Severe Weather 2023

UncleJuJu98

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Those maps are for Tuesday the 24th, the maps in the original tweet are for Wednesday the 25th.
Oh okay, yeah the timeframe will wobble some but the consistency on the ejection and evolution of the atmosphere is what's the most important at this stage. Timing always changes up until a day out almost. But the evolution will usually stay consistent.
 

KevinH

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a outlook may be issued tommorow on the day 7-8 range if the 18z and 00z GFS euro hold up. If it where me I'd wait until the spc gives the go ahead before making a thread.
Oh I would wait anyway.

I say wait until the SPC highlights a day OR until ALL of the models agree at any given time, which is probably when the SPC would highlight a day anyway hahahaa

Show me the lemons (15%) and oranges (30%)!!!!!!
 
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Oh I would wait anyway.

I say wait until the SPC highlights a day OR until ALL of the models agree at any given time, which is probably when the SPC would highlight a day anyway hahahaa

Show me the lemons (15%) and oranges (30%)!!!!!!
Want to see some purple grape eventually . Been a while
 

UncleJuJu98

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Imagine that SMH
Low level jet will feed the instability into the deep south, the ridiculous speed shear and potential instabiliy is what makes this threat pretty good. Basically the higher speed shear (in the lower levels) the higher potential for stronger tornadoes BUT! Big butt you need other ingredients but just the basis of the low level jet and how incredible it is It's a pretty nasty.
 

KevinH

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Low level jet will feed the instability into the deep south, the ridiculous speed shear and potential instabiliy is what makes this threat pretty good. Basically the higher speed shear (in the lower levels) the higher potential for stronger tornadoes BUT! Big butt you need other ingredients but just the basis of the low level jet and how incredible it is It's a pretty nasty.
All the more reason to watch
 
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I smell a new thread lol
 
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First couple weeks of February could spell some serious trouble if trends I’m seeing hold on teleconnections…. Pdo going extremely negative ,TNI spiking upwards . Headed toward more negative pna plus’s positive nao ao during this timeframe … first two weeks needs be watched for a high ceiling severe event in Dixie …midsouth regiona….
 

UK_EF4

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I have to admit I had been confused by the model output with big powerful troughs that were quite diffluent, and then weak, really far south tracking surface lows. GFS 12z now has a more 'proper' looking surface low, crazy kinematics, and then 60F dew point into C MS/AL. So just one run, but I think we should continue to watch this threat for the 24th.
 

Austin Dawg

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First couple weeks of February could spell some serious trouble if trends I’m seeing hold on teleconnections…. Pdo going extremely negative ,TNI spiking upwards . Headed toward more negative pna plus’s positive nao ao during this timeframe … first two weeks needs be watched for a high ceiling severe event in Dixie …midsouth regiona….
I am not very savvy when it comes to running the models (I need a tutorial) but what I saw in February looks to be very busy. It does not appear that the storm systems are going to stop anytime soon
 
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