Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

[Kds86z]

Hrrr is now in more agreement with the nam on firing convection in central Oklahoma, and it’s organized convection too instead sloppy left movers.
View attachment 27754

Doesn’t show that Texas caveat

 

[Maxis_s]

Massive uptrend of dewpoints on 17z HRRR. Yeesh.

 

[rushdude]

It felt humid when I took my ol' dog for afternoon walk. They're predicting low 90s here in north TX.

 

[Bevo]

It felt humid when I took my ol' dog for afternoon walk. They're predicting low 90s here in north TX.

Whenever Dallas feels like Houston, I retreat into my cave I call a house like a vampire, resolving to not step into the sun.

 

[Kds86z]

Tornado hatched for tomorrow

 

[TornadoFan17]

Tornado hatched for tomorrow

Still can't believe just how inaccurate the previous D2 was.

 

[MichelleH]

Tornado hatched for tomorrow

Also expanded the slight and 2% tornado (I'm now in both) and added 5% tornado to extreme north AL.

 

[SmokeEater]

From OUN about an hr ago.

Wanted to caveat some of the explicit HRRR output I'm sure many of you are following. The HRRR continues to greatly underestimate the moisture return across central/southwest OK and western north TX. Mesonet obs show low to mid 70s dewpoints already reaching into our Texas counties with mid to upper 60s now into central and southwest OK. It remains to be seen how this could impact storm development later on, but if we see moisture hold up against the dryline (and not mix out as suggested by some of the CAMs) and further north, we could see more storms develop further north along the dryline, along with potential for a greater tornado risk earlier on with lower cloud bases. Something we will continue to watch the trends on over the next several hours.

 

[Maxis_s]

The HRRR continues to greatly underestimate the moisture return across central/southwest OK and western north TX.

17z HRRR forecast for 18z VS 18z observed
Even though 17z HRRR seriously uptrended in dewpoints compared to the last runs, it's still not even close

 

[slenker]

I feel like this is one of those days where if it hits the ceiling, a high risk would have been warranted, but if it hits the floor, a marginal risk would have been the right call. It’s extremely challenging to forecast an event like this, so the amount of people who bash the SPC for getting forecasts wrong is laughable. Do they think they could do better? I’d love to hear their thoughts on what happens before an event like this; I’d be willing to put money on the fact that every one of them would say a tornado outbreak is inevitable.

The weather is extremely challenging to predict and this day is showing how roller-coaster the models can go.

 

[wx_guy]

Yes, dew points are going higher than expected in the models. I think this may not be the problem we were hypothesizing earlier. It may come down to storm interaction in the moment. The models are consistently splitting supercells with left movers, so we'll have to see how that affects things.

 

[TornadoFan17]

Kerr sucks

Eh. There is a reason why he works for the NWS. I'll call out the NWS from time to time, but personal insults are unnecessary.

Don't bring that part of wx twitter here please.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Yes, dew points are going higher than expected in the models. I think this may not be the problem we were hypothesizing earlier. It may come down to storm interaction in the moment. The models are consistently splitting supercells with left movers, so we'll have to see how that affects things.

@wx_guy @Tempestas Tonitrua Given robust kinematics and improved moisture return, why is this is the case still on CAMs?

 

[OHWX97]

Kerr sucks

Can we not with these kind of comments?

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Yes, dew points are going higher than expected in the models. I think this may not be the problem we were hypothesizing earlier. It may come down to storm interaction in the moment. The models are consistently splitting supercells with left movers, so we'll have to see how that affects things.

Bingo. Pretty consistent signal for a long tracker, possibly on the northern Oklahoma-Kansas border. Then one in north west Texas. And a third in southern-Central OK that has the consistent splitting. Still a caveat. Although with that recent AFD, I’m now interested to see if the dryline in Northern Oklahoma convects.

 

[jiharris0220]

Kerr sucks

Dude, really?

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Can we not with these kind of comments?

Agreed. Toeing the line into wx twitter with that stuff.

 

[Jellyroll]

Concerning the day 2 outlook, could someone be so kind as to comment on whether Bently typically issues outlooks on his own?

 

[Maxis_s]

Poor wording, my bad. I meant to say that his forecast were just... not great the past few days. I get a bit snappy at times.

 

[slenker]

Given robust kinematics and improved moisture return, why is this is the case still on CAMs?

Curious about this as well. Feels like the models are flopping big time.