Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

[Jpgood97]

After the next radar scan, things changed. I hadn’t checked in a while, and it caught me off guard

 

[Liberty4dayz]

got quite the hook on this storm...

 

[TornadoFan17]

View attachment 27771

It wouldn't shock me to see a small 2% TOR area over southern MS/AL when the new update comes

 

[slenker]

PDS coming soon.

I think it’s going to get nasty in a few hours.

 

[Clancy]

Low-level rotation not impressive, but that is definitely some healthy structure SW of Abilene.

 

[Maxis_s]

Edit: New messages weren't loading, my bad

 

[TH2002]

For some unknown reason I have a feeling the main "storm of the day" is going to be in southern Kansas rather than Oklahoma...

Don't take that as a forecast though.

 

[Kds86z]

View attachment 27796

Says possible supercells traveling over 100 miles

 

[Kds86z]

 

[TornadoFan]

That's uh...quite the MD.

 

[Jellyroll]

Waiting for the 02000

 

[OhOkayThen]

Latest runs seem to uptrend both today and tomorrow.

 

[cincywx]

Waiting for the 02000
View attachment 27798

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS....

..SUMMARY

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF INTENSE TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. GIANT
HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

EXPANDED ALL OUTLOOK CATEGORIES EASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI BASED ON
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
CONGEALING INTO A CLUSTER DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREME BUOYANCY (3500+ J/KG) CONTINUING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AMID ROBUST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. A FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTER CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND THE MODERATE FARTHER SOUTH INTO
NORTH TEXAS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. NUMEROUS
SUPERCELLS HAVE FORMED WEST OF THIS AREA AND SHOULD PERSIST AS THEY
CONTINUE EAST INTO A HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT NEAR 00Z AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PRIMARY RISK AREA. SEE MCD #954 FOR
ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION OF THE THREAT IN THIS AREA.

..BENTLEY.. 05/25/2024

 

[jiharris0220]

Hrrr pretty much back to what is showed during last night 0z run.

 

[TornadoFan]

Storms south of the Red River already showing some rotation.

 

[TornadoFan]

Looks like they really expanded the moderate risk.

 

[Jellyroll]

Thanks Cincy, guess I should have hit refresh once more instead of making a meme.

 

[TH2002]

Thanks Cincy, guess I should have hit refresh once more instead of making a meme.

Compulsory meme posting has become a part of TalkWeather.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Are the storms south of the Red River likely to limit destabilisation and inflow over the warm sector farther north, in OK, preventing those HRRR/NAM solutions?

 

[TornadoFan]

South of Seymour, TX