Evan
Member
I'm really hoping this doesn't verify.
View attachment 1686
This is why I've been waiting on the HRRR. It normally resolves storm mode the best of any of the CAMs. The solution depicted above is just about apocalyptic. Not good.
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I'm really hoping this doesn't verify.
View attachment 1686
If there's been a setup in the last half decade that deserves it this one does; honestly since they put them out for some of the somewhat iffy setups in 2017 it'd be pretty wild to not see a High given these parameters. I noticed one met in Twitter who said he wouldn't disagree with a 45% tor prob contour but I guess that would probably only happen if all the CAMs agree on a sustained cellular mode.
What would it take for SPC to issue a 60% hatched area for strong/violent tornadoes?If there's been a setup in the last half decade that deserves it this one does; honestly since they put them out for some of the somewhat iffy setups in 2017 it'd be pretty wild to not see a High given these parameters. I noticed one met in Twitter who said he wouldn't disagree with a 45% tor prob contour but I guess that would probably only happen if all the CAMs agree on a sustained cellular mode.
What would it take for SPC to issue a 60% hatched area for strong/violent tornadoes?
What wouldni
What would it take for SPC to issue a 60% hatched area for strong/violent tornadoes?
If I recall correctly, the SPC once said that the 60% hatched risk area is pretty much reserved for events where a generational (i.e. super outbreak-tier) event is expected.What would it take for SPC to issue a 60% hatched area for strong/violent tornadoes?
seems like last 60 percent tornado chance was back in April 2006... west Tennessee north ms area thenYeah if they didn't go 60% on 4/27/11, I'm not sure when they would.
Yes. It didn’t verify due to a very shallow layer of relatively cool and dry air at the surface. It was a funnel cloud outbreak. They just couldn’t get to the ground.seems like last 60 percent tornado chance was back in April 2006... west Tennessee north ms area then
Seems warranted. Hopefully it won’t verify.High Risk already on the 0600z.