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Severe Weather 2018

This severe weather season will be?

  • Above Average

    Votes: 7 31.8%

  • Average

    Votes: 13 59.1%

  • Below Average

    Votes: 2 9.1%
  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .
SilentShadow87 said:
Really says something when the most memorable tornadoes this year have been in Wyoming, Manitoba, Montana, and Ontario.
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To be frank those would be A+ chases (except the Ontario one) in any given year. Its just been the more traditional tornado alley (between I-20 and I-80 from the Wyoming/Colorado/New Mexico border E to I-35) has had a record quiet year so they stand out more.
 
Wonder with this se ridge being so stout ... could it persist into winter ... causing a active cool weather severe season. ... I know we’re in nino stage. Kind strange with the persistent stout se ridge...
 
That confirmed tornado in PA apparently hit a nursing home, hopefully no casualties there. Several discrete supercells tracking across the northern part of the state.

 
Tornado watch is coming for northern WI.

mcd1518.gif
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
wow... i know its 240 hours out there... but look at the 0z euro ummmm
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I think you had a dream last night. I like those dreams too, but in reality I’m not seeing anything that impressive yet. I see potential, but a lot of work is needed.
 
Overall, the pattern looks stormier, but it looks like a classic "entering El Nino" pattern. As with most patterns, the more active it is, the greater potential of something, but I don't see a particular time frame/system any models are latching onto.
 
Kory said:
Overall, the pattern looks stormier, but it looks like a classic "entering El Nino" pattern. As with most patterns, the more active it is, the greater potential of something, but I don't see a particular time frame/system any models are latching onto.
Click to expand...

The monthly temperature outlook for November is a warmer and stormier one too.

I wouldn't be suprised to get at least 1-2 substantial threats between now and mid-December. These entering Nino falls seem to be our more conductive cool season patterns and 2002 is a seasonal analog that's fairly popular.

I'm hoping that translates to a 2003-esque plains season since next May could potentially be by far my longest duration trip out there for a few reasons (Not limited to scouting out a potential move to Denver post-graduation due to an abundance of potential jobs in that area), but I'm not holding my breath on that.
 
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