Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

[Maxis_s]

Real talk, has there ever been a sounding, even a forecast one, remotely close to this one?

 

[Casuarina Head]

Real talk, has there ever been a sounding, even a forecast one, remotely close to this one?

Uncontaminated too, if I read correctly?

 

[rushdude]

In the words of Mr. Horse from Ren and Stimpy:
"No sir, I do not like it"

 

[Maxis_s]

Uncontaminated too, if I read correctly?

Yep. That's horrifying.

 

[jiharris0220]

That sounding looks like it was made up in a hypothetical tornadoes fandom page.

 

[Maxis_s]

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Seems like game on again ….

 

[CentralKyWeather]

Have to admit Western Kentucky looks prime for Sunday afternoon. A weakening MCS will be exiting the area around 10am. After this clearing looks to be expected until after 3pm. I will be staying close to home tommorow chasing.

 

[MidTNWx]

View attachment 27749
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Nice parameter space for a mature supercell to drop an EF7

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Uncontaminated too, if I read correctly?

Correct. Taken right in the EHN/5% hatched area. I don’t think the dew points will be that extreme into the moderate area, but if any cell is in that area wow.

The LLJ is being modeled to hit up to 50+ knots tonight in some places so that helps that hodograph too

 

[Maxis_s]

Correct. Taken right in the EHN/5% hatched area. I don’t think the dew points will be that extreme into the moderate area, but if any cell is in that area wow.

That would be a tornado of guaranteed EF5 strength for sure, good lord

 

[Maxis_s]

Contaminated but wow.

 

[Casuarina Head]

The amazing thing is that the 1630Z D1 outlook does not adjust the hatched area(s) or overall tenor even the least vs. 12Z (the 2%/5% areas have even been expanded a bit). The 15% has only been trimmed relative to 1630Z yesterday. Given all the uncertainties the latest outlook is remarkably aggressive.

 

[jiharris0220]

Big time uptrend/correction of dew points on the latest hrrr run, the model is desperately playing catch up.

 

[Maxis_s]

What uncertainties still remain today?

 

[Muwx]

The amazing thing is that the 1630Z D1 outlook does not adjust the hatched area(s) or overall tenor even the least vs. 12Z (the 2%/5% areas have even been expanded a bit). The 15% has only been trimmed relative to 1630Z yesterday. Given all the uncertainties the latest outlook is remarkably aggressive.

Not really that surprising. They rarely walk back outlooks at this range.

 

[Bevo]

I suspected they'd expand the ENH area to cover points of the west part of DFW metro, hail-driven. Again. We've had sig-severe hail probs all week at this point.

 

[Jellyroll]

2008-2015 similar synoptic settings and geographical areas.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Big time uptrend/correction of dew points on the latest hrrr run, the model is desperately playing catch up.
View attachment 27750View attachment 27751

@jiharris0220 So if trends hold a HIGH Risk may verify after all, even if SPC does not upgrade? After all the 12Z NAM solution might meet HIGH criteria.

 

[rushdude]

I suspected they'd expand the ENH area to cover points of the west part of DFW metro, hail-driven. Again. We've had sig-severe hail probs all week at this point.

5% TOR risk isn't much to sleep on