Archive Severe threat April 26-27, 2011

[TW Archive]

TimHSV
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:50 PM

Fred Gossage, on 26 April 2011 - 07:11 PM, said:

This is going to seem like an alarmist type post... but folks that have followed me for a while know that I'm not the intentional hype-type... I try to just be straight and tell it like I think it is... and if I Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, I Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency... and learn from it.....

With that said, tomorrow is quite easily the most dangerous setup I've seen in the state of Alabama in the 17 years I have been studying weather.

I'll certainly agree with you Fred. Many parameters just off the charts

 

[TW Archive]

Fred Gossage
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:51 PM

xtreme weather, on 26 April 2011 - 07:47 PM, said:

when does mean/come around as arguing? .....if I took it the wrong way I think you know me well enough from over the years posting by now I would have had a completely different tone and wording

I *think*/or thought at least maybe we are on the same page as for greatest potential threat.....then again maybe not

Alright, sorry then. Misunderstanding.

 

[TW Archive]

RollTide18
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:55 PM

The storm in Hill County and Limestone county, TX looks hardcore. Should be producing a tornado right now...mean looking hook echo.
EDIT: Not showing the strong signature it was the last frame.

 

[TW Archive]

TimHSV
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:58 PM

Tornado Warned cell in Panola Co. Mississippi is a very dangerous HP. This area of Mississippi up yo Holly Springs, MS.is always "prime tornado" country geographically for some reason. Will be an area to specially watch..
Edited by TimHSV, 26 April 2011 - 08:00 PM.

 

[TW Archive]

xtreme weather
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:02 PM

Fred Gossage, on 26 April 2011 - 07:51 PM, said:

Alright, sorry then. Misunderstanding.

NP and I seeing/feeling the same concerns over parts of MS/AL potential

Can see they showers that tried to develop over SW AL quickly faded due to the cap as they tried to move N no hint of southward development of the line to our W and notta along the coastline appear to be wide open for business...

 

[TW Archive]

Katrina Runs
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:07 PM

xtreme weather, on 26 April 2011 - 06:43 PM, said:

IF this trend continues I think it is possible that over xtreme N MS, NW AL and central TN there could be the "junk" factor coming into play......in turn would lay down a boundry over central MS and W AL and act as a focal point for tomorrows action to fire around mid-day.....

W/gun to my head Jackson to Columbus, MS--Tuscaloosa, Huntsville, Cullman, Birmingham, Anniston to Montgomery (yes I know thinking tick farther south and east) AL in the bullseye.

In AL.......along I-20/59 to HWY 278 could be the "hot zone" give or take 50mi either side

BUT I CAUTION these are random thoughts/obvs EVERYONE must be weather aware tomorrow!

.....carry on

I've been reading about this system for the past week and yet I still have the butterflies over this one. School is going to be tense tomorrow.

 

[TW Archive]

TimHSV
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:10 PM

I had just saw this on the SPC Meso prodcuts page and was curious what they thought about CIN across the reminder of N. Mississippi

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN LA...EXTREME SERN AR...NRN MS...NWRN
AL...MIDDLE TN.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 270059Z - 270300Z

WW 215 HAS BEEN EXTENDED EWD ACROSS REMAINDER NRN MS AND WRN TN.
ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT 2
HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA...PERHAPS INCLUDING AREAS
CURRENTLY IN WW 215 THAT WILL STILL CONTAIN FAVORABLE BUOYANCY/SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.

