Archive Severe threat April 26-27, 2011

[TW Archive]

South AL Wx
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:19 PM

Significant structural damage in Coahoma, MS according to MEG LSR.

 

[TW Archive]

rlsrlj
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:19 PM

FoulWeather, on 26 April 2011 - 07:14 PM, said:

You said it, brother.

Completely agree. If there is ever a time to be an alarmist-this is the time. The signs just don't get any clearer.
Edited by rlsrlj, 26 April 2011 - 07:20 PM.

 

[TW Archive]

trency911
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:20 PM

Fred Gossage, on 26 April 2011 - 07:11 PM, said:

This is going to seem like an alarmist type post... but folks that have followed me for a while know that I'm not the intentional hype-type... I try to just be straight and tell it like I think it is... and if I Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, I Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency... and learn from it.....

With that said, tomorrow is quite easily the most dangerous setup I've seen in the state of Alabama in the 17 years I have been studying weather.

Your post seriously just gave me chills, and I don't even live in Alabama.
Edited by trency911, 26 April 2011 - 07:21 PM.

 

[TW Archive]

FoulWeather
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:23 PM

WREG is giving tornado warnings as fast as they can. Wild.

 

[TW Archive]

trency911
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:24 PM

Watch out for that TOR warned cell fixing to cross TX/LA border.

 

[TW Archive]

ProjectVortex1974
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:24 PM

Fred Gossage, on 26 April 2011 - 07:11 PM, said:

This is going to seem like an alarmist type post... but folks that have followed me for a while know that I'm not the intentional hype-type... I try to just be straight and tell it like I think it is... and if I Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, I Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency... and learn from it.....

With that said, tomorrow is quite easily the most dangerous setup I've seen in the state of Alabama in the 17 years I have been studying weather.

Fred hearing that from you really perked up my eyes.You definitely got my attention. I will be keeping a close eye on things. Being a ham I will hope our local repeater stays online to keep the weather service advised on conditions in this area. Always respect your evaluation of things. Please keep us advised.

 

[TW Archive]

South AL Wx
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:25 PM

South AL Wx, on 26 April 2011 - 07:19 PM, said:

Significant structural damage in Coahoma, MS according to MEG LSR.

Now reports of 2 homes destroyed in Coahoma. Also reports of houses destroyed in Friars Point.

 

[TW Archive]

Parysa
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:29 PM

Fred Gossage, on 26 April 2011 - 07:11 PM, said:

This is going to seem like an alarmist type post... but folks that have followed me for a while know that I'm not the intentional hype-type... I try to just be straight and tell it like I think it is... and if I Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, I Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency... and learn from it.....

With that said, tomorrow is quite easily the most dangerous setup I've seen in the state of Alabama in the 17 years I have been studying weather.

trency911, on 26 April 2011 - 07:20 PM, said:


Your post seriously just gave me chills, and I don't even live in Alabama.

*Gulps* I do.
I'm keeping my son out of school tomorrow. This situation honestly has me scared. If it looks like it's going to be worst-case scenario, though, we'll go to UAH and hide in one of the basements or protective areas.

 

[TW Archive]

Ghost
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:33 PM

Check that hook signature on the storm 20 mi west of Shreveport!

 

[TW Archive]

RollTide18
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:33 PM

Im still trying to convince my parents to let me stay out tommorow. Even though the bullseye is north of me, im still worried.

 

[TW Archive]

xtreme weather
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:33 PM

Fred Gossage, on 26 April 2011 - 06:55 PM, said:

I personally feel like what "junk" convection there is... will be moving rapidly out of the way tomorrow morning, possibly faster than the NAM shows. Also, with the storms closer to I-20 to our west running into capping as they head eastward later tonight, they will likely weaken. A lot of the high resolution, proprietary models that are usually accurate... show this well... and the SPC WRF has suggested this also. In these low amplitude events with a fast upper jet... MCS complexes often also move faster than the synoptic models show. I think most of the overnight stuff stays north of US 278/west of I-65... if even affecting Alabama at all... and then clears the LLJ axis by mid morning or so. There may actually be some mid-level subsidence behind the junk.... that would help break holes in the clouds.

um think that is what I was saying lolz....just trying to hon in on the possible area that has the greatest risk...it may be that NE MS and NW AL along w/S and central TN have more to overcome if storms/precip clip these areas overnight as per the radar "trends" therefore areas just to the S may have a more unstable atmosphere to work with plus more sunshine and may be the "hot spot"

 

[TW Archive]

WxFreak
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:34 PM

Fred Gossage, on 26 April 2011 - 07:11 PM, said:

This is going to seem like an alarmist type post... but folks that have followed me for a while know that I'm not the intentional hype-type... I try to just be straight and tell it like I think it is... and if I Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, I Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency... and learn from it.....

