Severe Weather 2023

[Weatherphreak]

The original Huntsville Anderson Hills tornado hit May 18, 1995 so definitely still have a couple weeks left for Dixie Alley.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Heading to the dog days of summer. Any organized severe threat seems unlikely for the southeast until fall. Atleast for me.

 

[TH2002]

The GFS is picking up on a tornado threat developing in Oklahoma (roughly the same areas as the April 19 outbreak) in its Thu 21z-Fri 00z run. A more conditional but still noteworthy threat for tornadoes could also develop in the Wichita area. This is within the timeframe the SPC is eyeing in its D5 outlook, but predictability remains low.

15% threat area added to the SPC's D4 outlook. GFS has not backed off on the tornado threat either.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I'm beginning to think Alabama and Mississippi's severe peak is late February and March now. And early April sometimes.

 

[Equus]

Virginia Beach rated EF3

 

[OHWX97]

Virginia Beach rated EF3

That makes it the strongest tornado to strike the Virginia Beach area in recorded history.

 

[Equus]

Looks like 145, getting some very brief but destructive tornadoes lately

 

[warneagle]

I somehow completely missed that that happened despite living about 150 miles away. That's two EF3+ tornadoes in the mid-Atlantic this year already.

 

[JPWX]

I've tried to find if there were more than 1 EF3+ tornadoes in April prior to 2023 across the Mid-Atlantic region, but so far I've found nothing to confirm that. Unofficially, this might be the first known April to feature multiple EF3 tornadoes across the Mid-Atlantic region. If anyone has or knows anything different, let me know.

 

[JPWX]

Meanwhile, NWS Memphis mentioning the potential for severe storms Saturday: "
Showers and thunderstorms
return to the forecast late Thursday night into Friday morning.
Deterministic model soundings are showing conditionally unstable to
unstable environments with maximum MLCAPE values around 3000J/kg.
There parameters support severe thunderstorms. The highest values
are currently showing Saturday afternoon-evening."

 

[KevinH]

Looks like Dixie might see a threat late this week. Paging @KevinH

I just saw this comment (as I came here to post about the D4-8 from today and apparently I don’t receive email notifications when someone tags me lol)….

From this morning’s SPC update, it SEEMS LIKE everything (for now) will be to the west of me (as it has been for the recent events).

BUT, we know Dixie does not play by the rules, but that is why I DO have email notifications enabled any time @Lake Martin EF4 anyone creates a new thread LOL!!!!

 

[KevinH]

I'm beginning to think Alabama and Mississippi's severe peak is late February and March now. And early April sometimes.

THIS year, yes lol

 

[KevinH]

Per the SPC D4-8 this morning, threads could be needed for periods after May 9th (SHOCKER!)

 

[Timhsv]

North Mississippi ...21Z Friday afternoon near MS/TN state line per 18Z NAM

 

[JPWX]

North Mississippi ...21Z Friday afternoon neat MS/TN state line per 18Z NAM

 

[pritchlaw]

My wife and daughter are going to Taylor Swift in Nashville Friday night. Spent all this time picking out what they were gonna wear and now everybody's outfits will be covered by ponchos. LOL.

 

[TH2002]

North Mississippi ...21Z Friday afternoon near MS/TN state line per 18Z NAM

Even the much more conservative GFS model manages to spit out a MRGL TOR sounding in that area. All it takes is one...

 

[TH2002]

Just when I thought every single video of the recent Virginia Beach tornado was filmed vertically, a national hero emerged:

 

[rushdude]

Temps near or in the 90s going into next week, with rain chances on every day but Tuesday?
I may keep an eye out. This is May, after all.

From my experience living in Texas since 2019, severe weather chances calm down after this month.. usually

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I just uploaded a little video from my dash-mounted GoPro from my chase in Illinois on National Stoner's Day (April 20th). Nothing too dramatic especially after Keota; the outside chance of an overachieving tornadic supercell didn't pan out as storms ended up largely high-precipitation and outflow dominant.

I got on this storm at Princeton and it was moving so fast that from that point on it was a mad dash east just to not get enveloped by the RFD gust front. It would periodically catch me as my road options were SW-NE instead of due east a lot of the time. I got a burst of small hail (unfortunately the GoPro was not recording at that moment) and later "something" - possibly a "gustnado"? - picked up a blast of loose soil and small debris from the field south of the road and blew it into my car.

Eventually pulled off at the ramp to I-39 just east of Troy Grove and let the photogenic gust front roll overhead, which made for a kinda nice timelapse.