Severe Weather 2023

[KevinH]

Posting this because it is inevitable.

Here’s to a QUIET severe weather year though.

 

[KevinH]

Looks like we MAY have a couple of systems to watch within the first week of January (Jan 2-3, and Jan 5-6)….. MAYBE.

EDIT: The Jan 5-6 system could be the more significant system BUT as well all know, things could change either way between now and then.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Yep, Monday looks of more concern on the severity level than the end of this week threat.

 

[KevinH]

Yep, Monday looks of more concern on the severity level than the end of this week threat.

And from what Fred says the 5-6 system could be more concerning that the 2-3 system…

 

[KevinH]

 

[Fred Gossage]

And from what Fred says the 5-6 system could be more concerning that the 2-3 system…

We'll see... as is often the case, the GFS heard me say that and went off into left field right after I made that post.

 

[KevinH]

We'll see... as is often the case, the GFS heard me say that and went off into left field right after I made that post.

Shocker.. lol

Definitely things to keep an eye on for now…

 

[JPWX]

Basically we're looking at multiple severe weather and heavy rain risks late this week through the first 2 weeks of January 23.

 

[UK_EF4]

Yikes...
GFS box average sounding along AR/MS border at 21z on Monday the 2nd. Obviously just one run and quite far out, but if this sort of trend continues then 2023 may start off with significant severe weather. Worth keeping an eye on for now like others have said.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

All I can say for now is,This thread is fixing pick up business ….

 

[JPWX]

After a wild Christmas week with the coldest air in 33 years and so far this winter season over the majority of the nation, we switch the pattern towards wet/mild.

Starting late this week and continuing through the first 2 weeks of January, we will see multiple heavy rain/flash flood and severe weather threats. Total rainfall amounts through next Tuesday are in the 2 to 4 inch range across Northwest MS with amounts up to 5 inches back in Arkansas.

The first storm system is expected to move through late Thursday through Saturday. For now, the greatest risk of strong to severe storms would be found across South-Central MS and along the Gulf Coast. Primary threats: damaging winds and a few isolated tornadoes. For North MS, the primary risk would be heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally 3+ and isolated flash flooding.

We'll see a brief break on Sunday before the next system arrives Monday and through Wednesday. This system has potential to bring a greater and more widespread severe weather threat along with additional 2+ inch rainfall amounts. Depending on how much rain falls with the first system, a Flash Flood or Flash Flood Watch might be warranted across some areas of the South.

The 3rd storm system is expected to impact the Gulf Coast states towards the end of next week into the following weekend. This system too has potential to bring heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and a severe weather risk.

Get ready for a wild end to 22 and a wild start to 23!

 

[Clancy]

SPC put out a big D6 15% for Monday.

 

[KevinH]

SPC put out a big D6 15% for Monday.
View attachment 16226

Yep

There is now a thread for this possible event:

Severe WX - Severe Weather Threat - Jan 2nd - Jan 4th, 2023

A very expansive warm sector and low level jet showing on several models.

talkweather.com

 

[Clancy]

Yep

There is now a thread for this possible event:

Severe WX - Severe Weather Threat - Jan 2nd - Jan 4th, 2023

A very expansive warm sector and low level jet showing on several models.

talkweather.com

Oh dang, sorry about that, I totally missed it!

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

So I always do a long range analysis the day after we have severe weather. I always want to know what is next. Just finished today's analysis.
Too far out to see true severe potential, but it looks like we have rain/storm chances on the following dates:

Around January 7-8
Around January 12-13
Around January 16-18

All of these date ranges are supported by GFS and ECMWF.
We are almost in the NAM range for January 7-8....and at the moment it appears to mostly be a rain event with a marginal risk.

Way too far out to know how January 12-18 will play out but it appears there will be a few rounds of activity.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The 12-13th period is modestly interesting at this range.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

What irritates me is that 12-13 and 16-18 are all on weekdays.

 

[KevinH]

So I always do a long range analysis the day after we have severe weather. I always want to know what is next. Just finished today's analysis.
Too far out to see true severe potential, but it looks like we have rain/storm chances on the following dates:

Around January 7-8
Around January 12-13
Around January 16-18

All of these date ranges are supported by GFS and ECMWF.
We are almost in the NAM range for January 7-8....and at the moment it appears to mostly be a rain event with a marginal risk.

Way too far out to know how January 12-18 will play out but it appears there will be a few rounds of activity.

Do you have any graphics you can share?

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

I'll have to combine some graphics. Might take me some time.
I'm mostly basing my forecasts off of moisture advection from dewpoint maps......and 500mb height/wind.

 

[KevinH]

I'll have to combine some graphics. Might take me some time.
I'm mostly basing my forecasts off of moisture advection from dewpoint maps......and 500mb height/wind.

Ok!