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Severe Weather 2023

A very uncertain weather setup the later half of next week is what I’ve seen modeled. The 12z/18z runs of the GFS are new to this idea of a possible severe threat over the weekend. There have been wild swings on the GFS/EURO. The UM and GEM hold better two day consistency with a northwest flow still over the eastern US next weekend.
 
I mean basically.
 

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Taylor Campbell said:
A very uncertain weather setup the later half of next week is what I’ve seen modeled. The 12z/18z runs of the GFS are new to this idea of a possible severe threat over the weekend. There have been wild swings on the GFS/EURO. The UM and GEM hold better two day consistency with a northwest flow still over the eastern US next weekend.
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500h_anom.conus.png
 
The MJO report seems to signal for severe weather to return in the extended. The ensemble lines project movement into Phase 8 (Figure A). In addition, the forecast (unfilled contours) on the reconstruction chart (Figure B) shows similarities to the periods that led to the large/significant tornado episodes on Nov 4th last year and Jan 12th this year.

Figure A
ensemblemeanforecast.PNG

Figure B
mjoconstructed.PNG

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#discussion
 
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SPC hinting at increased risk for strong to severe storm potential mid/late next week. Y'all know the drill by now as well as the areas that will be at risk. LOL!
 

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Fantasy range of course, but 06Z GFS would be another threat for Gulf Coastal regions on the 19th of March. Again, fantasy range, but the implication is annoying - that these threats still can't get north of about I-20 even as we approach the equinox. Remember, last year we had the Winterset, IA EF4 on March 5th.
 
I would expect a Marginal to Slight Risk at the very least going into Wednesday thru Friday timeframe (8th to 10th) across portions of the Mid-South region. Nothing stands out for a significant outbreak, but then again, these things have tended to escalate closer in.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Fantasy range of course, but 06Z GFS would be another threat for Gulf Coastal regions on the 19th of March. Again, fantasy range, but the implication is annoying - that these threats still can't get north of about I-20 even as we approach the equinox. Remember, last year we had the Winterset, IA EF4 on March 5th.
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You can thank the negative nao for that
 
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CheeselandSkies said:
Fantasy range of course, but 06Z GFS would be another threat for Gulf Coastal regions on the 19th of March. Again, fantasy range, but the implication is annoying - that these threats still can't get north of about I-20 even as we approach the equinox. Remember, last year we had the Winterset, IA EF4 on March 5th.
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A lot of cold air in the forecast.
 
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