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Archive Severe threat April 26-27, 2011 (4 Viewers)


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ARCC
Posted 21 April 2011 - 04:27 PM

The second one has all the looks of a possibly major outbreak across MS and AL. Instability is lacking on the GFS as of now, but that will likely change. Had better hope the timing changes or we may deal with a mid-night outbreak. Fun.
 

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trency911
Posted 21 April 2011 - 04:39 PM

From Henry on Accuwx...I know,I know.

590x392_04211714_severe1.png

 

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sutton82
Posted 21 April 2011 - 04:50 PM

trency911, on 21 April 2011 - 04:39 PM, said:

From Henry on Accuwx...I know,I know.

That is completely irresponsible of him to do at this time. His blog post sounds too matter of fact, instead of saying it is just a possibility.

Note: I removed the image for space concerns, see quoted post for image.
 

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StormNine59
Posted 21 April 2011 - 05:05 PM

With all the heavy rains falling along the Ohio River, and across the northern-mid portions of the MS river valley. I would a little on down the line be very concerned with river flooding for both the OH River, MS River, and some of their tributaries.
 

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acral
Posted 21 April 2011 - 05:09 PM

April showers bring May flowers... hehehe Seriously, it does look like the players are taking the field early next week... should be quite interesting.
 

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Taylor Campbell
Posted 21 April 2011 - 07:47 PM

trency911, on 21 April 2011 - 12:42 PM, said:

Timing will probably change, but 12z gfs has it coming through Wednesday afternoon into the evening.


The GFS has already been all over the place today. Lol. The 06z seems to be somewhere in the middle which is slower then the 12z by a tad, but still coming through during the afternoon and evening which will help pose a higher threat for Georgia.
 

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Tyler Penland
Posted 21 April 2011 - 08:36 PM

TaylorCampbell, on 21 April 2011 - 07:47 PM, said:

The GFS has already been all over the place today. Lol. The 06z seems to be somewhere in the middle which is slower then the 12z by a tad, but still coming through during the afternoon and evening which will help pose a higher threat for Georgia.


It will probably end up being yet another night event so I don't get to see barely even any lightning. Not hoping for an EF5 or anything but some small hail and strong winds would be nice. It'd help get rid of all this pollen.
Edited by Tyler Penland, 21 April 2011 - 08:36 PM.

 

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bingcrosbyb
Posted 21 April 2011 - 09:00 PM

Heck of a TVS showing up in Texas right now on GR3.
 

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bingcrosbyb
Posted 21 April 2011 - 09:04 PM

And there it is. Never seen one that displays possible storm impacts. Must be an office preference.

Quote

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
903 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011

TXC253-441-220230-
/O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-110422T0230Z/
JONES TX-TAYLOR TX-
903 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN TAYLOR AND SOUTHEASTERN JONES COUNTIES...

AT 900 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS CONFIRMED! THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR HODGES...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF ABILENE...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.


STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS.
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS...
OVERTURNED VEHICLES...
DAMAGE TO TREES...SOME MAY BE UPROOTED...
DAMAGE TO HOMES...MAY DESTROY MANUFACTURED HOMES.
DENTED VEHICLES
MODERATE ROOF DAMAGE
MAY BREAK WINDOWS ON VEHICLES AND HOMES
MAY INJURE PEOPLE...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK LEFT UNPROTECTED.
DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS...
LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
IMPACT AND ABILENE BY 910 PM CDT...
HAMBY BY 920 PM CDT...

Edited by bingcrosbyb, 21 April 2011 - 09:06 PM.

 

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tennessee storm chaser
Posted 21 April 2011 - 09:31 PM

time frame from late monday into mid week going to be interesting to watch. looking at gfs and euro at this point... scream a major severe outbreak potential for the midsouth and tennessee valey region and perhaps into the deep south. kind of intersting to hear everyones thoughts on this setup. need to put a apb out on fred. going to be interesting to hear fred gossage thoughts on this sytem next week.
 

