Archive Severe Potential 4/3-4/4 (3 Viewers)


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I'm honestly surprised that so far the SPC has "only" 293 wind reports and 8 tornado reports...I personally was expecting around 15 tornado reports and 400+ wind reports. It definitely seemed more active last night than what the reports so far are showing. There was some pretty significant wind damage and I believe a confirmed tornado in western Indiana (mainly around Fountain, Warren and Vermillion Counties), but it seems to be unreported so far.
 

rolltide_130

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I'm honestly surprised that so far the SPC has "only" 293 wind reports and 8 tornado reports...I personally was expecting around 15 tornado reports and 400+ wind reports. It definitely seemed more active last night than what the reports so far are showing. There was some pretty significant wind damage and I believe a confirmed tornado in western Indiana (mainly around Fountain, Warren and Vermillion Counties), but it seems to be unreported so far.
It takes a couple days for all the reports to filter in. I think by the end it will be closer to that number.
 

Mike S

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I heard of a UAH chaser's car getting struck by lightning last night, but haven't heard any more about it. I think it was mentioned in passing while watching WAFF's Facebook live coverage last night.
 
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Up to 14 tornadoes confirmed (still not even including that one in Indiana which was photographed), three of them EF2. Solid 10 hatch event, and that's not to mention the wind.

While the overall gist of the forecast was spot-on, as usual the atmosphere had to troll the SPC a bit, with some pretty big holes in the reports over the moderate risk probability zone and the action ramping up again once the storms were east of there. Central MS, northern AL and eastern TN/KY in particular overperformed the probabilities by quite a bit.
 

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rolltide_130

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Up to 14 tornadoes confirmed (still not even including that one in Indiana which was photographed), three of them EF2. Solid 10 hatch event, and that's not to mention the wind.

While the overall gist of the forecast was spot-on, as usual the atmosphere had to troll the SPC a bit, with some pretty big holes in the reports over the moderate risk probability zone and the action ramping up again once the storms were east of there. Central MS, northern AL and eastern TN/KY in particular overperformed the probabilities by quite a bit.
Yeah I heard a LOT of bust calls, especially from chasers, but the 10% hatched performed how you should expect a 10% hatch to perform. As for placement, SPC gets burnt all the time on events E of the MS by placing the risk too far NW. It's very common for the highest risk not to verify where it was placed but further SE instead.
 

Mike S

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Yeah I heard a LOT of bust calls, especially from chasers, but the 10% hatched performed how you should expect a 10% hatch to perform. As for placement, SPC gets burnt all the time on events E of the MS by placing the risk too far NW. It's very common for the highest risk not to verify where it was placed but further SE instead.
SPC dropped the moderate later in the day, right as the event was unfolding. I never got a chance to read the discussion though.
 

Jacob

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They actually could have verified a high risk for wind across northern MS and AL. One was never issued, but they very well could have done so.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think it would've verified the high risk based on the lack of 65+kt wind reports.
 

WesL

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JSU posted a compilation of security footage from around the campus during the F3 tornado. Pretty amazing stuff especial starting at 6:39.

 

JayF

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This is from UStornadoes.com but this can't be right. We know there was the Tornado at JSU but it isn't listed here.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">April 3 tornado outbreak now up to 20 confirmed tornadoes. We&#39;ve also posted our 2018 tracker. <a href="https://t.co/eYip286Ovj">https://t.co/eYip286Ovj</a> <a href="https://t.co/mzMY1ipYT7">pic.twitter.com/mzMY1ipYT7</a></p>&mdash; U.S. Tornadoes (@USTornadoes) <a href="">April 10, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

JayF

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Thats right I have my timing mixed up. Its been a long month already LOL
 

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