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Archive Severe threat April 26-27, 2011

BlountWolf
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:50 PM

xtreme weather, on 26 April 2011 - 06:43 PM, said:

In AL.......along I-20/59 to HWY 278 could be the "hot zone" give or take 50mi either side
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Lovely.
 
mhogue1981
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:53 PM

FlorenceWx, on 26 April 2011 - 06:41 PM, said:

Sutton, I went back and watched it again and yeah, I mixed up tonight and tomorrow,you're right they are serious about tomorrow. I don't think they are really going as far as some of the earlier TORCON and STP data were suggesting though. Would you agree?
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Brad Travis on 48 had the tornado/wind threat at extreme for tomorrow afternoon (first time I'd seen that). He also said that he hope early morning convection would stall over N. AL. and that would kill the severe threat. He seemed skeptical that would happen though. The future prediction software 48 uses definitely showed supercell storms around 3pm tomorrow though.
 
Fred Gossage
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:55 PM

xtreme weather, on 26 April 2011 - 06:43 PM, said:

IF this trend continues I think it is possible that over xtreme N MS, NW AL and central TN there could be the "junk" factor coming into play......in turn would lay down a boundry over central MS and W AL and act as a focal point for tomorrows action to fire around mid-day.....

W/gun to my head Jackson to Columbus, MS--Tuscaloosa, Huntsville, Cullman, Birmingham, Anniston to Montgomery (yes I know thinking tick farther south and east) AL in the bullseye.

In AL.......along I-20/59 to HWY 278 could be the "hot zone" give or take 50mi either side

BUT I CAUTION these are random thoughts/obvs EVERYONE must be weather aware tomorrow!

.....carry on
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I personally feel like what "junk" convection there is... will be moving rapidly out of the way tomorrow morning, possibly faster than the NAM shows. Also, with the storms closer to I-20 to our west running into capping as they head eastward later tonight, they will likely weaken. A lot of the high resolution, proprietary models that are usually accurate... show this well... and the SPC WRF has suggested this also. In these low amplitude events with a fast upper jet... MCS complexes often also move faster than the synoptic models show. I think most of the overnight stuff stays north of US 278/west of I-65... if even affecting Alabama at all... and then clears the LLJ axis by mid morning or so. There may actually be some mid-level subsidence behind the junk.... that would help break holes in the clouds.

 
FoulWeather
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:00 PM

Fred Gossage, on 26 April 2011 - 06:55 PM, said:

I personally feel like what "junk" convection there is... will be moving rapidly out of the way tomorrow morning, possibly faster than the NAM shows. Also, with the storms closer to I-20 to our west running into capping as they head eastward later tonight, they will likely weaken. A lot of the high resolution, proprietary models that are usually accurate... show this well... and the SPC WRF has suggested this also. In these low amplitude events with a fast upper jet... MCS complexes often also move faster than the synoptic models show. I think most of the overnight stuff stays north of US 278/west of I-65... if even affecting Alabama at all... and then clears the LLJ axis by mid morning or so. There may actually be some mid-level subsidence behind the junk.... that would help break holes in the clouds.
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Fred, what time will the threat move into North Ala S. Tenn tomorrow?
 
Fred Gossage
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:01 PM

FoulWeather, on 26 April 2011 - 07:00 PM, said:

Fred, what time will the threat move into North Ala S. Tenn tomorrow?
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I expect a PDS Tornado Watch to be issued before Noon tomorrow... probably in the 10:00 or 11:00 hours.

 
FoulWeather
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:02 PM

Fred Gossage, on 26 April 2011 - 07:01 PM, said:

I expect a PDS Tornado Watch to be issued before Noon tomorrow... probably in the 10:00 or 11:00 hours.
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Check. Thanks.
 
Fred Gossage
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:07 PM

FoulWeather, on 26 April 2011 - 07:04 PM, said:

Wasn't this guy on WREG on WHNT at one time?
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Yes, he was the chief meteorologist at WHNT before Satterfield came to town.
 
FlorenceWx
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:07 PM

mhogue1981, on 26 April 2011 - 06:53 PM, said:

Brad Travis on 48 had the tornado/wind threat at extreme for tomorrow afternoon (first time I'd seen that). He also said that he hope early morning convection would stall over N. AL. and that would kill the severe threat. He seemed skeptical that would happen though. The future prediction software 48 uses definitely showed supercell storms around 3pm tomorrow though.
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Definitely leaned more towards that at 6pm. Definitely a long 24 hrs coming up
 
Kolle
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:08 PM

FoulWeather, on 26 April 2011 - 07:04 PM, said:

Wasn't this guy on WREG on WHNT at one time?
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Yes. I remember watching Tim Simpson as a wee lad years ago. Satterfield was his replacement.

 
smokedevil
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:10 PM

new watch is out..all of north Ms, some of tenn..I assume its a PDS watch, but cant find the text.
Edited by smokedevil, 26 April 2011 - 07:11 PM.

 
FoulWeather
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:10 PM

Kolle, on 26 April 2011 - 07:08 PM, said:

Yes. I remember watching Tim Simpson as a wee lad years ago. Satterfield was his replacement.
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I knew I had seen him before.
 
Fred Gossage
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:11 PM

This is going to seem like an alarmist type post... but folks that have followed me for a while know that I'm not the intentional hype-type... I try to just be straight and tell it like I think it is... and if I Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, I Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency... and learn from it.....

With that said, tomorrow is quite easily the most dangerous setup I've seen in the state of Alabama in the 17 years I have been studying weather.
 
Fred Gossage
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:12 PM

smokedevil, on 26 April 2011 - 07:10 PM, said:

new watch is out..all of north Ms, some of tenn..I assume its a PDS watch, but cant find the text.
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It's not a new watch. It is a county expansion of the ongoing PDS watch already in place.

 
rlsrlj
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:13 PM

Fred Gossage, on 26 April 2011 - 06:55 PM, said:

I personally feel like what "junk" convection there is... will be moving rapidly out of the way tomorrow morning, possibly faster than the NAM shows. Also, with the storms closer to I-20 to our west running into capping as they head eastward later tonight, they will likely weaken. A lot of the high resolution, proprietary models that are usually accurate... show this well... and the SPC WRF has suggested this also. In these low amplitude events with a fast upper jet... MCS complexes often also move faster than the synoptic models show. I think most of the overnight stuff stays north of US 278/west of I-65... if even affecting Alabama at all... and then clears the LLJ axis by mid morning or so. There may actually be some mid-level subsidence behind the junk.... that would help break holes in the clouds.
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Fred,
J and I looked over everything closely this afternoon and agree. The lead shortwave moves almost due north late tonight. The rpm earlier run showed leftover rain/storms but it's the only one.

If we are correct, Iam afraid tomorrow will be a terrible day.
 
FoulWeather
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:14 PM

Fred Gossage, on 26 April 2011 - 07:11 PM, said:

This is going to seem like an alarmist type post... but folks that have followed me for a while know that I'm not the intentional hype-type... I try to just be straight and tell it like I think it is... and if I Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, I Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency... and learn from it.....

With that said, tomorrow is quite easily the most dangerous setup I've seen in the state of Alabama in the 17 years I have been studying weather.
Click to expand...


You said it, brother.
 
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