Severe Weather 2023

[KevinH]

CIPS probs for April 30th

All Severe:



Tornado:

Source: CIPS Experimental Analog-Based Severe Probability Guidance

 

[KevinH]

Also decided to "Check the Chiclets" because I hadnt in a while. Kind of wish I didnt look.







Source: CFS Severe Weather Guidance Dashboard

 

[KevinH]

CIPS probs for April 29th

All Severe (wind and hail driven specifically):


Tornado (WOO HOO!):


Source: CIPS Experimental Analog-Based Severe Probability Guidance

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Next Friday.....Cinco De Mayo......is looking pretty juicy on the GFS.

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

A bit of an ‘edge of the knife’ forecast for Florida overnight tonight. A second round of storms is forecast to develop and cross the peninsula overnight. Depending on air mass recovery we could see anything from just rain to significant tornadoes per the most recent SPC forecast. Could be a long night down here.

 

[Tanner]

Quite surprised looking at the trends in the long-range for severe weather. Nothing really screams impressive for any severe weather events. We all thought April was going to be nuts, but it turned out to be just the opposite actually. We haven't really had an active May at all since 2019, and trends are favoring a less active month this year. Strange spring so far.

 

[ColdFront]

Quite surprised looking at the trends in the long-range for severe weather. Nothing really screams impressive for any severe weather events. We all thought April was going to be nuts, but it turned out to be just the opposite actually. We haven't really had an active May at all since 2019, and trends are favoring a less active month this year. Strange spring so far.

Agreed.

There’s some possible plains set ups around Mid-May but it doesn’t look that promising right now which can change. I think Dixie may be in the clear minus a major system coming through in May which isn’t modeled.

I really believe our zenith months for this year was January through March and then the event of the year on March 31st.

We had “some” signals for a possible Dixie event on the 27th but it was more gulf focused. Outside of the Oklahoma surprise a while back, that “lull” we thought would
Last two weeks ended up lasting a month lol.

 

[Tanner]

Agreed.

There’s some possible plains set ups around Mid-May but it doesn’t look that promising right now which can change. I think Dixie may be in the clear minus a major system coming through in May which isn’t modeled.

I really believe our zenith months for this year was January through March and then the event of the year on March 31st.

We had “some” signals for a possible Dixie event on the 27th but it was more gulf focused. Outside of the Oklahoma surprise a while back, that “lull” we thought would
Last two weeks ended up lasting a month lol.

While a slow peak season seems good and all for all intensive reasons, I'm pretty frustrated admittedly because I really wanted to follow through with my chasecation around mid-late May. But it's not worth the gas money if I'm only chasing blue skies.

 

[TH2002]

The GFS is picking up on a tornado threat developing in Oklahoma (roughly the same areas as the April 19 outbreak) in its Thu 21z-Fri 00z run. A more conditional but still noteworthy threat for tornadoes could also develop in the Wichita area. This is within the timeframe the SPC is eyeing in its D5 outlook, but predictability remains low.

 

[TornadoFan]

Big tornado in Virginia Beach today.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Confirmed damage in Virginia Beach. Listening to the scanner feed now.

 

[Equus]

That looks an easy sigtor too

 

[Steel Central]

VBEMS Scanner: 2269 Haversham, body in water

 

[TH2002]

What on earth is it with all these marginal setups producing significant tornadoes lately? Two EF2's in Florida (Hosford and Palm Beach) came out of 5% tornado areas and now a significant Virginia tornado comes out of a 2% area. Meanwhile, two nearly successive 10% hatched tornado areas in Texas have produced monstrous hailers and incredibly intimidating supercells w/ intense mesocyclones, but failed to put down tornadoes for more than a couple minutes at a time. I guess if anyone needed a reminder that predicting the weather is an imperfect science, there you go.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

What on earth is it with all these marginal setups producing significant tornadoes lately? Two EF2's in Florida (Hosford and Palm Beach) came out of 5% tornado areas and now a significant Virginia tornado comes out of a 2% area. Meanwhile, two nearly successive 10% hatched tornado areas in Texas have produced monstrous hailers and incredibly intimidating supercells w/ intense mesocyclones, but failed to put down tornadoes for more than a couple minutes at a time. I guess if anyone needed a reminder that predicting the weather is an imperfect science, there you go.

To be fair, Friday's event in TX was a 5% on the tornado probability, but I was surprised the storms of the day on both Wednesday and Friday didn't produce something more substantial in that department.

 

[TH2002]

To be fair, Friday's event in TX was a 5% on the tornado probability, but I was surprised the storms of the day on both Wednesday and Friday didn't produce something more substantial in that department.

You're correct. I know April 26 was a 10% hatched area for tornadoes and that's what I was thinking of. Still, genuinely perplexed that the aforementioned setups in Texas (including Friday's cell complete w/ a velocity signature that screamed "VIOLENT TORNADO") barely managed to put anything down, yet Thursday's marginal setup in Florida, yesterday's Palm Beach surprise and now today's marginal setup in eastern Virginia didn't hesitate to drop significant tornadoes.

 

[Austin Dawg]

But I thought I heard the Severe Season was over?

 

[TH2002]

But I thought I heard the Severe Season was over?

 

[JPWX]

Looks like Dixie might see a threat late this week. Paging @KevinH

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Looks like Dixie might see a threat late this week. Paging @KevinH

Nah I'll do it

EDIT: I did it