Severe Weather 2023

[buckeye05]

Low-end EF2 tornado confirmed in the suburbs of Trenton, NJ yesterday. Strong tornadoes are already uncommon there, but one this early in the year seems pretty much unheard of.

 

[JPWX]

@buckeye05 I'm glad you brought that EF2 tornado up in New Jersey because looking back to 1783, it is only the 2nd tornado to occur in the month of February in New Jersey. The only other one was back on February 12th, 1999. It so happens that 1999 was part of the last 3 year La Nina. I'm always trying to find linkages from past years to current.

 

[warneagle]

Low-end EF2 tornado confirmed in the suburbs of Trenton, NJ yesterday. Strong tornadoes are already uncommon there, but one this early in the year seems pretty much unheard of.

From a really low-topped supercell with minimal CAPE too. Very weird.

 

[Clancy]

For those in Alabama looking to snag some preparedness items.

 

[KevinH]

Did not expect to see this in Alabama today

 

[TH2002]

This happened in La Mirada yesterday:

Weak tornado topples trees in La Mirada

A weak tornado briefly touched down in southeast Los Angeles County Thursday as a potent winter storm moved through Southern California. The twister touched down around 11:30 a.m., toppling several…

ktla.com

 

[JPWX]

From what I've found, today's tornado warning earlier in the Los Angeles area is the first one in February since 2019 and before that, it was in 2011.

 

[KevinH]

From what I've found, today's tornado warning earlier in the Los Angeles area is the first one in February since 2019 and before that, it was in 2011.

This is more in the San Luis Obispo area. Casmalia is about 4 hours NW of Los Angeles, and 1.5 hours NW of Santa Barbara lol

 

[gangstonc]

This is more in the San Luis Obispo area. Casmalia is about 4 hours NW of Los Angeles, and 1.5 hours NW of Santa Barbara lol

View attachment 18149

I was in some small hail in LA yesterday. People were standing in the streets taking pics of the rainbow.

 

[KevinH]

I was in some small hail in LA yesterday. People were standing in the streets taking pics of the rainbow.

LMAO!!

My people hahahahahahahahahahahahhahahaha

 

[KCweatherboy]

First time poster here! I haven't seen this discussed very much and it is out in model fantasyland as a disclaimer, but following the event on 3/3-3/4 it appears the models want to eject a strong longwave trough which obviously could spell trouble if positioned correctly. It was present on the 00z and 12z ECMWF, and on the 18z GFS which I find really interesting given they didn't even have agreement for the 3/3-3/4 event. Could maybe be something to watch going forward.

 

[KevinH]

First time poster here! I haven't seen this discussed very much and it is out in model fantasyland as a disclaimer, but following the event on 3/3-3/4 it appears the models want to eject a strong longwave trough which obviously could spell trouble if positioned correctly. It was present on the 00z and 12z ECMWF, and on the 18z GFS which I find really interesting given they didn't even have agreement for the 3/3-3/4 event. Could maybe be something to watch going forward.

There is a thread for this.

Severe WX - Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

I hesitate to post this early BEFORE the SPC highlights a risk area, but there seems to be increased model consensus AND increased chatter/concern about this time period. We all know models flip flop and hopefully this potential event will flop. If it does, at least we will have had a good...

talkweather.com

 

[Timhsv]

First time poster here! I haven't seen this discussed very much and it is out in model fantasyland as a disclaimer, but following the event on 3/3-3/4 it appears the models want to eject a strong longwave trough which obviously could spell trouble if positioned correctly. It was present on the 00z and 12z ECMWF, and on the 18z GFS which I find really interesting given they didn't even have agreement for the 3/3-3/4 event. Could maybe be something to watch going forward.

Saw that on the ECMWF...and welcome.

 

[KCweatherboy]

There is a thread for this.

Severe WX - Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

I hesitate to post this early BEFORE the SPC highlights a risk area, but there seems to be increased model consensus AND increased chatter/concern about this time period. We all know models flip flop and hopefully this potential event will flop. If it does, at least we will have had a good...

talkweather.com

No I was mentioning it for after the 3/3-3/4 event, this seems to be 3/6-3/7. Didn't wanna cause any confusion with that event since this is a different trough ejection and is still 10 or so days away, so it's likely to change. However, these are the types of longwaves that cause problems and I attached screenshots of the 500mb for 4/3/74, 11/10/02, and 4/27/11 for general comparisons.

I am cherrypicking model runs here but it is just interesting to observe imo. The 18z GFS doesn't have the moisture support for anything major, and the 00z ECMWF would be too early to tell, but the 12z ECMWF would be a bonafide outbreak with that ejection, a 982mb surface low, and 60s dew points up to the border of IL/KY and IN/KY.

Again, still in model fantasyland though and a lot can change in 10 days.

Edit: 4/27/11 screenshot isn't showing up for some reason

 

[KevinH]

No I was mentioning it for after the 3/3-3/4 event, this seems to be 3/6-3/7. Didn't wanna cause any confusion with that event since this is a different trough ejection and is still 10 or so days away, so it's likely to change. However, these are the types of longwaves that cause problems and I attached screenshots of the 500mb for 4/3/74, 11/10/02, and 4/27/11 for general comparisons.

I am cherrypicking model runs here but it is just interesting to observe imo. The 18z GFS doesn't have the moisture support for anything major, and the 00z ECMWF would be too early to tell, but the 12z ECMWF would be a bonafide outbreak with that ejection, a 982mb surface low, and 60s dew points up to the border of IL/KY and IN/KY.

Again, still in model fantasyland though and a lot can change in 10 days.

Edit: 4/27/11 screenshot isn't showing up for some reason

Gotcha….

 

[KevinH]

Posting this here in case people did not know and can go VOTE:

PLEASE READ - Vote on a new policy concerning severe weather threads

Good day everyone. In the past few weeks, we tested a new concept of allowing long-term threads for multiple events (i.e. last half of April). Several of you have spoken out against this with some very valid reasons around being able to go back and find information from an event quickly...

talkweather.com

 

[Gail]

I need the Weather Gods to give us a break on March 15th. It’s on a Wednesday. I cringed when I saw that. My husband has to be at UAB for a surgery, which means my hate-to-drive self has to drive him the three hours home. I need sunshine and dry roads.

 

[Clancy]

I need the Weather Gods to give us a break on March 15th. It’s on a Wednesday. I cringed when I saw that. My husband has to be at UAB for a surgery, which means my hate-to-drive self has to drive him the three hours home. I need sunshine and dry roads.

Wishing you clear and cloudless skies!

 

[KevinH]

I need the Weather Gods to give us a break on March 15th. It’s on a Wednesday. I cringed when I saw that. My husband has to be at UAB for a surgery, which means my hate-to-drive self has to drive him the three hours home. I need sunshine and dry roads.

Would you mind posting what pics/gifs you saw?

 

[JBishopwx]

Would you mind posting what pics/gifs you saw?

I think she means that the 15th is on a Wednesday, and Wednesday's are usually severe weather days.