Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

[Bevo]

The cells firing early in Texas is surprising -- the vast majority of models were forecasting them popping off between 5 - 7 PM in that northwestern corridor. I'm not sure how much, if any, bearing it'll have on later convection especially with them so spread out, but it just goes to show how difficult today's forecast is and how weather can be so unpredictable. Great call for the SPC to expand the ENH much further south into central Texas.

 

[jiharris0220]

The cells firing early in Texas is surprising -- the vast majority of models were forecasting them popping off between 5 - 7 PM in that northwestern corridor. I'm not sure how much, if any, bearing it'll have on later convection especially with them so spread out, but it just goes to show how difficult today's forecast is and how weather can be so unpredictable. Great call for the SPC to expand the ENH much further south into central Texas.

What’s surprising is that none of the cams forecasted this in the first place, weak cap, forcing, and strong upper level jet stream gives no reason for storm initiation to be that delayed.

 

[SmokeEater]

What’s surprising is that none of the cams forecasted this in the first place, weak cap, forcing, and strong upper level jet stream gives no reason for storm initiation to be that delayed.

At this point, I would throw the cams out and nowcast. As Fred said, they've all been horrible, and missing badly even now.

 

[Maxis_s]

19z observed dewpoints. Is that a bit of a dryline bulge forming in the TX panhandle?

 

[jiharris0220]

Much easier to see on the hourly mesoscale analysis.

There’s a definite dry line bulge present in the tx panhandle, which is likely responsible for the cumulus field there.

 

[wx_guy]

Already 3 storms blowing up over TX

 

[Maxis_s]

Much easier to see on the hourly mesoscale analysis.

There’s a definite dry line bulge present in the tx panhandle, which is likely responsible for the cumulus field there.
View attachment 27768

Can you screenshot it with the background instead of copy and pasting, I can't read that lol

 

[Clancy]

Can you screenshot it with the background instead of copy and pasting, I can't read that lol

POV: you looked at the SPC meso data you just downloaded to your computer and forgot they use gif format with transparency.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Those in the know: why are CAMs showing left-splitters early on? Given the dynamics, why are hodographs relatively straight along the Red River at first? Wouldn’t the type of forcing favour more right-movers instead?

 

[Maxis_s]

POV: you looked at the SPC meso data you just downloaded to your computer and forgot they use gif format with transparency.
View attachment 27770

Yuuup. Can't count how many times that's happened to me.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[jiharris0220]

Those in the know: why are CAMs showing left-splitters early on? Given the dynamics, why are hodographs relatively straight along the Red River at first? Wouldn’t the type of forcing favour more right-movers instead?

Holographs are straight at the red river because the LLJ doesn’t kick in until 7pm to curve them out.

Left splitters are common with pretty much every supercell regardless of dynamics in place.

 

[Maxis_s]

I'm gonna guess they're not gonna go High at 2000z. There's still so, so much uncertainty.

 

[jiharris0220]

Regardless of high risk or not is completely and utterly irrelevant at this point in time going forward.

 

[Maxis_s]

Regardless of high risk or not is completely and utterly irrelevant at this point in time going forward.

Fair enough. The only certainty we have on anything is that, if storms form in OK, they have a chance of producing long-tracked, violent tornadoes.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

I believe it's referencing the forecasted MCS late Sunday night into Monday morning. However, not all models are sold on the intensity of that portion of the event. If confidence were to increase, I wouldn't be surprised by a southward expansion of Slight Risk probs.

Gotcha. The wording would indicate that cellular development is possible ahead of the squall line, which I hadn’t seen in guidance when I was last at work.

 

[TornadoFan]

The NAM, ladies and gentlemen.

 

[Jpgood97]

Why is the storm south of Abilene, TX not tor warned?

 

[Jpgood97]

Screen grabs

 

[jiharris0220]

PDS coming soon.