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Severe Weather 2023

1_24_23_Dewpoint_Analysis.png

The 00z Canadian, Euro, and GFS all showed similar dewpoints but timing is off. Canadian and GFS have a faster progression and lands on Tues. Euro is slower and lands on Wednesday.

Seeing all 3 line up line this definitely increases the likelihood of seeing some severe weather in the South on Tuesday or Wednesday. Northern extent of moisture advection should be ignored right now and will get worked out later. 12z GFS flip flopped but we all know how common that behavior is. We should look for more consistency out of GFS over the next 2 days.

Right now I'm going to lean towards the Euro's timing.
 
sfctd-imp.conus.png


GFS has finally stopped flip flopping. The last 4 runs have been in agreement with Euro and Canadian on moisture.

Its safe to say that there will be at least a slight risk of severe weather on Wednesday, Feb 1.
 
Last edited:
ashtonlemleywx said:
sfctd-imp.conus.png


GFS has finally stopped flip flopping. The last 4 runs have been in agreement with Euro and Canadian on moisture.

Its safe to say that there will be at least a slight risk of severe weather on Wednesday, Feb 1.
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Severe Weather Threat February 1, 2023

GFS has finally stopped flip flopping. The last 4 runs have been in agreement with Euro and Canadian on moisture. Its safe to say that there will be at least a slight risk of severe weather on Wednesday, Feb 1.
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KevinH said:
Haven’t seen/heard anything SVR related after this nice event. There has to be SOMETHING lol
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There is and here it is...... LOL!
precip_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png
 
KevinH said:
Hutsideaven’t seen/heard anything SVR related after this nice event. There has to be SOMETHING lol
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Outside of a few heavy rain reports, nothing from Sunday's event.
 
KevinH said:
Oh wow…. That is kind of a large slight area. I’ll be watching the convective outlooks lol
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That's the heavy rain outlook. As I mentioned before, CPC doesn't really say anything about severe weather anymore unless either the SPC highlights an area or the week-2 signal is really, really strong on the ensembles.
 
GFS has the next system to watch for parts of the South around 10 days from now. Right now it suggests that the rich moist sector that gets pulled inland could be fairly narrow, as the Gulf may still be recharging from this Arctic surge. However I have noticed that the GFS in particular seems to be prone to a cold bias in the longer range. Not to mention the actual orientation/amplification/timing of the trough and associated surface response, so a lot of details yet to be ironed out.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
GFS has the next system to watch for parts of the South around 10 days from now. Right now it suggests that the rich moist sector that gets pulled inland could be fairly narrow, as the Gulf may still be recharging from this Arctic surge. However I have noticed that the GFS in particular seems to be prone to a cold bias in the longer range. Not to mention the actual orientation/amplification/timing of the trough and associated surface response, so a lot of details yet to be ironed out.
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5 days and the 10 days is watchable. Playing with the idea of potentially starting a thread.... Because it looks like a similar pattern of bowling balls for mid February....

I think I'll hole out though.
Like you said. not concrete on model consistency on some of the troughs.
 
Recently saw this on Twitter and it kind of made me laugh, but at the same time made me quiet (given the recent comments people have made in this thread about this time frame. The date of this tweet is worth mentioning.

 
KevinH said:
Recently saw this on Twitter and it kind of made me laugh, but at the same time made me quiet (given the recent comments people have made in this thread about this time frame. The date of this tweet is worth mentioning.

Click to expand...

Seems like hyperbole. Pattern favors some bowling balls through. Hopefully this pattern isn't persistent.
 
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