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Severe Weather 2023

JBishopwx

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SPC mentioning a threat next week across the south.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CST Thu Feb 02 2023

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential should remain low across the CONUS from Day
4/Sunday into Day 5/Monday as an upper trough moves eastward across
the western CONUS and Southwest. From Day 6/Tuesday onward, the
latest GFS, ECMWF, and their respective ensembles show rapidly
diverging solutions regarding the evolution of this upper trough
across the central/eastern CONUS. The GFS and GEFS ensemble mean
suggest that the upper trough will evolve into a closed upper low
and eject northeastward across the Plains from Day 7/Wednesday into
Day 8/Thursday. Some severe threat could materialize across parts of
the southern Plains on Wednesday if this slower progression occurs.

The ECMWF and EPS ensemble mean show a much faster ejection of the
upper trough across the Plains on Tuesday, and the rest of the
eastern CONUS Wednesday and Thursday. It remains unclear whether
sufficient low-level moisture will be able to return northward ahead
of this feature to support an organized severe threat if this faster
solution verifies. Regardless, some potential for severe
thunderstorms may exist across parts of the southern Plains
beginning as soon as Tuesday, and for portions of the lower MS
Valley and Southeast Wednesday into Thursday. There is far too much
uncertainty in the timing and evolution of the upper trough and
related surface features to include any 15% severe areas at this
extended time frame. But, trends will be monitored.
 

UncleJuJu98

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Seems like the ceiling for this event would a be a semi squall low top supercell event lol. If it can even reach around a 1000j. Still a long ways to go though
 

UncleJuJu98

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Almost ready to pull the trigger on a thread.... Waiting till 18z consensus.

12z gfs and 00z euro are two pees in a pod on the evolution . Waiting for 12z euro and 18z gfs. May be a broad low-moderate instability warm sector with a relatively favorable upper air pattern for a few tornadoes/ squall line.
 

UncleJuJu98

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I'm a bit hesitant though.. this one COULD suffer a gulf hugging warm front lol. Timing seems to be favorable for daytime/ evening activity but that's always up for change
Almost ready to pull the trigger on a thread.... Waiting till 18z consensus.

12z gfs and 00z euro are two pees in a pod on the evolution . Waiting for 12z euro and 18z gfs. May be a broad low-moderate instability warm sector with a relatively favorable upper air pattern for a few tornadoes/ squall
 
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CWASPgfs212F156.png
CWASPgfs212F174.png

1675360648441.png

Potential is there, but just like all systems this time of year the question will be how far North.
 

KevinH

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Almost ready to pull the trigger on a thread.... Waiting till 18z consensus.

12z gfs and 00z euro are two pees in a pod on the evolution . Waiting for 12z euro and 18z gfs. May be a broad low-moderate instability warm sector with a relatively favorable upper air pattern for a few tornadoes/ squall line.
I would wait another day or two lol
 

UncleJuJu98

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I only say to wait bc you know how FICKLE Dixie is, especially this far out. Dixie does NOT play by the rules and always wants us playing Whack a Mole lol
Not sure we will be able to avoid some severe weather in the deep south . Question is what's the severity of the squall line or semi broken squall line. Lack of instability is a big player. But if anything a squall line with a couple spin ups and borderline damaging winds seems plausible.
 

KevinH

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Not sure we will be able to avoid some severe weather in the deep south . Question is what's the severity of the squall line or semi broken squall line. Lack of instability is a big player. But if anything a squall line with a couple spin ups and borderline damaging winds seems plausible.
Ok I could see that.

SO FAR, everything has been to my west. I like to think that FL prevents the GOM moisture from reaching most of GA lol
 

UncleJuJu98

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I think my new baseline for low-to moderate instability events is the long track tornado event this previous January. The veterans day event. And April 15 2011.. I think those are decent analogs to compare any low instability tornadic threat in the south.

I often like to check these spring late spring events with different dynamics and not compare to lower threshold but prolific events for that parameter setup
 

Taylor Campbell

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The EURO is currently the outlier. The Canadian, ICON, and GFS/GEFS have a more cut off/slower type solution for a potential Texas threat next Wednesday.
 

JPWX

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Based on recent patterns there's usually 1 slight/enhanced risk day every February in the South and a mod risk once every 3 years.
You gave me an idea. So I did a little research. From 1990 through 2022, there has been 95 Slight Risks issued in February. Since 2000, 25 Moderate Risks in February. Since 2016, 13 Enhanced Risks in February. Since 1990, only 3 High Risks in February. Last February High Risk occurred in 2008.
 

UncleJuJu98

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You gave me an idea. So I did a little research. From 1990 through 2022, there has been 95 Slight Risks issued in February. Since 2000, 25 Moderate Risks in February. Since 2016, 13 Enhanced Risks in February. Since 1990, only 3 High Risks in February. Last February High Risk occurred in 2008.
Super Tuesday...? For the high risk 2008? Or was that 2007
 

UncleJuJu98

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The 18z gfs is looking pretty good for a low moderate instability event. I think I'll make a thread in just a second. Let me gather some pics and stuff
 
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