Severe Weather 2023

[UncleJuJu98]

18z GFS is a significant severe look. I think the models are in the back and forth phase. Important to keep this in mind. But the placement is a good position for significant severe in the deep south. I see you 18z.. up here with these major looks.

 

[warneagle]

The fact that the past couple of weeks failed to produce at least one significant event, notwithstanding a generally favourable NHEM pattern and background, does not bode well for future tornado outbreaks. (Note: “significant” does not denote a historic event, but at least one outbreak with a couple of intense tornado families. A lone supercell doesn’t make the cut.) I’m still seeing a lot of excessive amplification, blocking, and subtropical interference, rather than the classical low-amplitude, progressive, polar-dominant setup. One would think we were in warm neutral or +ENSO rather than a third-year Niña with a well-established -PDO. We’ll likely need to wait until late March or later for our first possible High Risk of tornadoes.

I think this argument is making too many assumptions about how well the models are accurately depicting things at the fringe of their reliable range. After all, most of the expectations for this event were built on model data from roughly a week out. I think it would be a mistake to argue that there was some type of climatic trend based on whether every severe event that pops up in GFS/Euro fantasy land verified.

I'd also argue that the models themselves are a confounding variable here, since the short-range models and CAMs are still models rather than actual observations of the atmosphere, so you could just as easily argue that the problem is with the models rather than a genuine climatic trend.

Finally, I'd argue that to demonstrate a meaningful trend there, you'd need to identify a consistent failure mode for the events which have underperformed, which I don't think you can do with substantial rigor given the number of variables that are involved in an event coming together at the mesoscale level even when the synoptics are favorable.

Not saying you're wrong necessarily, just that I'm not sure there's a consistent trend rather than statistical noise related to the models themselves and physical phenomena prone to being affected by numerous minor variables.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

There is a definite trend on the GFS atleast of a more southern trough ejection and low.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

18Z GFS has flipped to a super-progressive solution for the first potential March system, where the surface low goes from the TX/OK border at 00Z 3/3 to near London, Ontario at 00Z 3/4. The warm sector is perfectly poised for a Dixie severe weather outbreak...for just a couple of hours in the middle of the night. LOL.

Lots of bouncing around to come...

 

[Clancy]

There is a definite trend on the GFS atleast of a more southern trough ejection and low.

Noooo thanks.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Very curious about late next week's potential. The EURO ensemble mean, UM model, and GFS were strong on the idea today.

 

[Austin Dawg]

You could take what I really do know and fill a thimble when it comes to the weather, but there seems to be lot of activity through March and a definite change in our pattern coming up in the long models. We need the rain in Central Texas. It's been quiet the past couple of years so we moved up in the drought map. Of course, Texas never does anything to halfway so one more afraid of floods fixing the drought problem

I'm not wishing a rough spring on anyone but the models look busy and we've had mostly quiet springs recently. In the US, our worst severe weather has been in the winter. There is one thing I am certain about with the weather. It's cyclic...never stays in the same pattern too long. It's gonna have to change sometime...

 

[UncleJuJu98]

06z GFS has a uptick in instability. With the 06z GFS system a bit further north than the significant severe look before. Euro ensemble's are having this thing eject way further north. While the GFS is more south I'll take middle of the road option and say it'll be ejecting through the Ohio Indiana Illinois area.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Current operational GFS is what my thinking as to what will happen. Pretty significant look, this event gets me nervous.a very deep low in a favorable position for the south.maybe it'll to the ole wrap around like the system tommorow and fizzle out lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Sounding from operational GFS for central Alabama is decent. This will change though. Still in the 6-7 day range, gunna be hitting the funky 4-5s soon.

 

[KevinH]

18z GFS is a significant severe look. I think the models are in the back and forth phase. Important to keep this in mind. But the placement is a good position for significant severe in the deep south. I see you 18z.. up here with these major looks. View attachment 18016

When is this valid for? Your pictures always get cropped lol

This looks like MS/AL/GA could be in trouble (if I am looking at this right)

 

[Taylor Campbell]

240hrs out I know, but not the only time this model or another has shown this period's ugly face.

 

[KevinH]

240hrs out I know, but not the only time this model or another has shown this period's ugly face.

View attachment 18032

View attachment 18033

SMH..

Welcome to spring… AGAIN

 

[Taylor Campbell]

OMG

 

[KevinH]

OMG

View attachment 18034

Not sure what this (could) mean???

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

OMG

View attachment 18034

She’s a beaut Clark. Now let’s uo tick instability and see what we have

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Lol watch this turn into the last cold spell and the typical March wintery look lol. Very weak ridge. The 240 hour one*. Lol it'll be close to a possible cold wintery spell event or a major severe, such a deep low in the southeast is dangerous. Ensembles support a trough digging a good bit, but how far will determine if it's a significant severe or a chance at some Wintery precip

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Lol watch this turn into the last cold spell and the typical March wintery look lol. Very weak ridge. The 240 hour one*. Lol it'll be close to a possible cold wintery spell event or a major severe, such a deep low in the southeast is dangerous. Ensembles support a trough digging a good bit, but how far will determine if it's a significant severe or a chance at some Wintery precip

This won’t be a winter threat . No way …. Not even close to any ensemble support

 

[KevinH]

This won’t be a winter threat . No way …. Not even close to any ensemble support

Well needless to say this spring in the Deep Dixie south could be…. interesting…… More than once…

SHOCKER lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

This won’t be a winter threat . No way …. Not even close to any ensemble support

With the GEFS ensembles it could, it'd be borderline being supported by the extremely deep upper low. Ignore this portion in parentheses lol (The EURO ensembles are not on board of such a southerly ejection with a stronger ridge. I'd watch how strong the ridge is on ensembles moving forward. The GFS and EURO will be complete opposites on ejection location until they have a good grasp on the strength of the ridge or location.)