Severe WX May 2019 Plains Severe Event

[Jimruns]

How concerning/relevant is the clearing back in West Texas?

 

[NorthGaWeather]

For those that don't know, bookmark this website for future use. http://www.mesonet.org/index.php

It is good information for the currently evolving warm sector airmass. Also, great for analyzing near storm environments when this outbreak gets underway. Mesonet sites have been destroyed by tornadoes in the past.

 

[warneagle]

I guess the last couple of HRRR runs have been a bit more cluster-y but still have a few hours of relatively discrete storms, which is more than enough time for things to get really bad in this kind of environment.

 

[warneagle]

This is a disaster waiting to happen.

 

[Equus]

Yeahhhh Texas is rapidly clearing. Ominously calm in the volatile warm sector. Still could get a lot of cell competition later but that clearing isn't what you want to see. Maybe that means fewer boundaries for cells to start spinning on but in this environment that doesn't matter much.

 

[bwalk]

This is the Texas Tech WRF at 5 pm today. Numerous discrete supercells with long updraft helicity tracks. This has bad news written all over it. Just makes you want to shake your head for some of these poor folks who will be caught in the middle of this.

[Source: Brian McKibben]

 

[warneagle]

First MD of the day is out. Watch is coming by 1 p.m. CDT.

 

[Equus]

That's some of the strongest and most ominous wording I've ever heard in a MCD ever. They really aren't shy with the V word today.

I can legitimately see a 45% TOR contour in that area in the 1630z outlook.

 

[warneagle]

Easy to understand why. This is the most dangerous setup in several years.

 

[warneagle]

Probably not a good sign when the Air Force is evacuating its planes from Tinker.

 

[Kory]

Probably not a good sign when the Air Force is evacuating its planes from Tinker.

Surprising considering they left 2 dozen F-22s get destroyed by Hurricane Michael at Tyndall.

 

[warneagle]

Surprising considering they left 2 dozen F-22s get destroyed by Hurricane Michael at Tyndall.

Well at least they learned their lesson I guess?

 

[Peter Griffin]

Geeze this is a terrifying situation unfolding. Oklahoma had been pretty quiet when it comes to tornadoes the last few years (relatively speaking). Looks like the sleeping giant is about to be awakened.

 

[Kory]

Omg the latest HRRR.

 

[Equus]

Good grief. That's the scariest run yet.

I had been pretty sure that the eastern TX panhandle would be ground zero buuuut now yikes for SW/C Oklahoma. Jaw dropping.

 

[warneagle]

The 15z HRRR would be a catastrophic outbreak. Wow. I have to wonder if they’ll go with a 45% sigtor at 1630.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Equus]

See before it looked like there would be cell interference but these latest runs are worryingly much more discrete. Seeing that the last significant failure mode possibility is cell competition...

 

[warneagle]

STP is maxed out over like a third of Oklahoma. I know some of it is due to contamination but still. Not sure I’ve ever seen anything like that.

 

[locomusic01]

That's a lot of kidney beans.