Severe Weather 2023

[Lake Martin EF4]

Why don't we let @Richardjacks start one? He did great last time.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

There is a good bit of GFS ensemble members that show a severe threat.

 

[KevinH]

There is a good bit of GFS ensemble members that show a severe threat.

For the areas already highlighted right?

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

The 00z Canadian, Euro, and GFS all showed similar dewpoints but timing is off. Canadian and GFS have a faster progression and lands on Tues. Euro is slower and lands on Wednesday.

Seeing all 3 line up line this definitely increases the likelihood of seeing some severe weather in the South on Tuesday or Wednesday. Northern extent of moisture advection should be ignored right now and will get worked out later. 12z GFS flip flopped but we all know how common that behavior is. We should look for more consistency out of GFS over the next 2 days.

Right now I'm going to lean towards the Euro's timing.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

GFS has finally stopped flip flopping. The last 4 runs have been in agreement with Euro and Canadian on moisture.

Its safe to say that there will be at least a slight risk of severe weather on Wednesday, Feb 1.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Yeah, the GFS and EURO show a severe threat. The Canadian not as much.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

GFS has finally stopped flip flopping. The last 4 runs have been in agreement with Euro and Canadian on moisture.

Its safe to say that there will be at least a slight risk of severe weather on Wednesday, Feb 1.

Severe Weather Threat February 1, 2023

GFS has finally stopped flip flopping. The last 4 runs have been in agreement with Euro and Canadian on moisture. Its safe to say that there will be at least a slight risk of severe weather on Wednesday, Feb 1.

talkweather.com

 

[JBishopwx]

Isolated severe threat on the Gulf Coast toady, along with flooding potential:

 

[KevinH]

Haven’t seen/heard anything SVR related after this nice event. There has to be SOMETHING lol

 

[JPWX]

Haven’t seen/heard anything SVR related after this nice event. There has to be SOMETHING lol

There is and here it is...... LOL!

 

[JBishopwx]

Hutsideaven’t seen/heard anything SVR related after this nice event. There has to be SOMETHING lol

Outside of a few heavy rain reports, nothing from Sunday's event.

 

[KevinH]

There is and here it is...... LOL!
View attachment 17364

Oh wow…. That is kind of a large slight area. I’ll be watching the convective outlooks lol

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Oh wow…. That is kind of a large slight area. I’ll be watching the convective outlooks lol

That's the heavy rain outlook. As I mentioned before, CPC doesn't really say anything about severe weather anymore unless either the SPC highlights an area or the week-2 signal is really, really strong on the ensembles.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

GFS has the next system to watch for parts of the South around 10 days from now. Right now it suggests that the rich moist sector that gets pulled inland could be fairly narrow, as the Gulf may still be recharging from this Arctic surge. However I have noticed that the GFS in particular seems to be prone to a cold bias in the longer range. Not to mention the actual orientation/amplification/timing of the trough and associated surface response, so a lot of details yet to be ironed out.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

GFS has the next system to watch for parts of the South around 10 days from now. Right now it suggests that the rich moist sector that gets pulled inland could be fairly narrow, as the Gulf may still be recharging from this Arctic surge. However I have noticed that the GFS in particular seems to be prone to a cold bias in the longer range. Not to mention the actual orientation/amplification/timing of the trough and associated surface response, so a lot of details yet to be ironed out.

5 days and the 10 days is watchable. Playing with the idea of potentially starting a thread.... Because it looks like a similar pattern of bowling balls for mid February....

I think I'll hole out though.
Like you said. not concrete on model consistency on some of the troughs.

 

[KevinH]

Recently saw this on Twitter and it kind of made me laugh, but at the same time made me quiet (given the recent comments people have made in this thread about this time frame. The date of this tweet is worth mentioning.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Recently saw this on Twitter and it kind of made me laugh, but at the same time made me quiet (given the recent comments people have made in this thread about this time frame. The date of this tweet is worth mentioning.

Seems like hyperbole. Pattern favors some bowling balls through. Hopefully this pattern isn't persistent.

 

[KevinH]

Seems like hyperbole. Pattern favors some bowling balls through. Hopefully this pattern isn't persistent.

Someone trying to replace Victor Gensini down under lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Euro poops on the instability for the day 7 time frame threat lol. Overall values less that 500 almost across the board. Lol

 

[KevinH]

Euro poops on the instability for the day 7 time frame threat lol. Overall values less that 500 almost across the board. Lol View attachment 17479View attachment 17480

For now… we ALL know how Dixie can be lol