• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

It felt humid when I took my ol' dog for afternoon walk. They're predicting low 90s here in north TX.

1pdni9.jpg
 
From OUN about an hr ago.

Wanted to caveat some of the explicit HRRR output I'm sure many of you are following. The HRRR continues to greatly underestimate the moisture return across central/southwest OK and western north TX. Mesonet obs show low to mid 70s dewpoints already reaching into our Texas counties with mid to upper 60s now into central and southwest OK. It remains to be seen how this could impact storm development later on, but if we see moisture hold up against the dryline (and not mix out as suggested by some of the CAMs) and further north, we could see more storms develop further north along the dryline, along with potential for a greater tornado risk earlier on with lower cloud bases. Something we will continue to watch the trends on over the next several hours.
 
I feel like this is one of those days where if it hits the ceiling, a high risk would have been warranted, but if it hits the floor, a marginal risk would have been the right call. It’s extremely challenging to forecast an event like this, so the amount of people who bash the SPC for getting forecasts wrong is laughable. Do they think they could do better? I’d love to hear their thoughts on what happens before an event like this; I’d be willing to put money on the fact that every one of them would say a tornado outbreak is inevitable.

The weather is extremely challenging to predict and this day is showing how roller-coaster the models can go.
 
Yes, dew points are going higher than expected in the models. I think this may not be the problem we were hypothesizing earlier. It may come down to storm interaction in the moment. The models are consistently splitting supercells with left movers, so we'll have to see how that affects things.
 
wx_guy said:
Yes, dew points are going higher than expected in the models. I think this may not be the problem we were hypothesizing earlier. It may come down to storm interaction in the moment. The models are consistently splitting supercells with left movers, so we'll have to see how that affects things.
Click to expand...
@wx_guy @Tempestas Tonitrua Given robust kinematics and improved moisture return, why is this is the case still on CAMs?
 
wx_guy said:
Yes, dew points are going higher than expected in the models. I think this may not be the problem we were hypothesizing earlier. It may come down to storm interaction in the moment. The models are consistently splitting supercells with left movers, so we'll have to see how that affects things.
Click to expand...
Bingo. Pretty consistent signal for a long tracker, possibly on the northern Oklahoma-Kansas border. Then one in north west Texas. And a third in southern-Central OK that has the consistent splitting. Still a caveat. Although with that recent AFD, I’m now interested to see if the dryline in Northern Oklahoma convects.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top