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  • Current Tropical Systems
    Melissa

Severe Weather 2023

JPWX said:
Gotta watch the 20th through 22nd for you know. More Severe Weather! I can just hear the entire Gulf Coast states with a resounding YAY!

Honestly, I'm tired, but you know the drill. It is April.
Click to expand...

It needs to stay far away from North Alabama the 22nd. My son has a pro wrestling show that night to put on.
 
Wild stuff in Ft. Lauderdale last night. A Supercell T'Storm sat Stationary for hours and dumped 22.59" of rain over the course of several hours. That is almost half a years worth of rain for Ft. Lauderdale in around 7-8 hours. They received 25.39" in that 24 hour period. As you can imagine it caused some big time flooding. Just absurd and probably one of the craziest things I have ever seen.

 
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From the latest D1
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes, along with damaging gusts and isolated large hail,
are possible today across parts of the Southeast. Isolated severe
gusts also are possible this afternoon over the central High Plains.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, pattern blockiness over the south-central/
southeastern CONUS will erode, as a synoptic-scale trough progresses
slowly but steadily across the Intermountain West and Great Basin.
Related height falls will spread eastward across the Rockies and
adjoining High Plains from MT to west TX. As that occurs, a 500-mb
cyclone -- centered initially over southern LA -- will accelerate
northeastward, reaching northern AL by the end of the period.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed the low related to the LA
cyclone aloft, moving northward near the AL Coast. A warm front was
drawn from the low east-southeastward along the FL Panhandle Coast
past AAF, then across Apalachee Bay and the north-central FL
Peninsula. The surface low should move northwestward across
southwestern AL, occlude over southeastern MS, and unite with the
mid/upper cyclone center over central MS, around 00Z. By that time,
the warm front should reach central AL, south-central GA, and
northeastern FL, with a hybrid sea-breeze boundary and broader-scale
low-level convergence line southward down Atlantic coastal counties
of the peninsula. Overnight, the surface low should fill and take a
wobbly path across northern MS. The warm front should moves
northward to northern parts of AL/GA and central/southern SC, and
weakens somewhat.

Meanwhile, under the height falls, a lee trough will become better-
defined across the High Plains south of a low analyzed at 11Z near
LAR. A wavy front was drawn from the low across western NE, to
another weak low between HON-ATY, to southern MN and northern WI.
This front should remain quasistationary into this evening.
Overnight cyclogenesis over MN will lead to the boundary shifting
southeastward as a cold front over northeastern CO, central/
southwestern NE and southeastern SD by 12Z tomorrow.

...Southeast...
At least a couple bands of scattered thunderstorms are expected
today across the outlook area, with embedded supercells offering the
greatest tornado potential, along with sporadic hail. Damaging
nontornadic gusts are possible as well. For the near-term threat
across the central/eastern FL Panhandle and adjacent parts of
southeastern AL and southwestern GA, refer to SPC tornado watch 133
and related mesoscale discussions.

The greatest tornado potential will exist locally wherever a
sustained, mature supercell can interact with a narrow, northward-
shifting corridor in the warm-frontal zone featuring the overlap of:

1. Locally maximized low-level lift,
2. Relatively maximized boundary-layer vorticity,
3. Backed surface flow beneath the southern rim of an easterly to
southeasterly LLJ, leading to enlarged hodographs and 150-300 J/kg
effective SRH,
4. The northern fringe of a richly moist, surface-based,
warm-sector boundary later characterized by upper 60s to low 70s F
surface dewpoints, underlying
5. Steep midlevel lapse rates, especially in closer proximity to
the cold-core mid/upper low.

Diurnal heating, by contrast, may be stronger and longer-lasting
with eastward/southeastward extent from the low. The net result
should be a northwestward-narrowing corridor of warm-sector MLCAPE
extending just into the frontal zone, and ranging from about 1000-
1500 J/kg across most of FL and southern GA, to around 500-1000 J/kg
shifting northward over southern/central AL and extreme eastern MS,
east of the low. A relative concentration in both convective
coverage and CAPE/shear parameter-space overlap has become apparent
across parts of southeastern AL and south-central GA, supporting an
upgrade in tornado probabilities. Vertical shear farther south down
the convergence/sea-breeze zone in eastern FL will lead to messier,
more multicellular mode, but with isolated supercells still possible
(especially near localized boundary intersections). The overall
severe threat should diminish this evening and overnight as the
deep-layer cyclone penetrates further inland, the surface low and
lift each weaken, and the air mass relative to the warm-front
position stabilizes.

...Central High Plains...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon near the lee trough, in a zone of overlap between
favorable diurnal heating (to near convective temperature) and
low-level convergence. Activity will form atop a marginally moist,
deep boundary layer, with steep low/middle-level lapse rates and
generally 40s F surface dewpoints. The main concern will be locally
strong-severe downdrafts accelerating through the well-mixed
subcloud layer. Diabatic, low-level stabilization should reduce the
convective/severe potential with time during early evening.

..Edwards/Smith.. 04/13/2023
Click to expand...
 
Heard they shut down the airport until Friday because of how much rain. Still can't believe 25 inches of rain fell over one city in less than 24 hours and 20 inches in 6 hours I mean good grief
 
D7 up for next Thursday:

...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8...
On Wednesday, west-southwest mid-level flow is forecast to become
established across much of the southwestern U.S. Moisture return
will likely continue across the southern and central Plains, where
model forecasts show 60+ surface dewpoints over the eastern half of
Texas into eastern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas by late afternoon.
Large-scale ascent is forecast to be primarily focused across the
central Plains. In response, scattered thunderstorm development will
be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from eastern Kansas
northward into the mid Missouri Valley. The greatest convective
coverage appears likely to be during the evening into the overnight,
along the nose of a low-level jet from eastern Kansas northward into
the mid Missouri Valley. Isolated wind damage and hail will be
possible with the stronger thunderstorms. The current thinking is
that any substantial severe threat will remain localized, and in
areas where more instability develops.

On Thursday, a cyclonic mid-level pattern is forecast across much of
the western and central U.S. The moist axis, along with a dryline,
is forecast to be in place from northwest Texas into western
Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Scattered thunderstorm will be
possible to the east of the dryline during the afternoon and
evening. Model forecast instability and deep-layer shear suggests
that an isolated large hail and wind damage threat will be possible
with supercells. Although there is some uncertainty as to the
spacing of the severe threat, a 15 percent area has been added
across parts of the southern and central Plains into the Ozarks,
where the combination of moisture, instability and deep-layer shear
is forecast to be the greatest.

A severe threat could also develop on Friday ahead of a cold front
moving through the Mississippi Valley. At this range, the model
solutions move a mid-level jet into the central U.S., but have large
differences concerning the placement of the moist axis. This
introduces a large amount of uncertainty concerning the spacing of
any severe threat.
Click to expand...

SPC3.jpg
 
...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8...
From Friday into Saturday, the models move an upper-level trough
across the eastern half of the nation. An associated cold front is
forecast to move from the Mississippi Valley to the Eastern
Seaboard. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front
on both days. More instability is forecast ahead of the front on
Friday, suggesting a potential for isolated severe storms during the
afternoon and evening. Based on the ECMWF, the greatest severe
potential would exist ahead of the trough in the Tennessee Valley.
However, the various model solutions are widely dispersed suggesting
that uncertainty is substantial late in the period.

If it has to happen, then yes, please happen Friday and not Saturday!!

Lion King Please GIF
 
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