With that said, tomorrow is quite easily the most dangerous setup I've seen in the state of Alabama in the 17 years I have been studying weather.

Gonne be a long day tomorrow

 

[TW Archive]

Fred Gossage
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:35 PM

Parysa, on 26 April 2011 - 07:29 PM, said:

*Gulps* I do.
I'm keeping my son out of school tomorrow. This situation honestly has me scared. If it looks like it's going to be worst-case scenario, though, we'll go to UAH and hide in one of the basements or protective areas.

Even in the worst-case scenario... and there are multiple higher-end tornadoes... as long as you have a way of hearing the warnings when they are issued, and you have an action plan for no matter where you are... you will almost surely be fine, no matter what happens. Also remember... even in the most widespread tornado outbreaks (even in a 1974 ordeal, which tomorrow will not be), the mathematical probability of it being your one house or your one street that gets hit by a powerful tornado... is very small. Even a mile-wide tornado is a dot on a map, within a tornado watch area.

 

[TW Archive]

Fred Gossage
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:37 PM

xtreme weather, on 26 April 2011 - 07:33 PM, said:

um think that is what I was saying lolz....just trying to hon in on the possible area that has the greatest risk...it may be that NE MS and NW AL along w/S and central TN have more to overcome if storms/precip clip these areas overnight as per the radar "trends" therefore areas just to the S may have a more unstable atmosphere to work with plus more sunshine and may be the "hot spot"

Just because I make a post in response to something you have said... doesn't mean I am arguing with you. Am I not allowed to back you up and explain my take on things when I agree with you?

 

[TW Archive]

trency911
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:37 PM

Quick question. TVS on GR Level 2 analyst, when you move your mouse over it it has a threshold and then a number. It also has a list of numbers on the left, and ft on the right. Is this the strength of rotation through the entire column or what? Also what is the significance of the threshold number?

 

[TW Archive]

mhogue1981
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:38 PM

Parysa, on 26 April 2011 - 07:29 PM, said:

*Gulps* I do.
I'm keeping my son out of school tomorrow. This situation honestly has me scared. If it looks like it's going to be worst-case scenario, though, we'll go to UAH and hide in one of the basements or protective areas.

Don't be scared.. Be proactive. Make plans to stay weather aware and have a plan. I've called all my family that lives in mobile homes and told them to make plans to get to safer shelter all day tomorrow. It took me a while to convince them to leave but telling them that all the fatalities* in the outbreak last week were associated with trailer homes help sell them on leaving.

Edit: *All the fatalities in Alabama..

 

[TW Archive]

smokedevil
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:40 PM

ohhh man, we have mammatus clouds. awesome site.

 

[TW Archive]

xtreme weather
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:47 PM

Fred Gossage, on 26 April 2011 - 07:37 PM, said:



Just because I make a post in response to something you have said... doesn't mean I am arguing with you. Am I not allowed to back you up and explain my take on things when I agree with you?

when does

Quote

lolz

mean/come around as arguing? .....if I took it the wrong way I think you know me well enough from over the years posting by now I would have had a completely different tone and wording

I *think*/or thought at least maybe we are on the same page as for greatest potential threat.....then again maybe not

 

[TW Archive]

David in SW Blount
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:49 PM

Fred Gossage, on 26 April 2011 - 07:11 PM, said:

With that said, tomorrow is quite easily the most dangerous setup I've seen in the state of Alabama in the 17 years I have been studying weather.

Wow, Fred. Coming from you, that makes my stomach sink about as low as it can go.

I'm hoping my College closes early enough for me to get home and intercept the kids before they get home from school. Yikes.

 

[TW Archive]

tornadicane
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:50 PM

Anyone checked the 18z NAM BUFKIT for Columbus, MS..... 17.9 EHI @ 5pm ( CAPE 4411, HELICITY 650). Prob a bit overdone regarding CAPE... Anxiously awaiting the 0z data, then 6z, then nowcast!! I'm a little nervous. I do know that a one hour snapshot of the atmosphere modeled 24 hours into the future isn't exactly concrete data, however the numbers were astonishing...