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Severe WX May 2019 Plains Severe Event (4 Viewers)


Equus

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Messages
1,145
Location
Saragossa, AL
Oh yikes original tor MIGHT HAVE suddenly ramped back up right near Lewis; still a little messy on velocity. New meso definitely developing to west.

Very marginal TDS seems to have popped up just NE of Lewis under the couplet. Probably not nearly as intense as it was to the SW though.
 

Equus

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Messages
1,145
Location
Saragossa, AL
Off topic from tonight's issues but I think we need to be archiving model data for Monday's event, some of the parameters are absolutely petrifying and confidence is increasing that there could be a rather historic event to deal with across OK.
 

TornadoFan

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Messages
344
Location
Colorado
From the SPC regarding Day 4.

"An initial discrete mode capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, is
anticipated. If a discrete mode can be maintained, strong tornadoes
could occur. Upscale growth is eventually expected, with a strong
MCS then tracking eastward across OK and adjacent portions of
southern KS and north TX."
 

Equus

Member
Messages
1,145
Location
Saragossa, AL
Large trees down and some structural damage confirmed in Lewis from that monster cell half an hour ago. Based on small debris signature likely tornado damage rather than entirely RFD damage.

Still a PDS warning on it near Radium, despite poor radar appearance.
 
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Evan

Member
Messages
1,056
Location
McCalla, AL
Pretty much anywhere in OK/N TX on the NAM has absolutely bonkers simulated soundings

View attachment 1673
Convection earlier in the day, and the ability for the atmosphere to recover, (or cooler air filtering in too fast afterward) appear to be some of the potential concerns that could limit the main show later in the day. That adds somewhat to the difficulty of discerning storm mode, and could impact the probabilities of having discrete convection versus a messier type of convection.

That said, I have a hard time hanging my hat on that as a fly in the ointment simply because how that played out on 4/27 will forever be seared into my psyche. But, obviously, every event is different, and some of those concerns could limit the overall potential for discrete supercells with violent tornadoes. It's still a bit early to judge it as I'm sure all here are aware. As we get into the < 48 hour range I think we'll have a little bit better idea of how that might play out.

And, as we get much closer to the event, it will be interesting to see how the HRRR resolves the earlier convection, overall timing, storm mode, etc and how well it models the atmospheric conditions for later in the day. Sometimes the HRRR absolutely nails an event and other times it gets lost and stays lost.

I definitely think it is a high-end threat, and one of the better ones we've seen in a long time, but right now I don't quite think it's as certain as some of the higher-end events that many of us can call out by name. High-end potential is clearly there for Monday's event, but I also think the bust potential is quite high as well.
 
Messages
34
Location
Plainfield, Illinois
1676
1677
Definitely a rarity;

SPC AC 180730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST TX...WESTERN/CENTRAL OK...AND FAR
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including strong
tornadoes, are expected across portions of the southern Plains on
Monday.

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY...

...Synopsis...
Active upper pattern will continue on Monday as one shortwave trough
progresses through the Northeast while another ejects through the
base of the deep upper trough over the western CONUS late in the
period.

Subtropical ridging will remain in place over the Gulf of Mexico and
Southeast, resulting in the development of strong southwesterly flow
aloft ahead of the western CONUS shortwave. This strong flow will
remain in place throughout the day, likely increasing to near 100 kt
at 500 mb early Tuesday morning.

Surface pattern will feature a deepening lee cyclone over the
central High Plains with a dryline extending southward across the
eastern TX Panhandle and a warm front quickly moving northward
through OK.

...Southern Plains...
Guidance is in good agreement that the ingredients are in place for
a potentially significant severe weather event on Monday. A sharp
warm front is expected to move northward throughout the day,
starting from an early day position near the River Red and reaching
the OK/KS border by 00Z. Air mass south of this warm front will be
very moist (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s) and unstable.
Consequently, moderate to strong instability will likely to develop
across the eastern TX Panhandle, northwest TX and much of OK, even
if strong diurnal heating does not occur. Current expectation is for
temperatures in this region to reach the low/mid 70s by late
morning/early afternoon with some areas farther east reaching
mid/upper 70s.

Kinematic environment is even more impressive than the thermodynamic
environment. 60-70 kt of southwesterly 500 mb flow will gradually
spread eastward/northward across the TX Panhandle and into OK and
KS. At same time, a strong and persistent low-level jet will be in
place, with 40+ kt at 850 mb throughout the period. Surface winds
within the warm sector will likely be southeasterly at 15 to 20 kt.
All of these factors result in wind profiles very favorable for
discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including
significant tornadoes.


Given that overall large-scale forcing for ascent is minimal
throughout much of the day, much of the afternoon and evening
activity is currently expected to initiate along the dryline and
within the warm sector, with a discrete storm mode favored. As the
shortwave ejects out later in the period, a more linear MCS may
develop, resulting in a second round of severe thunderstorms Monday
night into Tuesday morning.

...Northeast...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a cold
front progressing across the region. Favorable low-level moisture
ahead of this front as well as strong unidirectional wind fields
will result in the potential for a few strong to severe storms.
Damaging wind gusts are the primary severe threat. Uncertainty
regarding coverage precludes higher severe probabilities with this
forecast.

..Mosier.. 05/18/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0822Z (3:22AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
 

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Equus

Member
Messages
1,145
Location
Saragossa, AL
First Day 3 MDT since 2015. Given underperforming events of years past, I'm not going to stress over it, as failure modes are always on the table, but definitely a very significant potential if everything lines up right.
 

Equus

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Messages
1,145
Location
Saragossa, AL
Another big boy tornado... debris signature on this one. Silver Valley may have just taken a direct hit

1679

Missing people and rescue effort in a destructive spin up tor in Geronimo, OK as well according to social media

Injury and "house demolished" in Ballinger on storm report page
 
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Austin Dawg

Member
Messages
85
Location
Austin Texas
It's going to be an interesting few days here in Texas. You can see actvity trying to get going out in front of the squall line in West Texas.

Things are really primed here even in Austin.

Humidity79%
Wind SpeedS 12 G 20 mph
Barometer29.73 in
Dewpoint73°F (23°C)
Visibility7.00 mi
Heat Index86°F (30°C)
Last update18 May 10:35 am CDT


nam_2019051812_006_30.43--96.98.png
 

warneagle

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Silver Spring, MD
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SKYWARN® Volunteer
Trying to think of the last plains event with kinematics this strong and...maybe it’s 5/31/13?

Edit: obviously I meant 5/31, not 5/30
 
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Equus

Member
Messages
1,145
Location
Saragossa, AL
It's always scary to see dynamics that would be at the upper end of climo for winter nosing into high end spring thermos. One saving grace for cities in the path could be if the warm sector is barely capped and cell mergers/messy storm mode develops, but there certainly is major outbreak potential
 

Equus

Member
Messages
1,145
Location
Saragossa, AL
Moving into an area nearing 150+ m2s2 0-1km srh, decent enough to get that classic line of couplets going I guess. Today seems highly likely to over-perform given how marginal a lot of people were making it out to be. Okay yeah sure the MCS is at least temporarily overturning a lot of the warm sector as expected, but when the MCS itself is spitting out tornadoes...
 

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