Severe Weather 2023

Taylor Campbell · Feb 14, 2023

Several more runs later and the models still show huge potential next week for a significant severe event.

KevinH · Feb 14, 2023

Taylor Campbell said:
Several more runs later and the models still show huge potential next week for a significant severe event.

In what areas? Any pics or GIFs?

JPWX · Feb 14, 2023

KevinH said:
In what areas? Any pics or GIFs?

You should know by now which areas.... The same ones in the risk tomorrow and Thursday. LOL!

KevinH · Feb 14, 2023

JPWX said:
You should know by now which areas.... The same ones in the risk tomorrow and Thursday. LOL!

Hey! Each week could be different! You know how fickle the weather is!!!!! Lol

CheeselandSkies · Feb 15, 2023

Taylor Campbell said:
Several more runs later and the models still show huge potential next week for a significant severe event.

SPC still noncommittal about next week in today's 4-8, but they do say that if a significant threat were to materialize, it would likely begin on Wednesday. Are we noticing a pattern here?

Sawmaster · Feb 15, 2023

CheeselandSkies said:
SPC still noncommittal about next week in today's 4-8, but they do say that if a significant threat were to materialize, it would likely begin on Wednesday. Are we noticing a pattern here?

It does seem to be almost all mid-week lately and the SPC has been quite noncommittal past a few days out too, but I can understand that beong so. At least it's interesting which is better than boredom

KevinH · Feb 15, 2023

CheeselandSkies said:
SPC still noncommittal about next week in today's 4-8, but they do say that if a significant threat were to materialize, it would likely begin on Wednesday. Are we noticing a pattern here?

If we were to go back a bit, I wonder if we can count how many significant tornadoes/outbreaks occurred on EACH DAY day of the week???

I did some digging (Wikipedia lol) and found that:
4/3/1974 (super outbreak)
5/12/2010 (outbreak)
6/16/2010 (outbreak)
10/6/2010 (outbreak)
10/27/2010 (outbreak)
4/20/2011 (outbreak sequence)
4/27/2011 (super outbreak)
5/25/2011 (outbreak sequence)
1/29/2013 (outbreak)
4/10/2013 (outbreak)
5/15/2013 (outbreak)
5/29/2013 (outbreak)
4/22/2020 (outbreak)
5/7/2020 (outbreak)
3/17/2021 (outbreak)
3/24/2021 (outbreak sequence)
7/28/2021 (outbreak)
9/1/2021 (Hurricane Ida outbreak)
12/15/2021 (outbreak, derecho)
3/30/2022 (outbreak)
4/6/2022 (outbreak)
4/13/2022 (“storm complex”)
11/30/2022 (outbreak)
12/14/2022 (outbreak)

All occurred on Wednesday. I AM NOT SAYING NEXT WEEK WILL BE LIKE THESE so don’t @ me lol! I am just using these as an example.

It should be noted that isolated EF3+ tornadoes (not part of an outbreak/sequence) are NOT part of the list above. The list above is NOT exhaustive and does NOT include every SIG TOR that ever occurred on Wednesday. Also, since outbreaks/sequences occur over several days, they are more likely to include Wednesday, so there is some sort of bias there, just like the models in some of their runs BUWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Does anyone else have other dates to add, or want to finish going down this rabbit hole? I am sure there is SOME database (other than Wikipedia lol) that has all of this data lol

CheeselandSkies · Feb 15, 2023

KevinH said:
If we were to go back a bit, I wonder if we can count how many significant tornadoes/outbreaks occurred on EACH DAY day of the week???

I did some digging (Wikipedia lol) and found that:
4/3/1974 (super outbreak)
5/12/2010 (outbreak)
6/16/2010 (outbreak)
10/6/2010 (outbreak)
10/27/2010 (outbreak)
4/20/2011 (outbreak sequence)
4/27/2011 (super outbreak)
5/25/2011 (outbreak sequence)
1/29/2013 (outbreak)
4/10/2013 (outbreak)
5/15/2013 (outbreak)
5/29/2013 (outbreak)
4/22/2020 (outbreak)
5/7/2020 (outbreak)
3/17/2021 (outbreak)
3/24/2021 (outbreak sequence)
7/28/2021 (outbreak)
9/1/2021 (Hurricane Ida outbreak)
12/15/2021 (outbreak, derecho)
3/30/2022 (outbreak)
4/6/2022 (outbreak)
4/13/2022 (“storm complex”)
11/30/2022 (outbreak)
12/14/2022 (outbreak)

All occurred on Wednesday. I AM NOT SAYING NEXT WEEK WILL BE LIKE THESE so don’t @ me lol! I am just using these as an example.

