Archive Severe threat April 26-27, 2011

[MichelleH]

This thread is a real-time re-creation of the April 27, 2011 event thread. Posts in this thread will be made at the same date and time as the original thread in 2011. Replies will not be allowed in this thread, instead we ask that you use the April 27, 2011 discussion thread instead.


MichelleH
Posted 20 April 2011 - 07:09 AM

From the ABC 33/40 weather blog this morning:

"NEXT WEEK: Sure looks like a significant severe weather event is ahead, initially west of Alabama Tuesday, then moving into the Deep South by Tuesday night and Wednesday. Way too early to be specific on the threat, but all of the players are on the field. Best hope for us is for the band of storms to come through during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday when the air tends to be more stable, but I get the idea it might be an event mainly during the daytime Wednesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for details."

I can't read models, so for those that can, what's your take on this?

 

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trency911

Posted 20 April 2011 - 07:16 AM

BMX mentioned this system yesterday. Plenty of moisture for this system to work with.

 

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gwalls
Posted 20 April 2011 - 08:38 AM

I'm sick of spring...I'm sick of having allergies....I'm sick of having rain every other day. I want the sun to shine and no more severe weather. When is this pattern going to change?

 

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SD
Posted 20 April 2011 - 08:43 AM

Fairly concering large scale setup showing, especially on the euro.

 

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AprilA
Posted 20 April 2011 - 09:17 AM

gwalls, on 20 April 2011 - 08:38 AM, said:

I'm sick of spring...I'm sick of having allergies....I'm sick of having rain every other day. I want the sun to shine and no more severe weather. When is this pattern going to change?

I have to agree! Our grass is knee high.. We haven't been able to mow once this year, it's been so wet :/ 2 acres of knee high grass is gonna be fun trying to mow, if it ever dries up enough to mow...

 

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sutton82

Posted 20 April 2011 - 10:01 AM

SD, on 20 April 2011 - 08:43 AM, said:

Fairly concering large scale setup showing, especially on the euro.
HUN hinted in a recent AFD that they are leaning towards the EURO.

A long way to go with this one. Should be fun to watch.

 

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gwalls

Posted 20 April 2011 - 10:26 AM

AprilA, on 20 April 2011 - 09:17 AM, said:

I have to agree! Our grass is knee high.. We haven't been able to mow once this year, it's been so wet :/ 2 acres of knee high grass is gonna be fun trying to mow, if it ever dries up enough to mow...

Isn't that the truth...it will take a week of sun to dry it up enough to mow. Doesn't look like that's happening for a while. This weather is seriously messing my schedules up. Its baseball season for us and at the rate we are going we'll be playing until November.LOL! Did you have much damage last night? Blytheville was hit pretty hard but we escaped it out here.

 

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trency911

Posted 20 April 2011 - 10:33 AM

Still far out there, but a very large warm sector with widespread 60-70 Td's from the Ohio Valley south to the coast. I know things will change, but taking a quick look at hodo's and once again they are long and clockwise curving with impressive 0-3KM helicity values.

 

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SD
Posted 20 April 2011 - 05:17 PM

One mitigating factor in the long run for this type of setup may be a limited to non existent EML. Given the prolonged period of direct flow out of the gulf its possible we may just totally load the profiles with moisture and get much more of a mid summer type look versus a spring look. But Im just thinking out loud really.

 

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trency911
Posted 20 April 2011 - 05:25 PM

SD, on 20 April 2011 - 05:17 PM, said:

One mitigating factor in the long run for this type of setup may be a limited to non existent EML. Given the prolonged period of direct flow out of the gulf its possible we may just totally load the profiles with moisture and get much more of a mid summer type look versus a spring look. But Im just thinking out loud really.

EML is like the CAP right?

 

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SD
Posted 20 April 2011 - 05:37 PM

trency911, on 20 April 2011 - 05:25 PM, said:

EML is like the CAP right?

It is..here is a good write up with tons of example soundings
http://www.bangladeshtornadoes.org/EML/emlpage.html

 

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trency911
Posted 20 April 2011 - 05:50 PM

SD, on 20 April 2011 - 05:37 PM, said:

It is..here is a good write up with tons of example soundings
http://www.bangladeshtornadoes.org/EML/emlpage.html

Thanks for the link.

 

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ProjectVortex1974
Posted 20 April 2011 - 06:58 PM

Has anyone noticed the new graphics the SPC is using for their convective outlooks?

 

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AprilA
Posted 20 April 2011 - 07:15 PM

gwalls, on 20 April 2011 - 10:26 AM, said:

Isn't that the truth...it will take a week of sun to dry it up enough to mow. Doesn't look like that's happening for a while. This weather is seriously messing my schedules up. Its baseball season for us and at the rate we are going we'll be playing until November.LOL! Did you have much damage last night? Blytheville was hit pretty hard but we escaped it out here.

At this point it may take longer than a week...lol At least we didn't get much rain last night. We dodged the bullet last night. we're just a hair north of Gosnell, just barely into MO. We heard Gosnell's sirens going off in our backyard. I saw a little damage when I drove through Gosnell today, but it was minimal. We didn't have any damage, but the wind blew our satellite out of alignment.. Thought we were going to get some more rain this evening, but it stayed south of here, thankfully. Hope it's not storming Friday because that's the market set-up day and we have an open bed truck.. I don't want my stuff to get wet!

 

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ARCC
Posted 21 April 2011 - 06:25 AM

0z GFS is getting closer to showing another tornado outbreak for this time frame.

 

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Tyler Penland
Posted 21 April 2011 - 12:08 PM

Its a week out but does it look like N GA will get left out of this one too?

 

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trency911
Posted 21 April 2011 - 12:42 PM

Tyler Penland, on 21 April 2011 - 12:08 PM, said:

Its a week out but does it look like N GA will get left out of this one too?

Timing will probably change, but 12z gfs has it coming through Wednesday afternoon into the evening.

 

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trency911
Posted 21 April 2011 - 03:26 PM

BMX

THE UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD AND BRING AND A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN BACK INTO ALABAMA NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING INITIAL SURFACE LOW OVER OKLAHOMA AND PULLING IT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAKENING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS WEST ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH AND BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS TO ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE RAIN BY THURSDAY.

 

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wxfan22
Posted 21 April 2011 - 04:11 PM

NWS Memphis mentioning two potentially higher end events in todays AFD

 

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smokedevil
Posted 21 April 2011 - 04:18 PM

yes, and here it is.....

THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH A BIT FOR SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER...ALMOST IDENTICAL SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK FROM NORTH TEXAS THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH WILL GIVE THE MIDSOUTH A GOOD SHOT AT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ONE OR BOTH BEING SIGNIFICANT
OUTBREAKS - PARTICULARLY AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS EACH NIGHT AND
LENGTHENS THE HODOGRAPHS. PROLONGED FETCH OF MOISTURE LADEN AIR
SHOULD BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD. STORM
MODE AND TIMING ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE DYNAMICS AND
SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO HIGHER END EVENTS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.