Evan
Member
This is why I've been waiting on the HRRR. It normally resolves storm mode the best of any of the CAMs. The solution depicted above is just about apocalyptic. Not good.
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Severe WX May 2019 Plains Severe Event
- Thread starter warneagle
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- severe southern plains
This is why I've been waiting on the HRRR. It normally resolves storm mode the best of any of the CAMs. The solution depicted above is just about apocalyptic. Not good.
Equus
Member
Fair points being made about the massive number of cells blowing up in the open warm sector reducing some threats due to cell competition, but I don't think that is going to make as big a difference as it does on marginal days. The threat lasts for all day in multiple waves, and even if cell competition hinders much of the afternoon action, the HRRR is showing a major after dark issue with massive discrete cells in SW OK and adjacent N TX W of Wichita Falls... and those could be the scariest ones of all. Definitely has the potential to be one of those historic days we talk about in hushed tones.
Not that May 20th isn't already a historic date for violent Oklahoma tornadoes, of course.
Not that May 20th isn't already a historic date for violent Oklahoma tornadoes, of course.
Shakespeare2016
Member
What wouldni
What would it take for SPC to issue a 60% hatched area for strong/violent tornadoes?
Equus
Member
Believe it or not they actually did go 60% on April 7th 2006 for NE MS/NW AL/south-central TN (which dropped a couple of F3s just to the NE of the highest risk area but otherwise was underwhelming)
4/27 was 45%; I'm honestly not sure if we ever see a 60% used again. I dont think 45% is out of the question by 20z though if the worst case starts happening.
TornadoFan
Member
Has there ever been a 60% hatched for tornadoes before?
Equus
Member
Equus
Member
NAM simulated sounding from west TX for 03z (for nasty after dark action) - I have no words for parameters like these. Just. Wow. Just enough capping to promise isolated cells... with extreme instability and shear.
seasonsofweather
Member
Looking like Arkansas tornado threat may be increasing a bit too along that warm front
SilentShadow87
Member
If I recall correctly, the SPC once said that the 60% hatched risk area is pretty much reserved for events where a generational (i.e. super outbreak-tier) event is expected.
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warneagle
Member
Yeah if they didn't go 60% on 4/27/11, I'm not sure when they would.
tennessee storm chaser
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If spc puts much stock in latest hrrr runs... they will put out high risk mornings update
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warneagle
Member
Should also note that flooding will likely be a very serious issue tomorrow as well, particularly in OK and KS. Wouldn't be surprised if the WPC went high risk for excessive rainfall.
tennessee storm chaser
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seems like last 60 percent tornado chance was back in April 2006... west Tennessee north ms area then
gangstonc
Member
Yes. It didn’t verify due to a very shallow layer of relatively cool and dry air at the surface. It was a funnel cloud outbreak. They just couldn’t get to the ground.
At least that’s my memory.
Equus
Member
They could easily have thrown in a small 60% contour at 1630 or 2000z on 4/27 and had it completely verify but I dont think the general public pays any attention to anything besides the overall outlook level. I don't see enough events being as clear-cut extreme with little failure modes to make >30% used very often. Since the probs changed in I think 2006, only four times they have gone over 30 (4/7/06 60%, 4/27/11 45%, 5/24/11 45%, 4/14/12 45%) and only twice before then (5/10/03 and 5/30/04)
I think that's getting a bit off topic though lol
I think that's getting a bit off topic though lol
TornadoFan
Member
HRRR looks to be the only model going with supercells. I think.
Equus
Member
Regardless of storm mode, I think we get some cells that drop significant tornadoes before upscale growth begins. The other CAMs are less bullish on lots of big isolated cells yeah but given the insane shear in place even linear segments are probably going to be dropping tornadoes... and late evening dryline stuff is still a big potential.
For the sake of Oklahoma let's hope the HRRR isn't on the right track because the 03z run is even more volatile
For the sake of Oklahoma let's hope the HRRR isn't on the right track because the 03z run is even more volatile
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Equus
Member
High Risk already on the 0600z.
The discussion mentions violent tornadoes. First high risk in two years and some of the strongest 0600z wording you'll ever see.
"This event should result in a significant threat to life and property" is not a sentence you want to hear in a convective outlook
The discussion mentions violent tornadoes. First high risk in two years and some of the strongest 0600z wording you'll ever see.
"This event should result in a significant threat to life and property" is not a sentence you want to hear in a convective outlook
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gangstonc
Member
Seems warranted. Hopefully it won’t verify.
Is there a thread or post for streaming of this event?
Equus
Member
05Z HRRR looks just as dangerous if not even MORE so. I've gotta get some sleep now yikes.
