Archive Severe threat April 26-27, 2011

[TW Archive]

JeffnTrussville
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:05 PM

Argus, on 26 April 2011 - 05:58 PM, said:

How bad could the weather be in northeast Georgia tomorrow morning through tomorrow afternoon?

Seriously?

 

[TW Archive]

trency911
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:06 PM

Argus, on 26 April 2011 - 05:58 PM, said:

How bad could the weather be in northeast Georgia tomorrow morning through tomorrow afternoon?

Don't really know...Right now FFC is calling for scattered supercells in the afternoon across their entire county watch, with all modes of severe weather possible. Then scroll-line coming in overnight. As far as the morning...don't know.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=ffc&gc=2
Edited by trency911, 26 April 2011 - 06:07 PM.

 

[TW Archive]

weatherguy
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:07 PM

Reed Timmer just intercepted in the Dominator near Edom, TX. Debris was slamming the right side of the vehicle.

 

[TW Archive]

Weatherphreak
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:08 PM

Looks like rotation really tightening up west of Memphis. Looks like it'll track just north of the metro

 

[TW Archive]

FlorenceWx
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:11 PM

xtreme weather, on 26 April 2011 - 05:29 PM, said:

for and E MS and N and central AL tomorrow watching closely the activity to our W it has a true NE component it appears based on radar trends at least right now we may not get that stormy weather forecasted to move our way overnight into the a.m. yes it can still happen........

but leaning to literally a loaded gun pointed over these areas if convection continues to stay away and to our NE....

Just noticed what you're talking about xtreme, what do you think the odds it continues that NE movement are? The TV mets in N AL all think it will blow through here and diminish the tornado threat and seem to be downplaying the tornado threat. Thanks!
EDIT: Still saying possibility of tornadoes but nowhere near what data is showing
Edited by FlorenceWx, 26 April 2011 - 06:17 PM.

 

[TW Archive]

smokedevil
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:12 PM

funnel on wreg.

 

[TW Archive]

gawxnative
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:12 PM

VERY TIGHT COUPLET West Memphis... POWER FLASHES WREG video

 

[TW Archive]

Weatherphreak
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:12 PM

Wow just saw where MEG is projecting that rotation over downtown. I hope that is not the case with that radar signature. Looks like it could already be producing

 

[TW Archive]

a5ehren
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:15 PM

Crazy storm south of DFW. Went from absolutely nothing to supercell in 3 radar frames.

 

[TW Archive]

sutton82
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:18 PM

FlorenceWx, on 26 April 2011 - 06:11 PM, said:

Just noticed what you're talking about xtreme, what do you think the odds it continues that NE movement are? The TV mets in N AL all think it will blow through here and diminish the tornado threat and seem to be downplaying the tornado threat. Thanks!

Who did you watch? 19 and 48 said it COULD diminish the threat, which is the truth. They all still think it will likely be bad.

Edit: I may have misunderstood you. They downplayed the threat tonight, but seemed serious about tomorrow.
Edited by sutton82, 26 April 2011 - 06:24 PM.

 

[TW Archive]

Weatherphreak
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:20 PM

That Memphis rotation looks even worse in the last sweep. Anyone watching a Memphis news stream like wreg? I'm very concerned about what could be entering Memphis

 

[TW Archive]

StormStalker
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:21 PM

Not sure where Reed Timmer is out but he got an intercept.

 

[TW Archive]

AprilA
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:25 PM

I'm watching wreg on tv right now. They just showed a cam shot and it looked pretty ominous... They said it could be a rain wrapped tornado. Said their sirens are going off...

 

[TW Archive]

Weatherphreak
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:26 PM

bjd, on 26 April 2011 - 06:23 PM, said:

In West Memphis at this moment, heading for downtown Memphis, but already in heavily populated areas. Traveling 25-30 mph. Wish it was more like 70 mph.

Check it out: http://www.wreg.com/

Barb

Wish I could. Firewall at work has streaming video blocked. Looking at storm relative its showing some very strong rotation.

 

[TW Archive]

bjd
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:33 PM

Weatherphreak, on 26 April 2011 - 06:26 PM, said:

Wish I could. Firewall at work has streaming video blocked. Looking at storm relative its showing some very strong rotation.

It may go a bit north of downtown, per current shots. Sped up to 40 mph. Very heavy rainfall; they can't spot it on the cam but believe it may be rain-wrapped. Pity you can't see it - they've got 3D up now.

Barb

Edit: Looks like it will go north of downtown; per WREG, currently expected at Frayser on 6:42, then Bartlett, then Millinton, then Arlington, and then at 7:12 Brighton.

Tunica County, MS, has 3 warnings, they say.

