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Severe Weather 2023

TH2002

TH2002

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Unlike the last 2% tornado outlook in SoCal (the last one was on September 8, 2022 with the arrival of Tropical Storm Kay) - this one actually stuck in the D1 outlook. Not only that but the SPC expanded the original MRGL risk across CA and added a new risk area over eastern SoCal, northwest AZ and much of NV and UT. Let's not forget the addition of another 2% tornado area across the Inland Valley!
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In the South or Midwest a day like this wouldn't even be worth mentioning, but any kind of tornado threat enough to trip the SPC's alarms is pretty rare for us Cali folks. Of course, I'm not actually expecting to see a tornado, but by some off chance the unthinkable happens - I'll be ready!
 
CheeselandSkies

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KevinH said:
Just TOSSING this out there…

Click to expand...


It does seem to be that "transitory" state that really gets things cooking, which may have been the "missing ingredient" so to speak over the course of these last few Nina years. Again we've had significant events here and there and this no way lessens the impact of what has occurred. Of course 2011 skewed perceptions of what the bar for a high-end event/season is, but even without that it feels like it's been a long time since a tornado season produced like some years in the 1990s and 2000s. I don't seem to be alone in this which is why we have seen posts/threads asking if there's something on the larger climatic scale that is reducing the chances of the already-rare higher end outbreaks.

Before 2011, 2008 was my standard for an unrelenting, intense tornado season (Early January Midwest outbreak, Super Tuesday, March Atlanta area outbreak, early May Arkansas outbreak, mid-May sequence including Picher, OK and Stuttgart, AR, late-May sequence which included that extremely prolific day in Kansas that somehow managed to not hit much as well as Parkersburg a few days later and which essentially continued into mid-June).

With that and 2011 happening just three years apart (with 2009 being the only relatively quiet year in that stretch), perhaps that skewed my perception of what tornado seasons are like. Or perhaps prolific, high-impact tornado seasons come in clusters. Kind of like how we went 13 years without a Category 4+ hurricane landfall in the CONUS (from Charley in 2004 to Harvey in 2017), then all but one year since 2017 has featured at least one.
 
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T

Tennie

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CheeselandSkies said:
It does seem to be that "transitory" state that really gets things cooking, which may have been the "missing ingredient" so to speak over the course of these last few Nina years. Again we've had significant events here and there and this no way lessens the impact of what has occurred. Of course 2011 skewed perceptions of what the bar for a high-end event/season is, but even without that it feels like it's been a long time since a tornado season produced like some years in the 1990s and 2000s. I don't seem to be alone in this which is why we have seen posts/threads asking if there's something on the larger climatic scale that is reducing the chances of the already-rare higher end outbreaks.

Before 2011, 2008 was my standard for an unrelenting, intense tornado season (Early January Midwest outbreak, Super Tuesday, March Atlanta area outbreak, early May Arkansas outbreak, mid-May sequence including Picher, OK and Stuttgart, AR, late-May sequence which included that extremely prolific day in Kansas that somehow managed to not hit much as well as Parkersburg a few days later and which essentially continued into mid-June).

With that and 2011 happening just three years apart (with 2009 being the only relatively quiet year in that stretch), perhaps that skewed my perception of what tornado seasons are like. Or perhaps prolific, high-impact tornado seasons come in clusters. Kind of like how we went 13 years without a Category 4+ hurricane landfall in the CONUS (from Charley in 2004 to Harvey in 2017), then all but one year since 2017 one has featured at least one.
Click to expand...

This also reminds me of how there were at least several years in the 1990s whose tornado seasons saw some notable if not infamous events occur (look at 1991 and 1999 for good examples of this), as well as some quieter years in the mix--the first year of VORTEX1 (1994) was rather quiet, then the next year (1995) was rather active, a pattern that (interestingly enough) repeated itself during VORTEX2 (2009-10). And even some of the quiet years saw brief but noteworthy spurts of activity (why hello there, 2013!).

At this point, only time will tell as to what the weather will end up doing. All we can do in the meantime is to hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
 
JPWX

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I can't remember who told me or where I read it, but I've heard that towards the end of a 3 year La Nina you can see more active than normal Spring tornado seasons. I'm paraphrasing there but it's something like that. I've honestly drawn a blank on where I heard it.
 
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