I'll transfer my post there.FYI: There are threads now for both potential threats for the 12th and the 15th-17th.
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I'll transfer my post there.FYI: There are threads now for both potential threats for the 12th and the 15th-17th.
I see another risk of severe weather.
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There is a thread for this period too (although I may update the dates)I see another risk of severe weather.
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Jinx hahahahahahhaaKevin's thread may see life. https://talkweather.com/threads/severe-weather-threat-jan-15-17th-2023.2054/
Is that from a video he posted today?Ryan Hall Y’all was showing a pretty strong low right in the sweet spot for Dixie Alley severe. 200hrs out so will be interesting to see how it evolves or disappears completely.
Edit to add Jan 20 timeframe
Just TOSSING this out there…
It does seem to be that "transitory" state that really gets things cooking, which may have been the "missing ingredient" so to speak over the course of these last few Nina years. Again we've had significant events here and there and this no way lessens the impact of what has occurred. Of course 2011 skewed perceptions of what the bar for a high-end event/season is, but even without that it feels like it's been a long time since a tornado season produced like some years in the 1990s and 2000s. I don't seem to be alone in this which is why we have seen posts/threads asking if there's something on the larger climatic scale that is reducing the chances of the already-rare higher end outbreaks.
Before 2011, 2008 was my standard for an unrelenting, intense tornado season (Early January Midwest outbreak, Super Tuesday, March Atlanta area outbreak, early May Arkansas outbreak, mid-May sequence including Picher, OK and Stuttgart, AR, late-May sequence which included that extremely prolific day in Kansas that somehow managed to not hit much as well as Parkersburg a few days later and which essentially continued into mid-June).
With that and 2011 happening just three years apart (with 2009 being the only relatively quiet year in that stretch), perhaps that skewed my perception of what tornado seasons are like. Or perhaps prolific, high-impact tornado seasons come in clusters. Kind of like how we went 13 years without a Category 4+ hurricane landfall in the CONUS (from Charley in 2004 to Harvey in 2017), then all but one year since 2017 one has featured at least one.