Edit again: Apparently not seeing the tornado; they note strong shear west of Millington, 127 mph; and moderate shear NW of the loop in Memphis.

Edit again: Tornado warning south of Millington, moving east at 45 mph.

Edit: There's just too much going on to write it down. Severe T-storm warning in the Memphis area, looks like. Two tornado warnings in MS, most southern one, Sherard at 6:55 through Belen 7:27, currently posted; north of that another one expected to be at West Helena at 7 p.m. through Little Texas at 7:32.
Edited by bjd, 26 April 2011 - 06:50 PM.

 

[TW Archive]

rinato
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:39 PM

What impact (if any) will the abscence of previously forecasteed rain for today (tuesday) in bham area, have on the severity of weather on wednesday

 

[TW Archive]

FlorenceWx
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:41 PM

sutton82, on 26 April 2011 - 06:18 PM, said:

Who did you watch? 19 and 48 said it COULD diminish the threat, which is the truth. They all still think it will likely be bad.

Edit: I may have misunderstood you. They downplayed the threat tonight, but seemed serious about tomorrow.

Sutton, I went back and watched it again and yeah, I mixed up tonight and tomorrow,you're right they are serious about tomorrow. I don't think they are really going as far as some of the earlier TORCON and STP data were suggesting though. Would you agree?

 

[TW Archive]

trency911
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:42 PM

MSD mentions strengthening of low-level jet in next couple of hours.

SVR CONVECTION...INCLUDING SEVERAL POTENTIALLY TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA FROM ERN OK TO MS RIVER NEAR MEM.

WARM-SECTOR ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS. IN FACT...PRE-STORM LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SIGNIFICANT/DESTRUCTIVE
TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS AS LLJ STRENGTHENS
JUST ABOVE SFC...SUBSTANTIALLY BOOSTING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SRH.
LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL ALSO IS LIKELY FROM INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER ERN OK JUST W FSM...COLD FRONT SWWD
ACROSS LAMAR COUNTY TX...QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE CURVING NEWD
OVER NWRN AND EXTREME N-CENTRAL AR. FRONT BECOMES COLD FRONT AGAIN
FROM NERN AR NEWD ACROSS SERN MO. THOSE FRONTAL ZONES WILL ACT AS
NRN/WRN BOUNDS FOR SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS...ALTHOUGH
TSTMS TO THEIR N AND W ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO REGION WILL BE
IN FAVORABLE ELEVATED SHEAR AND BUOYANCY FOR LARGE HAIL. IN REGIME
OF STG LOW-LEVEL WAA AND SHEAR SE OF FRONTAL ZONE...OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION OVER AR MAY MIX/ADVECT
AWAY RATHER QUICKLY...BUT ALSO CAN SUPPLY ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY/SHEAR ABOVE ALREADY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL VALUES. MODIFIED
RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE RANGING FROM 3000 J/KG OVER
CONVECTIVELY UNPERTURBED AIR MASS OF CENTRAL/SRN AR...NARROWING TO
CORRIDOR OF 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE NEWD TOWARD LOWEST OH VALLEY.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 50-60 KT AND 0-1 KM SRH 150-300 J/KG ARE
COMMON...WITH SRH FCST TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 00Z BENEATH
LLJ.

 

[TW Archive]

xtreme weather
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:43 PM

FlorenceWx, on 26 April 2011 - 06:11 PM, said:

Just noticed what you're talking about xtreme, what do you think the odds it continues that NE movement are? The TV mets in N AL all think it will blow through here and diminish the tornado threat and seem to be downplaying the tornado threat. Thanks!
EDIT: Still saying possibility of tornadoes but nowhere near what data is showing

IF this trend continues I think it is possible that over xtreme N MS, NW AL and central TN there could be the "junk" factor coming into play......in turn would lay down a boundry over central MS and W AL and act as a focal point for tomorrows action to fire around mid-day.....

W/gun to my head Jackson to Columbus, MS--Tuscaloosa, Huntsville, Cullman, Birmingham, Anniston to Montgomery (yes I know thinking tick farther south and east) AL in the bullseye.

In AL.......along I-20/59 to HWY 278 could be the "hot zone" give or take 50mi either side

BUT I CAUTION these are random thoughts/obvs EVERYONE must be weather aware tomorrow!

.....carry on

 

[TW Archive]

sutton82
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:43 PM

FlorenceWx, on 26 April 2011 - 06:41 PM, said:

Sutton, I went back and watched it again and yeah, I mixed up tonight and tomorrow,you're right they are serious about tomorrow. I don't think they are really going as far as some of the earlier TORCON and STP data were suggesting though. Would you agree?

I think they are right on the money. I don't put much stock in TORCON.