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Severe Weather 2023

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January 1999 was the most active winter month on record with 216 tornadoes. This record was surpassed by December 2021 with 227 tornadoes.
January 17 th 1999 we were hit with a ef4 right here jackson that night . It was only bout 25 mile per hour away from
Being ef5. 26 fatalities that evening
 

Sawmaster

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Interesting to hear about the "Plainfield syndrome," being from the upper Midwest it's one of the most talked-about tornadoes in weather geek circles around here. I always was under the impression that part of the problem was that with lacking WSR-88D at the time it was hard to be confident about any tornado signature with the very HP supercell, and also poor communication between the NWS Chicago office and the one in Rockford (which existed at the time) as the tornado tracked roughly along the boundary between their jurisdictions.

There are no known photos/video of the Plainfield tornado in progress (there is video of some funnel clouds that preceded it earlier in the supercell's life, when it was somewhat less HP). I'd posit that two very close visual and radar analogs for how it would have appeared are Joplin and the May 2019 Lawrence-Linwood, KS EF4.
Rather than clog this thread with replies folks should read the Wikipedia article- there's a whole lot more to this which is explained there. Back to 2023 ;)
 

UncleJuJu98

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Look at the day 7-8 timeframe period that I thought could be a major event for the southeast really remarkable values on a global which I've always thought whenever you see very high values on globals you have potential for a major event. Supercell composite is high, but I tend to look at ehi more in terms of atmosphere capability. One issue I see is if we don't get around that threshold of 2000j+ of instability these storms will probably end up being shredded with how much speed shear there is. Unfortunately... I don't see it being a issue at this point. I'm telling you this could be the big one. Been playing around with all these barreling lows until one rolls it's dice right and you got a big time event on your hands. Still lots of time to change. But the GFS Operational has been incredibly consistent. Which is another belief of mine these major events typically forecast and hold together further out in forecast than your mid major events.

Synoptically though in conclusion.. this one has some potential. If models ain't crapping on everybody lol
Last 6 GFS Operational runs
View attachment 16921View attachment 16922View attachment 16923
View attachment 16924View attachment 16925
[/QUOTE]
 

UK_EF4

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Obviously way too earlier for specifics... but 12z GFS continues the severe threat, with what I must admit is quite a concerning look. Luckily we are still at a time range where there is a lot to change, and for now ECM and GEM aren't agreeing. But the consistency is alarming on the GFS, with strong wind fields, sufficient instability, and a favourable warm sector somewhere from Texas into Georgia on almost every single run for the last few days. So not worth getting concerned about yet, but in my opinion probably worth watching.
 

KevinH

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Obviously way too earlier for specifics... but 12z GFS continues the severe threat, with what I must admit is quite a concerning look. Luckily we are still at a time range where there is a lot to change, and for now ECM and GEM aren't agreeing. But the consistency is alarming on the GFS, with strong wind fields, sufficient instability, and a favourable warm sector somewhere from Texas into Georgia on almost every single run for the last few days. So not worth getting concerned about yet, but in my opinion probably worth watching.
I say if the models come into better agreement consistently OR if the SPC highlights a day, start a thread.
 

UncleJuJu98

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I say if the models come into better agreement consistently OR if the SPC highlights a day, start a thread.
waiting on the euro to jump on board with the GFS with a consistent evolution then they'll put one up. Euro still wants a couple of snow event looks for the south. The euro is playing hard ball with a miller A and GFS is playing hardball with a major severe event.

A simple solution for this would be to meet in the middle and makes this a south Alabama and Mississippi threat lol.
 

KevinH

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waiting on the euro to jump on board with the GFS with a consistent evolution then they'll put one up. Euro still wants a couple of snow event looks for the south. The euro is playing hard ball with a miller A and GFS is playing hardball with a major severe event.

A simple solution for this would be to meet in the middle and makes this a south Alabama and Mississippi threat lol.
Thank you for not mentioning Georgia lol
 

warneagle

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I'm gonna take GFS fantasy land soundings with a huge grain of salt, especially given that the model agreement isn't very good right now. The Euro has the low over Indiana in that same time frame. Worth watching but not exactly time to sound the alarm bells yet.
 

UncleJuJu98

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I'm gonna take GFS fantasy land soundings with a huge grain of salt, especially given that the model agreement isn't very good right now. The Euro has the low over Indiana in that same time frame. Worth watching but not exactly time to sound the alarm bells yet.
What're you talking about the euro having the low over Indiana..? the euro actually has gotten on board with the GFS here the last two runs lol. They all either track on the Gulf Coast or through Arkansas and Memphis area... Unless your talking about the difference in timing with the bombogensis when it gets into the Midwest.

Both the 12Z Suites of the GFS and EURO. gfs_z500_mslp_us_39.pngecmwf_z500_mslp_us_58.png
 
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JPWX

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The 12z Euro and 12z Canadian are just plain nasty looking at the 500mb level between the 23rd and 25th. Euro actually has two back to back severe weather threats. First
one around the 23rd and then the next one around the 25th.

gem-all-conus-z500_speed-4615600.pnggem-all-conus-z500_speed-4453600.pngecmwf-deterministic-conus-z500_speed-4604800.pngecmwf-deterministic-conus-z500_speed-4432000.png
 

KevinH

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warneagle

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What're you talking about the euro having the low over Indiana..? the euro actually has gotten on board with the GFS here the last two runs lol. They all either track on the Gulf Coast or through Arkansas and Memphis area...

Both the 12Z Suites of the GFS and EURO.
Those maps are for Tuesday the 24th, the maps in the original tweet are for Wednesday the 25th.
 
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