Severe Weather 2023

[UncleJuJu98]

Eyes glued for this weekend! Nearing a sub 980 mb low over the Midwest states oof. January 23rd 2012 anyone lol?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Uncanny the position of the low lol. And intensity @ARCC does this remind you of the January 23rd 2012 event? Better climatology for higher cape too. Almost a spitting image just based off surface analysis. Worth giving a watch for this time period.

 

[UK_EF4]

Just for fun!
GFS 12z brings a properly crazy setup into Dixie alley on the 2nd March... safely away in Fantasy Land where we don't have to worry about it, but would be pretty mad (and probably not fun) if it actually happened haha.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Just for fun!
GFS 12z brings a properly crazy setup into Dixie alley on the 2nd March... safely away in Fantasy Land where we don't have to worry about it, but would be pretty mad (and probably not fun) if it actually happened haha.

The pattern sure is active moving forward. Were gunna mess around and get a high instability and high shear event if this holds on pattern wise

 

[Timhsv]

I know, I know. Its out there, but geezz, if this comes close to verifying. What an outbreak wouldn't you say? a 978. Next 2-3 weeks look really active.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I know, I know. Its out there, but geezz, if this comes close to verifying. What an outbreak wouldn't you say? a 978. Next 2-3 weeks look really active.

Lol there is ensemble support for a system to eject around that time frame.

These next two systems especially the day 7 time frame if a few factors line up could be a troublesome weather day.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Next Monday.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Next Monday.

View attachment 18012

Dangerous look for the deep south. With a zonal flow
It would be a safe bet to say instability is under forecasted especially considering the sorta primer low a day or two before it.

 

[KevinH]

Next Monday.

View attachment 18012

I am not sure how to read this lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I am not sure how to read this lol

It's global models forecast of surface pressure. Good consensus on a deep low over the midwest

 

[CheeselandSkies]

GFS shows negligible instability with the 2/27 system (rather like this week's, although the overall pattern makes more sense than this coming Wednesday) but 3/2 is another story...still way out there, though.

 

[Clancy]

Sure is toasty down here for February! At least it's not humid... yet.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

GFS shows negligible instability with the 2/27 system (rather like this week's, although the overall pattern makes more sense than this coming Wednesday) but 3/2 is another story...still way out there, though.

I have a really hard time believing how low the instability is for the 27th. Maybe it stays like that but a very similar event back on January 23rd 2012 played off around 800-1100 j of cape. Trends will be important but a high theta e pool is sitting over the deep south.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I have a really hard time believing how low the instability is for the 27th. Maybe it stays like that but a very similar event back on January 23rd 2012 played off around 800-1100 j of cape. Trends will be important but a high theta e pool is sitting over the deep south.

Not explicitly shown on any current runs, but I'm hoping one of these comes far enough north that I can get in an early-season regional chase before the -NAO/SSW kicks in and I don't get above 50 degrees until the 4th week of April. I stayed home for what turned out to be Winterset day last year because I didn't believe that low 60s temps/mid-50s dews could get it done. Whoops.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Not explicitly shown on any current runs, but I'm hoping one of these comes far enough north that I can get in an early-season regional chase before the -NAO/SSW kicks in and I don't get above 50 degrees until the 4th week of April. I stayed home for what turned out to be Winterset day last year because I didn't believe that low 60s temps/mid-50s dews could get it done. Whoops.

The fact that the past couple of weeks failed to produce at least one significant event, notwithstanding a generally favourable NHEM pattern and background, does not bode well for future tornado outbreaks. (Note: “significant” does not denote a historic event, but at least one outbreak with a couple of intense tornado families. A lone supercell doesn’t make the cut.) I’m still seeing a lot of excessive amplification, blocking, and subtropical interference, rather than the classical low-amplitude, progressive, polar-dominant setup. One would think we were in warm neutral or +ENSO rather than a third-year Niña with a well-established -PDO. We’ll likely need to wait until late March or later for our first possible High Risk of tornadoes.

 

[UK_EF4]

The fact that the past couple of weeks failed to produce at least one significant event, notwithstanding a generally favourable NHEM pattern and background, does not bode well for future tornado outbreaks. (Note: “significant” does not denote a historic event, but at least one outbreak with a couple of intense tornado families. A lone supercell doesn’t make the cut.) I’m still seeing a lot of excessive amplification, blocking, and subtropical interference, rather than the classical low-amplitude, progressive, polar-dominant setup. One would think we were in warm neutral or +ENSO rather than a third-year Niña with a well-established -PDO. We’ll likely need to wait until late March or later for our first possible High Risk of tornadoes.

Long term drivers for increased tornado outbreaks are something I have nearly no knowledge in, but given this year so far what you are saying and have been saying definitely seems to have some merit or at least some sort of relevance. We have seen 2 or 3 initially significant events downtrend into what eventually were typical weaker tornado events, and hopefully this trend continues especially into April/May - it would be nice for the South to get a break from a big outbreak this year though nowadays they seem inevitable. Keep us updated.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The 12z euro needs to take a chill pill almost getting near 960s on pressure I mean foreal lol. Euro has a 970. Lol that's gunna be some impressive gradient winds for the Midwest

 

[andyhb]

The fact that the past couple of weeks failed to produce at least one significant event, notwithstanding a generally favourable NHEM pattern and background, does not bode well for future tornado outbreaks. (Note: “significant” does not denote a historic event, but at least one outbreak with a couple of intense tornado families. A lone supercell doesn’t make the cut.) I’m still seeing a lot of excessive amplification, blocking, and subtropical interference, rather than the classical low-amplitude, progressive, polar-dominant setup. One would think we were in warm neutral or +ENSO rather than a third-year Niña with a well-established -PDO. We’ll likely need to wait until late March or later for our first possible High Risk of tornadoes.

Or this happens a lot and you're drawing way too much from this. Nah, that's never happened before...

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

The 12z euro needs to take a chill pill almost getting near 960s on pressure I mean foreal lol. Euro has a 970. Lol that's gunna be some impressive gradient winds for the Midwest View attachment 18014

Wowzers…!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yo, the 18z GFS is in la la land with this deep south surface low placement. But foreal that's a pretty good placement for severe weather in the deep south.