Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

[Clancy]

Yes, dew points are going higher than expected in the models. I think this may not be the problem we were hypothesizing earlier. It may come down to storm interaction in the moment. The models are consistently splitting supercells with left movers, so we'll have to see how that affects things.

Yeah, though moisture was a question I had this morning, it wasn't the main question mark. Real-time convective evolution will be key, and exactly how that pans out is anyone's guess for now.

 

[TH2002]

Kerr sucks

No disrespect, but that's the most weather Twittery comment I've seen from a member on this thread so far

 

[Maxis_s]

Curious about this as well. Feels like the models are flopping big time.

Trey mentioned that the type of hodographs in the area favor left splits in storms I believe.

 

[Maxis_s]

No disrespect, but that's the most weather Twittery comment I've seen from a member on this thread so far

That's a completely fair statement to make. That was a really stupid thing of me to say.

 

[wx_guy]

I'm not well-versed on the physics involved in splitting of supercells (so the mets on here might want to weigh in), but this is what AI spit out for me when I ask it just now, out of curiosity:

=========

Left-splitting supercells are a less common but important type of supercell thunderstorm. Several factors contribute to their formation:

1. Straight Hodograph: Supercells typically form in environments with curved hodographs (a plot showing wind speed and direction with height). Straight hodographs are more favorable for splitting storms, as they create an environment where both cyclonic (counterclockwise) and anticyclonic (clockwise) rotation can develop and propagate equally.
2. Crosswise Vorticity: This refers to the amount of horizontal rotation perpendicular to the storm's movement.Higher amounts of crosswise vorticity, often associated with straight hodographs, promote storm splitting.
3. Dynamic Processes within the Storm: As a supercell evolves, complex interactions between updrafts (rising air) and downdrafts (sinking air) can cause the main updraft to split into two separate updrafts, each with its own rotation. This can lead to the storm splitting into two distinct cells, one moving left and the other moving right of the mean wind.

In Summary: Left-splitting supercells occur when a combination of environmental factors (like straight hodographs and crosswise vorticity) and internal storm dynamics cause the main updraft to split and form two separate rotating cells.
Additional Resources:

• Supercell Structure and Dynamics - National Weather Service:https://www.weather.gov/lmk/supercell/dynamics
• Splitting storm - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Splitting_storm

I hope this explanation is helpful! Let me know if you have any other questions.

=========

So maybe that helps?

 

[Casuarina Head]

Trey mentioned that the type of hodographs in the area favor left splits in storms I believe.

@Maxis_s I thought that would not be a problem given the orientation of the jet relative to the dry line and ample low-level turning?

 

[Tanner]

Joplin MO was a left-split storm if I remember correctly.

 

[jiharris0220]

Well, to reel this thread back on track. Cumulus field stretching from south TX to the panhandle with thunderstorms already developing near the dry line.

Waaay earlier than the hrrr had them initiate, this definitely well throw even more wrenches in the forecast.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Joplin MO was a left-split storm if I remember correctly.

I think that’s a bit beside the point. Up until now I was under the impression that straight hodographs would not be a problem over that part of the warm sector.

 

[wx_guy]

Well, to reel this thread back on track. Cumulus field stretching from south TX to the panhandle with thunderstorms already developing near the dry line.

Waaay earlier than the hrrr had them initiate, this definitely well throw even more wrenches in the forecast.
View attachment 27760

Yes, HRRR didn't have them initiating until around 22z, so this is a good 3-4 hours ahead of schedule. Wonder how that will affect things.

 

[slenker]

Joplin MO was a left-split storm if I remember correctly.

Joplin was a left split but ended up getting a lot of help from constructive interference, storms just behind/underneath it created that monster.

 

[atrainguy]

Well, to reel this thread back on track. Cumulus field stretching from south TX to the panhandle with thunderstorms already developing near the dry line.

Waaay earlier than the hrrr had them initiate, this definitely well throw even more wrenches in the forecast.
View attachment 27760

Is the storms developing early potentially good or bad for tornado development? Or is this really up in the air at the moment as to what effect it'll have on everything?

 

[Jellyroll]

Joplin MO was a left-split storm if I remember correctly.

 

[TornadoFan]

Is the storms developing early potentially good or bad for tornado development? Or is this really up in the air at the moment as to what effect it'll have on everything?

Sounds like it's up in the air at the moment.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Is the storms developing early potentially good or bad for tornado development? Or is this really up in the air at the moment as to what effect it'll have on everything?

Up in the air

 

[wx_guy]

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 951

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

No disrespect, but that's the most weather Twittery comment I've seen from a member on this thread so far

Lol….least Bentley had enough sense increase the threat tomorrow. Back 10 percent hatched tornado ️

 

[atrainguy]

Sounds like it's up in the air at the moment.

Up in the air

Thanks!

 

[Kds86z]

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 951

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

Texas caveat to begin? Haha

 

[jiharris0220]

Is the storms developing early potentially good or bad for tornado development? Or is this really up in the air at the moment as to what effect it'll have on everything?

This event has already thrown every model off base so far with these storms, so honestly anything can happen at this point going forward.