POCKET OF RELATIVELY LOW-THETAE SFC AIR WITH DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S
F IS EVIDENT ATTM FROM NRN MS NEWD OVER MID TN AND SWD ACROSS NRN
AL. HOWEVER...STG LOW-LEVEL MOIST/WARM ADVECTION IS
FCST...ESPECIALLY JUST ABOVE SFC. LLJ IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN TO
50-65 KT RANGE ACROSS BROAD SWATH OF LOWER DELTA REGION INTO MID TN
THROUGH 06Z. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED JAN/SHV RAOBS AND RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CURRENTLY STRONG MLCINH OVER NRN MS WILL
WEAKEN...WHILE MLCAPE INCREASES REGION-WIDE TO 2000-2500 J/KG VALUES
NOW EVIDENT OVER WRN TN AND SRN MS. AS MID-UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENS
ACROSS OK...MID-UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THIS
AREA ALSO...WITH 55-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES BECOMING
COMMON. LLJ ALSO WILL ENLARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH
REACHING 300-500 J/KG RANGE. NET RESULT SHOULD BE EWD SHIFT/SPREAD
OF TORNADIC SUPERCELL REGIMES NOW OVER ARKLATEX REGION AND SWRN
TN/NWRN MS. DEVELOPMENT OF SVR BOW ECHOES WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT ALSO MAY OCCUR...GIVEN STRENGTH AND ANGLE OF DEEP-LAYER
WIND WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE FORCING...AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
CONVECTION ALREADY EVIDENT.

..EDWARDS.. 04/27/2011

 

[TW Archive]

vegaseagle
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:14 PM

Will these N. MISS. Storms stay strong into N. Alabama?

 

[TW Archive]

MikeP
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:15 PM

All I can say is if I wake up in the morning and the sun is shining, well....you know.

 

[TW Archive]

FlorenceWx
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:15 PM

Tim, could you explain what CIN is and what they are referring to with NW AL?

 

[TW Archive]

Evan
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:15 PM

TimHSV, on 26 April 2011 - 07:58 PM, said:

Tornado Warned cell in Panola Co. Mississippi is a very dangerous HP. This area of Mississippi up yo Holly Springs, MS.is always "prime tornado" country geographically for some reason. Will be an area to specially watch..

It had NROT of over 3.50 earlier. Amazing.

 

[TW Archive]

TimHSV
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:16 PM

T @cfordwtva: Trained weather spotter reported northwest of Batesville, near Sardis moving east at 40 mph. #msw\\\


ON the grounded reportedly...

 

[TW Archive]

TimHSV
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:19 PM

FlorenceWx, on 26 April 2011 - 08:15 PM, said:

Tim, could you explain what CIN is and what they are referring to with NW AL?

Just there is a CAP (lid) on the atmosphere that prevents convection from occurring in short. But they are saying that the CIN should weaken, which it has, and allow further development eastward towards Alabama

 

[TW Archive]

wxfan22
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:21 PM

The rotation just south of holly springs,ms has REALLY intensified over the last few minutes

 

[TW Archive]

Mason Dixon
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:25 PM

In situations like these, how often do weather offices send up balloons?

 

[TW Archive]

vegaseagle
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:27 PM

Mason Dixon, on 26 April 2011 - 08:25 PM, said:

In situations like these, how often do weather offices send up balloons?

Great question

 

[TW Archive]

swbamaweather
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:28 PM



SREF output below, valid at 7:00 p.m. tomorrow. This is the chance of the significant tornado parameter (STP) exceeding 5 units; the model gives that a 90 percent chance in the general area from Gadsden to Mobile. Understand a STP over 2 is very significant, and 5 or higher is pretty rare. This is off the alabamawx site james spann

 

[TW Archive]

mwbwhorton
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:29 PM

went out to eat any update on the supercell near shreveport someone mentioned a page or two ago? cap definately eroding got thunder&lightning here now....
Edited by mwbwhorton, 26 April 2011 - 08:36 PM.

 

[TW Archive]

FlorenceWx
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:29 PM

TimHSV, on 26 April 2011 - 08:19 PM, said:

Just there is a CAP (lid) on the atmosphere that prevents convection from occurring in short. But they are saying that the CIN should weaken, which it has, and allow further development eastward towards Alabama

Thanks Tim, so they're saying the CAP weakening will allow storms trending this way to continue or fire up even more? That would then stabilize things more for tomorrow right?

 

[TW Archive]

Pastor of Muppets
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:29 PM

This is supposedly a picture of a storm moving into Memphis this evening.......