Severe WX May 2019 Plains Severe Event

[warneagle]

I guess the high risk decision is gonna hinge on whether we get better model convergence in terms of storm mode at 18 and 00z.

 

[TornadoFan]

18Z HRRR now has the warm front lifting north well into Oklahoma.

 

[Austin Dawg]

We just missed the actiity yesterday. Everything went north and our cap never eroded.

I wish I could run up the the panhandle or OK to chase tomorrow but I imagine there will be a ton of chasers already on the roads.

 

[warneagle]

We just missed the actiity yesterday. Everything went north and our cap never eroded.

I wish I could run up the the panhandle or OK to chase tomorrow but I imagine there will be a ton of chasers already on the roads.

Yeah, I'm really concerned about chaser convergence given that the storm motions are going to be relatively fast by Plains standards.

 

[Equus]

There are some chasers who are debating not even going for storm motion/intensity + convergence issues, and for the fear of coming upon catastrophic damage scenes if the event DOES verify in full and strike populated areas. Can't say I can blame them for that line of reasoning. I just hope I get off work early so I can at least armchair chase.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah, if it were me, I wouldn't do it. I just feel like the sheer number of people who will probably be out there adds enough of an element of risk to something that's already inherently very dangerous that it's not worth it. I wouldn't want to run the risk of getting stuck in a bad position but also I wouldn't want to obstruct people who are actually doing serious research in the name of taking nice pictures or whatever.

 

[warneagle]

Not really related to tomorrow but there have been several tornado warnings up in PA and NY today.

 

[Jimruns]

Question for the pros ahead of tomorrow:

I saw several comments on Twitter that open warm sector development in Plains events is not nearly as common as those in The Southeast.

Is this in fact accurate and if so, why?

 

[warneagle]

Several school districts in Oklahoma have already announced that they'll be closed, as has the University of Oklahoma.

 

[TornadoFan]

Several school districts in Oklahoma have already announced that they'll be closed, as has the University of Oklahoma.

Good call, in my opinion.

 

[warneagle]

Question for the pros ahead of tomorrow:

I saw several comments on Twitter that open warm sector development in Plains events is not nearly as common as those in The Southeast.

Is this in fact accurate and if so, why?

I would guess it has something to do with a stronger EML? I don't know though.

 

[warneagle]

Good call, in my opinion.

Yeah, it might prove unnecessary but better safe than sorry. I can't blame them for being gun-shy after what happened in Moore in 2013.

 

[Equus]

HRRR coming in with near apocalyptic multiple waves of cells, including a bunch through the middle of the day in Oklahoma then some really frightening cells blowing up in the TX panhandle by afternoon... we may have tornado warnings for 12-16 hours straight if worst case happens. There is no failure mode that completely eliminate threats; even super messy storm mode would still lead to a bunch of tornadoes and severe flooding.

If it's any indication of the trough we are dealing with, there's been a sustained occasional tornado producing supercell in California of all places, persisting for hours.

 

[Equus]

So uh... this speaks for itself.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah, wow, the HRRR is depicting a major outbreak.

 

[TornadoFan]

I'm really hoping this doesn't verify.

 

[Equus]

Know what's scary? That's just at 20z, and some of the nastiest looking cells are only then starting to develop to the west... the multiple all day waves thing is what gets me the most I think.

 

[TornadoFan]

Wonder if we'll see a high risk at the next update.

 

[Equus]

If there's been a setup in the last half decade that deserves it this one does; honestly since they put them out for some of the somewhat iffy setups in 2017 it'd be pretty wild to not see a High given these parameters. I noticed one met in Twitter who said he wouldn't disagree with a 45% tor prob contour but I guess that would probably only happen if all the CAMs agree on a sustained cellular mode.

 

[warneagle]

Wonder if we'll see a high risk at the next update.

If I had to put money on it I would say yes. I don’t have any sort of inside or expert info though of course.