Severe Weather 2023

[ColdFront]

Looks too amplified for a significant tornado event. Another wind threat, possibly.

Agreed. We may get a “lull” for a few weeks. Late March to Early May is always in play.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

A very uncertain weather setup the later half of next week is what I’ve seen modeled. The 12z/18z runs of the GFS are new to this idea of a possible severe threat over the weekend. There have been wild swings on the GFS/EURO. The UM and GEM hold better two day consistency with a northwest flow still over the eastern US next weekend.

 

[JPWX]

I mean basically.

 

[MattPetrulli]

A very uncertain weather setup the later half of next week is what I’ve seen modeled. The 12z/18z runs of the GFS are new to this idea of a possible severe threat over the weekend. There have been wild swings on the GFS/EURO. The UM and GEM hold better two day consistency with a northwest flow still over the eastern US next weekend.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The GEFS mean tonight. There are individual GFS ensemble members that convey serious business.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The GEM with a new look now.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The MJO report seems to signal for severe weather to return in the extended. The ensemble lines project movement into Phase 8 (Figure A). In addition, the forecast (unfilled contours) on the reconstruction chart (Figure B) shows similarities to the periods that led to the large/significant tornado episodes on Nov 4th last year and Jan 12th this year.

Figure A


Figure B


Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#discussion

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[Austin Dawg]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Hold the phone...12Z GFS just came in with a rather more potent look for next Saturday (3/11).

Verbatim looks like it could run into a similar issue that was (part) of the problem for yesterday's setup...namely the low is occluding by peak heating.

 

[JPWX]

SPC hinting at increased risk for strong to severe storm potential mid/late next week. Y'all know the drill by now as well as the areas that will be at risk. LOL!

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

SPC hinting at increased risk for strong to severe storm potential mid/late next week. Y'all know the drill by now as well as the areas that will be at risk. LOL!

I predict a bust!

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Fantasy range of course, but 06Z GFS would be another threat for Gulf Coastal regions on the 19th of March. Again, fantasy range, but the implication is annoying - that these threats still can't get north of about I-20 even as we approach the equinox. Remember, last year we had the Winterset, IA EF4 on March 5th.

 

[JPWX]

I would expect a Marginal to Slight Risk at the very least going into Wednesday thru Friday timeframe (8th to 10th) across portions of the Mid-South region. Nothing stands out for a significant outbreak, but then again, these things have tended to escalate closer in.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Fantasy range of course, but 06Z GFS would be another threat for Gulf Coastal regions on the 19th of March. Again, fantasy range, but the implication is annoying - that these threats still can't get north of about I-20 even as we approach the equinox. Remember, last year we had the Winterset, IA EF4 on March 5th.

You can thank the negative nao for that

 

[Weatherphreak]

I'm hoping the weekend of the 19th can stay rain free for the Atlanta area so I can go to the Nascar race.

 

[Austin Dawg]

Fantasy range of course, but 06Z GFS would be another threat for Gulf Coastal regions on the 19th of March. Again, fantasy range, but the implication is annoying - that these threats still can't get north of about I-20 even as we approach the equinox. Remember, last year we had the Winterset, IA EF4 on March 5th.

A lot of cold air in the forecast.

 

[Tennie]

The 6-10 and 8-14 Day Outlooks put out by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) aren't exactly encouraging for prospects of severe weather for at least the next couple weeks:

 

[David in SW Blount]

Took me a second to remember that severe weather season is just getting started. Feels like it's been happening for weeks!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Can we just not with more severe. @TheSuckZone suck the severe weather possiblity up on models and give us sunshine and mild temps