The CFSv2 Supercell Composite Parameter for Week 2 and 3. February 16th through March 1st.
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Severe Weather 2023
- Thread starter KevinH
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- #222
KevinH
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Not really surprised SMH
So, I just came across this recent comment over on the AmericanWX forum, which shows a fairly strong forecast signal for a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event in mid-February this year, which could lead to a colder spring and thus a dampened chance for severe weather over that time period. We'll just have to wait and see how things actually end up playing out, though. I figured it was something at least worth sharing here.
By no means am I a SSW expert, but we had snow down here in Smithville, MS on March 11th through 12th last year. March 2022 ended being fairly active for tornadoes in MS with 73 tornadoes. March 2022 had 5 Enhanced Risks and 3 Moderate Risks overall. April 2022 had 6 Enhanced Risks and 3 Moderate Risks overall. In fact, 3 of the Top 10 tornado days in 2022 were in March. So while it might hinder severe weather potential for a time, it definitely won't shut down the entire season. We did have a SSW event in late March 2011.
tennessee storm chaser
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Also a ssw event can go other way as spike the nao. So even more positive …. Ssw events never guarantee colder weather for our area
CheeselandSkies
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Yeah...Dixie always seems to get its winter/early spring severe weather regardless.
It's the Plains/Midwest chase season that often gets shut down by late winter SSWEs...
Obviously no two setups are exactly the same but what seems to happen at least in years like 2014 and 2018 is the cold air stays entrenched over the Great Lakes well into May. Then even in the case that a trough does try to dig into the West, any lee cyclones that spin up can't progress east and lift the warm sector up into the region. Instead they just kind pinch off/"shear out" and the cold air crashes back in.
It's the Plains/Midwest chase season that often gets shut down by late winter SSWEs...
Obviously no two setups are exactly the same but what seems to happen at least in years like 2014 and 2018 is the cold air stays entrenched over the Great Lakes well into May. Then even in the case that a trough does try to dig into the West, any lee cyclones that spin up can't progress east and lift the warm sector up into the region. Instead they just kind pinch off/"shear out" and the cold air crashes back in.
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- Thread starter
- #227
KevinH
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Take with a grain of salt (for now)
The long range model guidance is lining up very well with the MJO for an extended stretch of severe weather threats.
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- #229
KevinH
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For Dixie right?
tennessee storm chaser
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Dixie midsouth area
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- #231
KevinH
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Of course *sigh*
CheeselandSkies
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I'd say "Can we get that 500mb map in May?" but I know it won't happen. We'll be lucky to exceed 30kts east of the Rockies and south of the Canadian border all month.
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- #233
KevinH
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CheeselandSkies
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Correct-a-mundo.
Just putting this here for future reference in case anyone is wondering. The highest total for February tornadoes is 2008 with 146. As far as ENSO, we were in a weakening La Nina that transitioned to Neutral by June.
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- #237
KevinH
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I guess it is! lol
I even ask (on Twitter) if he was on here now realizing who he was hahahahahahahahahahaha
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- #238
Next week looks like it has huge potential. Let’s watch this period closely.
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- #239
KevinH
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Yeah.. I am not surprised SMH
@Lake Martin EF4 made a thread that ALL events for the rest of the month:
Severe WX - Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023
Megathread for the entire Mid-Late Feb period as this appears to be an extremely active period. Will we see 2023's first EF4+ from this? Who knows!
talkweather.com
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- #240
Yeah.. I am not surprised SMH
@Lake Martin EF4 made a thread that ALL events for the rest of the month:
Severe WX - Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023
Megathread for the entire Mid-Late Feb period as this appears to be an extremely active period. Will we see 2023's first EF4+ from this? Who knows!
Thank you, but I’m going to keep talk for next week’s potential in this thread. I hope the moderators or Lake Martin EF4 will retitle that thread to dedicate to Wed/Thursday’s threat.