Severe WX May 2019 Plains Severe Event

[Equus]

I'm hoping the most intense ones stay in between towns west of the population centers in central OK, but with super long trackers, statistically at least a few towns are probably going to get hit... it's a really unnerving feeling knowing that there are almost certainly at least a couple towns going about their morning business in the high risk area that are going to be in severe damage cleanup mode 12 hours from now. Would be nice to be wrong, but I WOULD like to see some big tornadoes over open country away from anyone cuz if an event this hyped busts, it's going to make the next dangerous setup a huge killer because people won't take it seriously...

 

[warneagle]

There are a couple of spots in west Texas where the VTP is already at 8. Yikes.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Agreed. Even days as violent as 4/24/11 can produce relatively low casualty impacts. The three strongest tornadoes (all were probably EF-5, but only one is official) affected the Western and Southern Oklahoma City metro. 12 people died in this event, which is far too many. However, the number could've been far higher. Hopefully we'll see low impacts to human life today. Houses can be replaced.

 

[Equus]

Observed soundings this morning already show ridiculous wind fields. 70s dews not far from southern OK at the moment... seeing some 78° DPs in southeast Texas this morning. Hopefully the threat is tempered somewhat by mesoscale shenanigans, but wow are the overall fields looking dangerous.

 

[TornadoFan]

SPC wording:

"A FEW OF THE BEST-ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS MAY REACH AN EQUILIBRIUM WITH THEIR ALREADY VERY FAVORABLE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENTS LONG ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN WIDE, LONG-TRACK TORNADOES."

 

[Equus]

Yeah the v-word is almost NEVER used, but both the SPC and NWS Norman are being quite liberal with it. This could be one of those days unfortunately.

 

[warneagle]

The other CAMs (aside from the 3km NAM) have trended toward a more cellular mode in this last run.

 

[Equus]

Agreement with the HRRR at this stage is not a good situation

 

[Xenesthis]

I think the HRRR will verify. I would bet on multiple EF4/EF5 tornadoes... I don’t think the SPC is over wording... actually the wording may be tepid after what happens today. Let’s hope most of these monsters stay out over open areas

 

[xJownage]

The convection in the Texas panhandle, including the one cellular storm, are all very elevated for now north of the warm front. The current lack of convection just makes today's threat more ominous...

 

[Equus]

Must be hard to determine precisely what kind of wording to use... 4/7/06 forecasted multiple long track violent tornadoes and we had none, 4/27/11 said a couple or few could be violent and we had fourteen.

 

[warneagle]

The current convection is a bit more extensive than suggested by the HRRR but unfortunately that probably won’t be a significant mitigating factor. There’s still a massive reservoir of instability at the Red River waiting to be transported north. That sounding from Midland gives a pretty scary picture of what the environment will look like over the main risk area in a few hours.

 

[Equus]

Given the ridiculous WAA I think it would take a lot more junk convection than usual to significantly mitigate things; best case it would slow the warm front and keep the threat maybe south of OKC but ai kind of doubt it. Best case scenario is gonna be cell competition and rapid upscale growth.

 

[Lori]

Praying for those is the path, we’ve got a few of our own chasing today, prayers for them as well!!

 

[warneagle]

I just really hope no one does anything stupid today (not implying that any of our folks would, of course). Between the fast storm motions and the sometimes sparse road networks in that part of the country, it would be very easy for people to get trapped by a tornado if they’re careless. I don’t want to repeat El Reno but the sheer number of people who will be out chasing a setup this volatile makes it all the more likely.

 

[xJownage]

Warneagle said pretty much exactly what I was about to say. I'm really worried for chasers today, this being a violent and fast moving setup, especially considering many of these cells may go HP fairly early. Chasers positioning in the inflow notch may find themselves in trouble quickly if something goes wrong.

 

[warneagle]

Looks like the elevated convection is starting to lift north as the warm front has made it to about I-44. 75/68 at Lawton but still only 66/63 in the OKC area. Destabilization is already underway in southern Oklahoma and if north Texas is any indication it’s going to proceed pretty rapidly. CAPE increased by 2000+ J/kg in the last three hours over a large area between about Lubbock and Wichita Falls.

 

[Equus]

This is honestly Dixie on the plains with LCLs and storm motions, will have super low massive wedges speeding by probably wrapped in rain and grungy cells. Combine that with extreme flooding likely to cut off a handful of escape routes and you've got a dangerous chase day.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Dewpoints are on average +2 to +4 over the last hour in South Central Oklahoma.

67 to 70 plus dewpoints are generally South of a Hobart to McAlester line.

 

[Equus]

So that's failure mode one vanishing right there. Pretty much only storm mode is left to temper the threat.