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Severe WX May 2019 Plains Severe Event

Somehow I knew as soon as I read the disco that it was Broyles' shift. Not that this setup doesn't warrant that kind of outlook, of course, but the man sure does love him some strong wording. In any event, gonna be really interesting to see how things look in the morning.

(Also, holy crap, hi TW! I'm a little embarrassed to say that, with everything going on, I totally forgot about this forum until just recently.)
 
I'd love to armchair chase this one but I'm gonna be heading out to the GOM this afternoon. I'll be back to read this thread next week.
 
locomusic01 said:
Somehow I knew as soon as I read the disco that it was Broyles' shift. Not that this setup doesn't warrant that kind of outlook, of course, but the man sure does love him some strong wording. In any event, gonna be really interesting to see how things look in the morning.

(Also, holy crap, hi TW! I'm a little embarrassed to say that, with everything going on, I totally forgot about this forum until just recently.)
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locomusic01 said:
Somehow I knew as soon as I read the disco that it was Broyles' shift. Not that this setup doesn't warrant that kind of outlook, of course, but the man sure does love him some strong wording. In any event, gonna be really interesting to see how things look in the morning.

(Also, holy crap, hi TW! I'm a little embarrassed to say that, with everything going on, I totally forgot about this forum until just recently.)
Click to expand...
must be putting lot stock in hrrr models...apparently spc putting lot in to the hrrr... if so... sure even rich Thompson would be this agresssive too... it warrants it
 
Given lack of widespread early convection there's a real shot of the warm front making it as far north as some of the more aggressive guidance
 
Equus said:
Given lack of widespread early convection there's a real shot of the warm front making it as far north as some of the more aggressive guidance
Click to expand...
Yeah, it’s already getting close to I-44. I could see it getting up to the OK/KS line at least.
 
As a few people have noted on twitter, the NAM has handled this morning convection better than the HRRR so maybe the NAM has a better grip on the system as a whole? Its solution would still be bad but not catastrophic like the HRRR.
 
Already a supercell popping east of Dimmitt. Doubt it’s rooted at the surface but if we’ve got them popping at 7:30 am it’s gonna be a long day.
 
Any chance of the HRRR not fully verifying would be great news for those in the highest risk areas tbh, it consistently wants to level Oklahoma multiple times
 
The High Risk has been expanded a bit with the latest update, and now includes Oklahoma City:

day1otlk_1300.gif
 
From the SPC:

A serious outbreak of destructive, tornadic supercells is likely over parts of this region this afternoon into evening, especially in
the high- and moderate-risk areas."


The parameter space over much of the region today
will support a threat of violent tornadoes, and the likelihood of
multiple significant (EF2+ events).
 
Newest HRRR (not that it matters much) isn't as ghastly as the images from earlier. However, it still erupts a string of pearls in the Texas Panhandle, with additional development across South Central Oklahoma. These supercells then pummel Western and Central Oklahoma.
 
Honesrly though this is a day where even a severe downtrend will still be a pretty dangerous day... even if tornado threat were to somehow collapse (with hodos like today and super low LCLs I doubt it's even possible for it to completely collapse) we are talking about historic flooding over much of OK so we are basically locked on to keeping the spooky 5/20 legacy going
 
Equus said:
Honesrly though this is a day where even a severe downtrend will still be a pretty dangerous day... even if tornado threat were to somehow collapse (with hodos like today and super low LCLs I doubt it's even possible for it to completely collapse) we are talking about historic flooding over much of OK so we are basically locked on to keeping the spooky 5/20 legacy going
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Oh no doubt. No matter the guidance, I would be absolutely shocked to not see several strong/violent tornadoes. Especially over SW/South Central Oklahoma, where a high population exists.
 
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