Severe WX May 2019 Plains Severe Event

[warneagle]

You couldn’t pay me all the money in the world to chase in Oklahoma today. I’m really scared that chasers are going to die.

 

[Equus]

Hearing wording that makes it seem that a 45% contour is almost certain for 1630z. We will find out soon

 

[warneagle]

You almost have to at this point. This is looking like the worst-case scenario. I assume the probabilities on the PDS watch will be close to maxed too.

 

[SilentShadow87]

This is honestly Dixie on the plains with LCLs and storm motions, will have super low massive wedges speeding by probably wrapped in rain and grungy cells. Combine that with extreme flooding likely to cut off a handful of escape routes and you've got a dangerous chase day.

The "Big Three" on 5/24/11 acted a lot like Dixie tornadoes as well. They were turbulent, fast-moving tornadoes under very low bases, and the El Reno and Washington tornadoes were rain-wrapped at several different points in their life cycles. Speaking of the El Reno tornado, it's almost unbelievable how similar its structure was to the Ringgold, GA tornado on 4/27 - as in, it was practically the same tornado picked up and dropped in the Plains. I have a side-by-side comparison of the two that I'll post tomorrow.

But honestly, if I had to give my two cents, the biggest danger today for chasers will be chaser convergence. It's reminding me of 5/31/2013 and while it was overshadowed by the TWISTEX team losing their lives, a lot of novice chasers also got stuck in traffic or smashed into other cars. The fact that the map of chaser soundings already looks like a parking lot at noon doesn't bode well at all. Prayers that they all stay safe. The last thing we want to see is a repeat of what happened to Kelley Williamson.

 

[bwalk]

A few people have noted that the 500/700mb winds are close to being perfectly parallel to their corresponding pressure contours. As a result, this could affect storm mode.

Is this a valid issue?

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Great new MCD for Central Oklahoma concerning a PDS watch. Can't link right this minute.

 

[South AL Wx]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0699.html

 

[warneagle]

Looks like the WPC has also expanded its high risk area to include the OKC metro as well. We could easily have both a disastrous tornado event and a disastrous flash flood event on the same day.

 

[warneagle]

Really hope some people take this advice to heart, especially given the source

 

[Equus]

New Day One... 45% probs. Only the 7th time ever we've gone above basic High Risk tor probs.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Looks like the 45% was issued.

 

[South AL Wx]

There is indeed now a 45% hatched TOR area on the latest SPC outlook:

 

[bwalk]

As the new data/model info continues to roll in validating and intensifying the OK outbreak this afternoon I guess it was inevitable that people start making the comparison.

 

[DaveFromGA]

 

[South AL Wx]

As mentioned earlier, the High Risk for flash flooding was also expanded to include the Oklahoma City area:

 

[Bama Ravens]

Tornado probabilities. Wow.

 

[Equus]

45% right into downtown OKC is something you never want to see

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Helicity]

Last 45% TOR probs was April 14, 2012 correct?

Also, not to deviate at all from the seriousness of today's threat, but I can't help but notice the newest SPC Day 1 looks like a Killer Whale.

 

[Equus]

Yup. Been quite a while.