Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Big time uptrend/correction of dew points on the latest hrrr run, the model is desperately playing catch up.
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Yeah, that very bottom left corner of Oklahoma is popping a 66 dewpoint on mesonet

 

[jiharris0220]

Hrrr is now in more agreement with the nam on firing convection in central Oklahoma, and it’s organized convection too instead sloppy left movers.

 

[Evan]

Big time uptrend/correction of dew points on the latest hrrr run, the model is desperately playing catch up.
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It's been majorly behind on moisture advection thus far.

 

[Evan]

The amazing thing is that the 1630Z D1 outlook does not adjust the hatched area(s) or overall tenor even the least vs. 12Z (the 2%/5% areas have even been expanded a bit). The 15% has only been trimmed relative to 1630Z yesterday. Given all the uncertainties the latest outlook is remarkably aggressive.

I don't agree. I think some of the uncertainties have begun to be resolved. Plus, it's a forecast...the potential is absolutely there, and as some of the uncertainties have been resolved this morning, it would actually be more aggressive to dial things back than maintain.

 

[Tanner]

Hrrr is now in more agreement with the nam on firing convection in central Oklahoma, and it’s organized convection too instead sloppy left movers.
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People are going to be so regretty spaghetti after calling today off early. We’ve seen downtrends in the prior overnight models so much before big events, just for them to uptrend back right before.

 

[jiharris0220]

People are going to be so regretty spaghetti after calling today off early. We’ve seen downtrends in the prior overnight models so much before big events, just for them to uptrend back right before.

Yeah, these really big potential tornado outbreaks seem to love trending down until the last second, this latest hrrr run also trends back with a stronger LLJ as well.

 

[Maxis_s]

People are going to be so regretty spaghetti after calling today off early. We’ve seen downtrends in the prior overnight models so much before big events, just for them to uptrend back right before.

I'm still a bit skeptical but the ceiling is so incredibly high. The uptrend/recovery did catch me a bit off guard though, so I'm starting to doubt less the severity of today.

 

[Evan]

I'm still a bit skeptical but the ceiling is so incredibly high. The uptrend/recovery did catch me a bit off guard though, so I'm starting to doubt less the severity of today.

I still have some concerns with whether or not the moisture advection can keep up with rising air temps, however, thus far the trend is that it can in many places. Then we come to initiation...

Next few hours should be clarifying (aren't they always?).

 

[Maxis_s]

I still have some concerns with whether or not the moisture advection can keep up with rising air temps, however, thus far the trend is that it can in many places. Then we come to initiation...

Next few hours should be clarifying (aren't they always?).

Funny enough, I knew models were gonna completely fall apart after the 00z runs. And I was right.

 

[Kds86z]

When will we know if Texas sets off convection?

 

[TornadoFan]

Me after seeing that latest HRRR run.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Maxis_s]

CAMs are cool and all, but I prefer observed conditions

 

[cg9450]

I really wish the atmosphere would quit playing with my emotions

 

[Kds86z]

I’m still not sold.. it’s early yet

 

[Maxis_s]

Everything's uptrending again...
2000z upgrade, maybe?

 

[Kds86z]

Everything's uptrending again...
2000z upgrade, maybe?

How so?

 

[Maxis_s]

How so?

Moisture overperforming compared to models, cyclogenesis seems to be ongoing (and stronger than forecasted), and now the NAM is showing the LLJ absolutely cranking again, even more than before possibly.
Still uncertain but I do think we're in store for a long, long day.

 

[Kds86z]

Moisture overperforming compared to models, cyclogenesis seems to be ongoing (and stronger than forecasted), and now the NAM is showing the LLJ absolutely cranking again, even more than before possibly.
Still uncertain but I do think we're in store for a long, long day.

I still worry about Texas. The left splits

 

[Bevo]

5% TOR risk isn't much to sleep on

Yep — going from no risk area to 2% to 5% in the span of a day should deserve attention. I’m a little surprised our NWS hasn’t updated their Area Forecast Discussion by now.