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Severe Weather 2023

Actually lol both euro enables and GFS ensembles are identical in ridging, not sure what I was looking at lol, lol wtc was I looking at. I guess I'm on drugs hahah Screenshot_2023-02-21-18-12-33-63_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpgScreenshot_2023-02-21-18-10-18-55_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
 
So we're talking about the first 2 weeks of March roughly for this threat?
 
JPWX said:
So we're talking about the first 2 weeks of March roughly for this threat?
Click to expand...

We are talking late next week. March 2nd-4th.

Caution* these images will make you gulp.

00z EURO operational

BCE94444-F29F-4989-901F-C4E681F9C776.gif

00z Model Set with EURO control

F5C5AE1D-1A6E-4A01-AD51-46AB94228BAB.gif
 
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Taylor Campbell said:
We are talking late next week.

Caution* these images will make you gulp.

00z EURO operational

View attachment 18041

00z Model Set with EURO control

View attachment 18042
Click to expand...
That's what you call a significant system for the southeast we rarely get such a deep low pressure system. The thing is though it seems like with the past few systems they've kindve trended to more of less significant pressure.
 
I've always gone with the James spann motto, in his weather Xtreme videos on YouTube whenever he talks about a significant severe weather event for the southeast. He always says you want to see a sub 1000mb low pressure system around that Memphis southeast Arkansas/Missouri area. That typically brings your more substantial events. So if we keep this look, it wouldn't surprise me to see that talk. Of course there's other things that play in. But just your basic synoptic look of what I said they're will bring you a chance of significant severe in Alabama. But of course James doesn't like to comment on voodoo land stuff day 6-7 and beyond lol.
 
Yes, still lots of run-to-run variability which is to be expected, but all models really seem to be keying in on some sort of severe weather threat toward the end of next week/the weekend after this coming one. The 06Z GFS would be a 2-day event, 3/3 in LA/MS and 3/4 in AL/GA/possibly eastern TN/KY.
 
*Purely* for the sake of posterity, but 06Z GFS SCP and a sounding from West-Central GA. These would have me wide-eyed if they stayed like this.
1677080344261.png1677080373346.png
 
New thread for the possible 3/3-4/23 event!

talkweather.com

Severe Wx Threat Mar 3-4, 2023 (3/3 LA/MS), (3/4 AL/GA)

I hesitate to post this early BEFORE the SPC highlights a risk area, but there seems to be increased model consensus AND increased chatter/concern about this time period. We all know models flip flop and hopefully this potential event will flop. If it does, at least we will have had a good...
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UncleJuJu98 said:
Bro lol, it's to early hahah. but oh well
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My apologies, normally I wouldn’t create a thread this early unless the SPC highlights an area (which they wouldn’t do at D9/10 lol). The increase in comments in this thread and model consensus (which I know can change this far out) over the last 2 days changed my mind.

If this event is a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, then at least we will have had a good discussion in these coming days lol

I am watching, but won’t get “concerned” until about D3, maybe sooner if the SPC gives us “an orange” (highlights a 30% risk area w/in D4-8 lol)
 
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I'm surprised no one is talking about Sunday in TX and OK, multiple models showing a higher end event possible now. Day 5 enhanced. received_588590983313859.jpg

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk
 
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