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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 10/31-11/2

SREF likes the slower timing. 18z on Thursday...

uNpkXGY.png
 
Yeah everything is converging on the Thursday PM scenario. Can't sleep on Wednesday evening's threat further west either.
 
Kory said:
SREF likes the slower timing. 18z on Thursday...
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How do you get to the SFREF? The only one I can find on SPC is a static current hour view.
 
NAM has one heck of a bow echo pushing through the region.. also continuing the slowing trend.

The NAM is still failing to organize a surface low for some odd reason.. which is a big deviation from the globals.
 
There's some pretty good pressure falls that keep the surface winds backed ahead of the boundary...and quite strongly at that. So even if the main surface low is weak and scoots NE, that won't mean much.
 
CAPE doesn't look impressive, but NAM 18Z helicity looked healthy near Butts/Monroe area

(I might travel down I-16 from Dallas on Thursday)
 
Day 2 ENH in southeast TX and west LA. Day 3 SLGT but only a mention of "a tornado or two." They really are slow-playing this one (although given the model inconsistency I can't entirely blame them).
 
The lack of instability across the models is what is hampering the SPC from pulling the trigger for 11/1. Things still look to go cellular/LEWP across AL Thursday morning into afternoon.
 
0z Euro has storms coming into Alabama at around 11am Thursday, and then those clear out by late afternoon. Then the Euro tries to get a second round of storms going for North Alabama a couple hour later. So I guess it depends on whether or not we can recover from the first round if we get a second round of strong-severe storms.
 
rolltide_130 said:
By a substantial amount too.. also seeing instability creep further north.
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we dont need a lot but we at least need some instability here in central and north alabama for any shot at severe wx. So far nam and gfs just dont show much of anything. I havent looked at the euro. Interested to see how this plays out.
 
amp1998 said:
It also doesn't really generate a surface low near the Gulf Coast. Generates a low near Tupelo, Ms near 1000mb at 12z. This looks like a more realistic solution.
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I agree... slp develops near tupelo. That will aid in backing the winds areas central north Alabama need pay close attention still... any instability uptick at all will be more fire... think n pretty sure my area west tn outside looking in on this system... nexts weeks... that maybe a entirely different story....
 
Yeah, this still looks like a legitimate tornado threat for the Gulf Coast and a pretty nasty QLCS.

The 3km NAM has several large UH streaks across South Louisiana with discrete convection ahead of the QLCS.
 
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Kory said:
I don't want to poo poo on a meteorologist, but man, Rose at BMX is always a let down with his AFDs.
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Yeah he seems pretty dead set on this being exclusively south of 85 which I'm not sold on. I think the threat extends all the way up into S TN with the higher threat being in central/southern AL.. but that the northern areas should not be discounted. HUN did a good job of mentioning this despite low CAPE values.
 
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