Severe WX May 2019 Plains Severe Event

[Equus]

I honestly fully believe there will be strong spin-up tornadoes on forced lines given parameters, but yeah the window for discrete cells seems about over unless something dramatic happens. Interested in seeing what happens on boundaries and outflow though.

 

[vanni9283]

Live streams of Guthrie/Midland storm?

 

[Equus]

Guthrie warning is a PDS for what it's worth

 

[Equus]

OKC about to be in cool stable air, at least unless the boundary lifts north again. Might go take a nap and wait to see if the dryline storms go upscale or remain a threat.

 

[Equus]

Storms trying to go up near Norman and Lawton, but lapse rates remain poor and the cold boundary is heading south to meet it.

Dryline storms still rotating, and growing SW to near Fort Stockton.

 

[mike36]

Looks like Oklahoma and especially OKC is transitioning mainly to a flood threat with some embedded tornadoes in the line as it moves through later tonight.

 

[warneagle]

what a weird day

 

[Equus]

High risk maintained... foooor a single tornadic supercell. Didn't expect that.

 

[warneagle]

That has to be the forecasting equivalent of going down with the ship, but I guess they're the professionals and not me.

 

[xJownage]

10% hatched would've more than covered this event. And with these parameters...sheesh. What the hell did we just witness guys?

 

[Equus]

Though there were potential failure modes (and the one that actually happened was not one of the expected ones) I don't blame the SPC for their strong wording given the absurd parameters, but it's going to look like a huge bust across much of the risk area with the benefit of hindsight

 

[SilentShadow87]

At this rate I'm honestly beginning to wonder if we'll ever see another classic Plains outbreak again...

 

[kcyalater]

First high risk in two years.

 

[bwalk]

what a weird day

Beyond weird.

 

[Kory]

Quite a bust. No one is complaining...at least I’m not.

 

[xJownage]

At this rate I'm honestly beginning to wonder if we'll ever see another classic Plains outbreak again...

when's the last classic plains outbreak we've actually seen?

Though there were potential failure modes (and the one that actually happened was not one of the expected ones) I don't blame the SPC for their strong wording given the absurd parameters, but it's going to look like a huge bust across much of the risk area with the benefit of hindsight

nobody's blaming the SPC for this event being a bust; I think we all thought it was going to be a massive event.

 

[Kory]

The much stronger cap on 18z sounding should’ve been the first red flag.

 

[champal3003]

With all the parameters that were screaming outbreak for today, I am relieved that it was a bust....it could have been a major outbreak with many lives lost. I just hope that the SPC does not back down and let this make them hesitant to issue high risk outlooks in the future because this could have really turned out bad if everything had fallen into place.

 

[Bama Ravens]

SPC is gonna take a PR hit for this one, whether that is warranted or not.

It’s hard to be mad when we avoided (so far) a day with major destruction and loss of life.

 

[Equus]

I let myself fall into the hype of this event; usually due to very few events really reaching their peak in recent years I pay little heed to significant outbreak forecasts. I almost canceled all of my plans today including work just to armchair chase and I am super glad I didn't...