we dont need a lot but we at least need some instability here in central and north alabama for any shot at severe wx. So far nam and gfs just dont show much of anything. I havent looked at the euro. Interested to see how this plays out.By a substantial amount too.. also seeing instability creep further north.
I agree... slp develops near tupelo. That will aid in backing the winds areas central north Alabama need pay close attention still... any instability uptick at all will be more fire... think n pretty sure my area west tn outside looking in on this system... nexts weeks... that maybe a entirely different story....It also doesn't really generate a surface low near the Gulf Coast. Generates a low near Tupelo, Ms near 1000mb at 12z. This looks like a more realistic solution.
Yeah he seems pretty dead set on this being exclusively south of 85 which I'm not sold on. I think the threat extends all the way up into S TN with the higher threat being in central/southern AL.. but that the northern areas should not be discounted. HUN did a good job of mentioning this despite low CAPE values.I don't want to poo poo on a meteorologist, but man, Rose at BMX is always a let down with his AFDs.