Actually lol both euro enables and GFS ensembles are identical in ridging, not sure what I was looking at lol, lol wtc was I looking at. I guess I'm on drugs hahah 
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Severe Weather 2023
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
The global ensembles still support the idea of a favorable trough ejection for severe weather in the southeast around 8-9 day time frame
Still in voodoo land, but the operational GFS supports a major severe event in the south for the time frame, all you can really do at this point is just watch trends. The operational has been very consistent though.
JPWX
Member
So we're talking about the first 2 weeks of March roughly for this threat?
- Thread starter
- #345
KevinH
Member
So March ~2-3?? You and I may have to pay attention to this one lol
Not sure, I think the first week of March has potential for severe though
- Moderator
- #347
We are talking late next week. March 2nd-4th.
Caution* these images will make you gulp.
00z EURO operational
00z Model Set with EURO control
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That's what you call a significant system for the southeast we rarely get such a deep low pressure system. The thing is though it seems like with the past few systems they've kindve trended to more of less significant pressure.
I've always gone with the James spann motto, in his weather Xtreme videos on YouTube whenever he talks about a significant severe weather event for the southeast. He always says you want to see a sub 1000mb low pressure system around that Memphis southeast Arkansas/Missouri area. That typically brings your more substantial events. So if we keep this look, it wouldn't surprise me to see that talk. Of course there's other things that play in. But just your basic synoptic look of what I said they're will bring you a chance of significant severe in Alabama. But of course James doesn't like to comment on voodoo land stuff day 6-7 and beyond lol.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Yes, still lots of run-to-run variability which is to be expected, but all models really seem to be keying in on some sort of severe weather threat toward the end of next week/the weekend after this coming one. The 06Z GFS would be a 2-day event, 3/3 in LA/MS and 3/4 in AL/GA/possibly eastern TN/KY.
Clancy
Member
*Purely* for the sake of posterity, but 06Z GFS SCP and a sounding from West-Central GA. These would have me wide-eyed if they stayed like this.
- Thread starter
- #352
KevinH
Member
You said the magic words “West Central Georgia” (where I live) lol
- Thread starter
- #353
KevinH
Member
New thread for the possible 3/3-4/23 event!
talkweather.com
Severe Wx Threat Mar 3-4, 2023 (3/3 LA/MS), (3/4 AL/GA)
I hesitate to post this early BEFORE the SPC highlights a risk area, but there seems to be increased model consensus AND increased chatter/concern about this time period. We all know models flip flop and hopefully this potential event will flop. If it does, at least we will have had a good...
talkweather.com
Bro lol, it's to early hahah. but oh well
- Thread starter
- #355
KevinH
Member
My apologies, normally I wouldn’t create a thread this early unless the SPC highlights an area (which they wouldn’t do at D9/10 lol). The increase in comments in this thread and model consensus (which I know can change this far out) over the last 2 days changed my mind.
If this event is a bust, then at least we will have had a good discussion in these coming days lol
I am watching, but won’t get “concerned” until about D3, maybe sooner if the SPC gives us “an orange” (highlights a 30% risk area w/in D4-8 lol)
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- Thread starter
- #356
KevinH
Member
HEAVY emphasis on IF… lol
SmokeEater
Member
I'm surprised no one is talking about Sunday in TX and OK, multiple models showing a higher end event possible now. Day 5 enhanced. 
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Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk
- Thread starter
- #358
KevinH
Member
There is a thread for that day
Svr Wx Threat Sun 2/26/2023 (KS, OK, TX, MO) & Mon 2/27/2023 (IL/IN/OH)
Cheeseland May get his wish , get a good chase day toward his neck of woods … lol
talkweather.com
SmokeEater
Member
For some reason it doesn't show up unless I click on your link. Weird, thanks man.There is a thread for that day
Svr Wx Threat Sun 2/26/2023 (KS, OK, TX, MO) & Mon 2/27/2023 (IL/IN/OH)
Cheeseland May get his wish , get a good chase day toward his neck of woods … lol
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- Thread starter
- #360
KevinH
Member
It’s there, sometimes on this forum, for some reason, threads are not always at the top where you would expect them to be lol
This has happened to me before more than once lol
