Severe Weather 2023

[UncleJuJu98]

Those maps are for Tuesday the 24th, the maps in the original tweet are for Wednesday the 25th.

Oh okay, yeah the timeframe will wobble some but the consistency on the ejection and evolution of the atmosphere is what's the most important at this stage. Timing always changes up until a day out almost. But the evolution will usually stay consistent.

 

[KevinH]

a outlook may be issued tommorow on the day 7-8 range if the 18z and 00z GFS euro hold up. If it where me I'd wait until the spc gives the go ahead before making a thread.

Oh I would wait anyway.

I say wait until the SPC highlights a day OR until ALL of the models agree at any given time, which is probably when the SPC would highlight a day anyway hahahaa

Show me the lemons (15%) and oranges (30%)!!!!!!

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Oh I would wait anyway.

I say wait until the SPC highlights a day OR until ALL of the models agree at any given time, which is probably when the SPC would highlight a day anyway hahahaa

Show me the lemons (15%) and oranges (30%)!!!!!!

Want to see some purple grape eventually . Been a while

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Exactly, still you'll need some robust instability or things will get shredded if we can hit that 2000+ instability. Uh oh.

 

[KevinH]

Exactly, still you'll need some robust instability or things will get shredded if we can hit that 2000+ instability. Uh oh.

Imagine that SMH

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Imagine that SMH

Low level jet will feed the instability into the deep south, the ridiculous speed shear and potential instabiliy is what makes this threat pretty good. Basically the higher speed shear (in the lower levels) the higher potential for stronger tornadoes BUT! Big butt you need other ingredients but just the basis of the low level jet and how incredible it is It's a pretty nasty.

 

[KevinH]

Low level jet will feed the instability into the deep south, the ridiculous speed shear and potential instabiliy is what makes this threat pretty good. Basically the higher speed shear (in the lower levels) the higher potential for stronger tornadoes BUT! Big butt you need other ingredients but just the basis of the low level jet and how incredible it is It's a pretty nasty.

All the more reason to watch

 

[UncleJuJu98]

All the more reason to watch

Lol it's not all doom and gloom a lot of things have to come together for a robust event so just hope it doesn't!

 

[JPWX]

I'll be glad when these local offices quit harping about lack of instability with each of these severe weather threats.

 

[Clancy]

I'll be glad when these local offices quit harping about lack of instability with each of these severe weather threats.

Would make sense if you operated out of a WFO where high CAPE setups are the norm, but rather confusing coming from southern offices during the middle of winter.

 

[KevinH]

Lol it's not all doom and gloom a lot of things have to come together for a robust event so just hope it doesn't!

Right… all the more reason to WATCH, not panic lol

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

I smell a new thread lol

Severe Weather Threat January 23-25, 2023

Just in case.... The 12z Euro and 12z Canadian are just plain nasty looking at the 500mb level between the 23rd and 25th. Euro actually has two back to back severe weather threats. First one around the 23rd and then the next one around the 25th. Exactly, still you'll need some robust...

talkweather.com

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

First couple weeks of February could spell some serious trouble if trends I’m seeing hold on teleconnections…. Pdo going extremely negative ,TNI spiking upwards . Headed toward more negative pna plus’s positive nao ao during this timeframe … first two weeks needs be watched for a high ceiling severe event in Dixie …midsouth regiona….

 

[UK_EF4]

I have to admit I had been confused by the model output with big powerful troughs that were quite diffluent, and then weak, really far south tracking surface lows. GFS 12z now has a more 'proper' looking surface low, crazy kinematics, and then 60F dew point into C MS/AL. So just one run, but I think we should continue to watch this threat for the 24th.

 

[Austin Dawg]

First couple weeks of February could spell some serious trouble if trends I’m seeing hold on teleconnections…. Pdo going extremely negative ,TNI spiking upwards . Headed toward more negative pna plus’s positive nao ao during this timeframe … first two weeks needs be watched for a high ceiling severe event in Dixie …midsouth regiona….

I am not very savvy when it comes to running the models (I need a tutorial) but what I saw in February looks to be very busy. It does not appear that the storm systems are going to stop anytime soon

 

[Brice]

I am not very savvy when it comes to running the models (I need a tutorial) but what I saw in February looks to be very busy. It does not appear that the storm systems are going to stop anytime soon

Reminds me of the sequence we had in the 2nd of way in May of 2019, different locations and different month.

 

[JBishopwx]

Marginal risk along the Gulf coast today.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Who's ready to freeze their tush off?

First Week of February 2023 Winter Event - So, You Wanna Build a Snowman?

Checking the GFS....Oh my. Actual temperature (as in, non wind chill): Wind chill: Snowfall totals: This is gonna be a fun one.

talkweather.com

 

[Taylor Campbell]

We have a period to watch for a potential severe weather event at the end of this month.

 

[KevinH]

We have a period to watch for a potential severe weather event at the end of this month.

You mean, as in a week after this coming Tuesday’s potential event?

What are you seeing? Where?