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From a really low-topped supercell with minimal CAPE too. Very weird.Low-end EF2 tornado confirmed in the suburbs of Trenton, NJ yesterday. Strong tornadoes are already uncommon there, but one this early in the year seems pretty much unheard of.
I was in some small hail in LA yesterday. People were standing in the streets taking pics of the rainbow.This is more in the San Luis Obispo area. Casmalia is about 4 hours NW of Los Angeles, and 1.5 hours NW of Santa Barbara lol
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LMAO!!I was in some small hail in LA yesterday. People were standing in the streets taking pics of the rainbow.
There is a thread for this.First time poster here! I haven't seen this discussed very much and it is out in model fantasyland as a disclaimer, but following the event on 3/3-3/4 it appears the models want to eject a strong longwave trough which obviously could spell trouble if positioned correctly. It was present on the 00z and 12z ECMWF, and on the 18z GFS which I find really interesting given they didn't even have agreement for the 3/3-3/4 event. Could maybe be something to watch going forward.
Saw that on the ECMWF...and welcome.First time poster here! I haven't seen this discussed very much and it is out in model fantasyland as a disclaimer, but following the event on 3/3-3/4 it appears the models want to eject a strong longwave trough which obviously could spell trouble if positioned correctly. It was present on the 00z and 12z ECMWF, and on the 18z GFS which I find really interesting given they didn't even have agreement for the 3/3-3/4 event. Could maybe be something to watch going forward.
No I was mentioning it for after the 3/3-3/4 event, this seems to be 3/6-3/7. Didn't wanna cause any confusion with that event since this is a different trough ejection and is still 10 or so days away, so it's likely to change. However, these are the types of longwaves that cause problems and I attached screenshots of the 500mb for 4/3/74, 11/10/02, and 4/27/11 for general comparisons.There is a thread for this.
Severe WX - Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley
I hesitate to post this early BEFORE the SPC highlights a risk area, but there seems to be increased model consensus AND increased chatter/concern about this time period. We all know models flip flop and hopefully this potential event will flop. If it does, at least we will have had a good...talkweather.com
Gotcha….No I was mentioning it for after the 3/3-3/4 event, this seems to be 3/6-3/7. Didn't wanna cause any confusion with that event since this is a different trough ejection and is still 10 or so days away, so it's likely to change. However, these are the types of longwaves that cause problems and I attached screenshots of the 500mb for 4/3/74, 11/10/02, and 4/27/11 for general comparisons.
I am cherrypicking model runs here but it is just interesting to observe imo. The 18z GFS doesn't have the moisture support for anything major, and the 00z ECMWF would be too early to tell, but the 12z ECMWF would be a bonafide outbreak with that ejection, a 982mb surface low, and 60s dew points up to the border of IL/KY and IN/KY.
Again, still in model fantasyland though and a lot can change in 10 days.
Edit: 4/27/11 screenshot isn't showing up for some reason
Wishing you clear and cloudless skies!I need the Weather Gods to give us a break on March 15th. It’s on a Wednesday. I cringed when I saw that. My husband has to be at UAB for a surgery, which means my hate-to-drive self has to drive him the three hours home. I need sunshine and dry roads.
Would you mind posting what pics/gifs you saw?I need the Weather Gods to give us a break on March 15th. It’s on a Wednesday. I cringed when I saw that. My husband has to be at UAB for a surgery, which means my hate-to-drive self has to drive him the three hours home. I need sunshine and dry roads.
I think she means that the 15th is on a Wednesday, and Wednesday's are usually severe weather days.Would you mind posting what pics/gifs you saw?