It should be noted that isolated EF3+ tornadoes (not part of an outbreak/sequence) are NOT part of the list above. The list above is NOT exhaustive and does NOT include every SIG TOR that ever occurred on Wednesday. Also, since outbreaks/sequences occur over several days, they are more likely to include Wednesday, so there is some sort of bias there, just like the models in some of their runs BUWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Does anyone else have other dates to add, or want to finish going down this rabbit hole? I am sure there is SOME database (other than Wikipedia lol) that has all of this data lol

I think the notion of a "Wednesday curse" at least for Dixie Alley generally comes from both Super Outbreaks along with some of the other events you listed all occurring on that day. Of course, plenty of significant outbreaks/parts of outbreak sequences have occurred on other days of the week.

xJownage · Feb 15, 2023

KevinH said:
If we were to go back a bit, I wonder if we can count how many significant tornadoes/outbreaks occurred on EACH DAY day of the week???

I did some digging (Wikipedia lol) and found that:
4/3/1974 (super outbreak)
5/12/2010 (outbreak)
6/16/2010 (outbreak)
10/6/2010 (outbreak)
10/27/2010 (outbreak)
4/20/2011 (outbreak sequence)
4/27/2011 (super outbreak)
5/25/2011 (outbreak sequence)
1/29/2013 (outbreak)
4/10/2013 (outbreak)
5/15/2013 (outbreak)
5/29/2013 (outbreak)
4/22/2020 (outbreak)
5/7/2020 (outbreak)
3/17/2021 (outbreak)
3/24/2021 (outbreak sequence)
7/28/2021 (outbreak)
9/1/2021 (Hurricane Ida outbreak)
12/15/2021 (outbreak, derecho)
3/30/2022 (outbreak)
4/6/2022 (outbreak)
4/13/2022 (“storm complex”)
11/30/2022 (outbreak)
12/14/2022 (outbreak)

All occurred on Wednesday. I AM NOT SAYING NEXT WEEK WILL BE LIKE THESE so don’t @ me lol! I am just using these as an example.

It should be noted that isolated EF3+ tornadoes (not part of an outbreak/sequence) are NOT part of the list above. The list above is NOT exhaustive and does NOT include every SIG TOR that ever occurred on Wednesday. Also, since outbreaks/sequences occur over several days, they are more likely to include Wednesday, so there is some sort of bias there, just like the models in some of their runs BUWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Does anyone else have other dates to add, or want to finish going down this rabbit hole? I am sure there is SOME database (other than Wikipedia lol) that has all of this data lol

This will forever be known as the Wednesday Curse. No other weather rules matter. Wednesday curse rules all.

MichelleH · Feb 15, 2023

Also April 8, 1998. Eventually, I plan to write a book about the Wednesday phenomena. Have to finish the current one I'm working on first, if I can ever find time.

JPWX · Feb 15, 2023

I'm going back through after I get finished with the Atlantic tropical powerpoints and putting all the PDS weather watches in a spreadsheet. Gonna see what day's had the most PDS watches occur as well as how much of the United States has been covered by PDS watches. I may go back after I finish with that and do the same thing for the regular watches.

Taylor Campbell · Feb 16, 2023

Mid next week continues to have huge potential of a significant severe weather event. Perhaps in the form of extreme damaging winds and a slew of embedded significant tornadoes.

CheeselandSkies · Feb 16, 2023

SPC not really seeing anything of note (at least worthy and/or consistent enough to warrant highlighting a Day 4-8 area) for next week, but today's discussion does hint that they are seeing a signal just beyond the Day 8 period, which would be around the weekend after this coming one.

Obviously model voodoo land still, but the next thing to monitor.

KevinH · Feb 16, 2023

Penitentes · Feb 16, 2023

I've seen a decent amount of online chatter about the model runs for 2/22 today. If it ends up looking healthy for severe weather it may deserve a thread separate from the one we've been using for today and yesterday's event (which has a generic name, though).

KevinH · Feb 16, 2023

Penitentes said:
I've seen a decent amount of online chatter about the model runs for 2/22 today. If it ends up looking healthy for severe weather it may deserve a thread separate from the one we've been using for today and yesterday's event (which has a generic name, though).

Where is this said chatter? Lol

And yeah the name of the thread for todays threat has been discussed in that thread before. Feel free to make a thread for 2/22 if/when you see fit.

Equus · Feb 16, 2023

GFS has been quite interested in 2/22 for a bit

Euro is a bit slower but certainly suggests GFS isn't entirely out to lunch

KevinH · Feb 16, 2023

Ryan Hall just said there are going to be a bunch of tornadoes and outbreaks March-May.

We shall see…..

CheeselandSkies · Feb 16, 2023

KevinH said:
Ryan Hall just said there are going to be a bunch of tornadoes and outbreaks March-May.

We shall see…..

Ongoing PV disruption would argue against that if it results in cold air being constantly dumped into the CONUS east of the Rockies from now through most of April as has happened several times in the recent past.

However, while much of weather forecasting relies on pattern recognition, similar setups don't always produce the same results as we well know.

tennessee storm chaser · Feb 16, 2023

CheeselandSkies said:
Ongoing PV disruption would argue against that if it results in cold air being constantly dumped into the CONUS east of the Rockies from now through most of April as has happened several times in the recent past.

However, while much of weather forecasting relies on pattern recognition, similar setups don't always produce the same results as we well know.

Thus far cold air looks be west of Rockies for most part according weeklies …. West looks troughy

Severe Weather 2023

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