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tennessee storm chaser
Posted 21 April 2011 - 11:37 PM

well after glancing at the 0zgfs, it holds serve on a big time severe weather outbreak next week... seems like its going to come in two waves both look very dynamic fueled. the second one seems stronger. late tuesday into wed. timeframe. still very axious to hear mr. freds thoughts.
 

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smokedevil
Posted 22 April 2011 - 07:50 AM

Interesting wording from Meg...

I DON`T PUT A LOT OF FAITH IN
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS PAST THE FIRST FEW FORECAST PERIODS...BUT
FROM AN OVERALL PATTERN STANDPOINT BOTH JET DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE
FIELDS LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER. LONG CURVED HODOGRAPHS
SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.
 

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trency911
Posted 22 April 2011 - 08:55 AM

Hodographs are pretty nasty looking.
 

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trency911
Posted 22 April 2011 - 11:58 AM

12Z GFS is rolling in. GFS develops an ULL over Kansas/Missouri border and tracks it to southern Michigan, with the surface low tracking from central OK into the lower Ohio Valley. Strong vortex max and negative tilted trough pulls in a warm, moist airmass across the region with 60 Tds moving into the southern OH/IN/IL 12Z Wed with 65 Tds across a good majority of the Deep South/Southeast. There are even pockets of 70 Tds nosing north from southeastern MS into northwestern Alabama as the low continues to wrap up. A strong low level jet over 55Kts at 850MB with a 100KT jet streak at 500MB. SFC-500 MB shear AOA 80Kts along the front supports the potential for another widespread damaging wind event with embedded supercells possible. Hodographs impressive ahead of the front with clockwise signatures, if any storm forms ahead of the line they could go tornadic quite easily especially given low LCL/LFC.

Still 5 days out though...

Edited by trency911, 22 April 2011 - 02:21 PM.
 

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ARCC
Posted 22 April 2011 - 03:26 PM

Everything looks really good for a tornado outbreak. Strong instability, subtile forcing with the positive/neutral tilt trough, good dry slot at 700mb. However, the one thing right now I see changes that is the fact that according to the 12z GFS, winds are uni-directional at the surface to 850mb. We need the winds to back to the south more to get a good tornado outbreak.
 

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mwbwhorton
Posted 22 April 2011 - 04:47 PM

i know things can change but our local tv mets seem a little worried about this system they all said Tuesday needs to be watched carefully and could be a especially dangerous day....unusual wording for them as they tend to be conservative.
 

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djbarker
Posted 22 April 2011 - 05:32 PM

Conservatism tends to go out the window when there's been a pattern of destructive severe weather outbreaks.
 

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trency911
Posted 22 April 2011 - 07:00 PM

BMX:
Quote

THE BIG EVENT IS STILL SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND POSITION
OF SURFACE FEATURES. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE TWO WAVE OF STORMS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE MAY BE MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT...AS FIRST LINE OF STORMS SLOWS WEAKENS AND BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER NW ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT
BETTER FORCING AND SHEAR WILL HAPPEN ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LOW
AND SURFACE LOW DEEPENS UPSTREAM OF ALABAMA. THE SQUALL LINE AND
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND FORECAST HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY AS SHORT
WAVE TROF BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

 

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tennessee storm chaser
Posted 22 April 2011 - 08:37 PM

this pattern we have been in for few weeks and what looks like another buisy week or so ahead... its starting to remind me of the may of 2003 pattern somewhat.
 

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trency911
Posted 22 April 2011 - 08:42 PM

Quote

Dr. Greg Forbes Tue Apr 26. Severe thunderstorms and tornado outbreak in southeast MI, OH,
east and south IN, OH, west and central PA, west and central NY, west MD,
WV, southwest and north VA, DC, TN, KY, north GA, north half AL, north and
central MS, north LA, northeast TX, AR, south MO, southeast and south-central
KS, north and east OK.
 
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