Severe WX May 2019 Plains Severe Event

[Bama Ravens]

So what has held this event back?

 

[vanni9283]

Dryline is fairly discrete so far which is surprising given shear vectors. Spur storm has big potential short term.

Certainly signs on radar showing that.

 

[Equus]

Rapid development and strong meso E Midland

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Rapid development and strong meso E Midland

Looks like a violent tornado is coming with that one.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Tornado on track for Spur, TX.

 

[vanni9283]

Video of Mangum reminds me of videos of McConnell A.F.B.!!!

 

[bwalk]

Wow. The Altus to Lawton, Ok area just refuses to break. Nothing is being allowed to form in that area. The models had that area progged to be the most explosive area/atmosphere of this entire event.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Confirmed large tornado near Spur!

 

[Tennie]

Well, if there's one thing that verifies, it's definitely the forecasts for heavy rain and widespread flooding.

 

[bwalk]

So what has held this event back?

Some are saying an unexpected stout cap that refuses to break.

Jeff Duda says, "This could also be the classic case of "1 CIN in the 00Z OUN sounding is good enough to restrict CI because there is no other lift". We see that many times in C OK.

 

[Tennie]

KWTV is showing pictures of damage on its livestream.

 

[BayouWeatherGeek]

Video of tornado in Mangum fro earlier.

 

[Equus]

Very impressive BWER and large couplet W of Guthrie TX and multiple classic tornado warned supercells east of Midland. Oklahoma, however, is a barely severe linear mass of rain at the moment.

 

[kcyalater]

High risk is a high Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency.

 

[Equus]

Might see a few more significant tornadoes from the dryline, but so far this would have been covered by an Enhanced risk. The CAMs were awful, all of them, in warm sector development. If cloud cover hadn't kept the lapse rates down we would be shaking in terror at the radar screen but instead I might go take a nap if the dryline storms calm down since I stayed up late for the 6z outlook lol

 

[warneagle]

Large tornado moving toward Guthrie, TX.

 

[Equus]

Another large tornado SE of Midland. Four tornado warned highly impressive dryline supercells. I knew there would be some impressive storms there but I figured they'd play second fiddle to a major OK problem (even expecting TOO MUCH convection as a failure mode!) - instead they're about the only thing worth watching.

 

[mike36]

Most us weather geeks know many things can Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency an event. However, the general public will become complacent and point to the hype of this event and "nothing happening".

 

[Equus]

Yeah that's what frustrates me. WE know the failure modes but those in OK are going to be angry and lash out for overhyping without caring for the reason then possibly ignore the next serious threat. Busts increase the death toll of future events...

 

[warneagle]

Norman isn’t convinced the threat is over I guess