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Severe WX May 2019 Plains Severe Event

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Debris signature down. Large stovepipe near mangum. Looks to hit the north side of town.
 
Equus said:
Still, the CAMs had initiation well before now and a whole state filled with discrete cells. If things don't fire soon, we may just get junky upscale growth if anything even happens at all in the warm sector... definitely could have some nasty overnight issues but lots of very experienced folks are raising concerns that nothing happens in the warm sector. Too early to call of course but since nothing is even trying, I'm starting to lose confidence.
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Latest HRRR definitely buys into a consolidation into a linear threat -- it changed substantially from just 20z to 21z. I just don't know at this point. I can see that happening, but I actually think that the storm spacing isn't as bad as it could be. To be honest, at this point I'm kind of going to ignore the CAMs and just really watch the radar and satellite. Wouldn't be the first time the HRRR screamed discrete all day, changed its mind and started forecasting a linear transition, and then backed off back into a discrete prognosis.
 
This one supercell could easily go bonkers and produce a violent tornado family, but if it's the only really high end cell of the day, I still think the 45 won't verify over most of its swath at this point. That said, this setup DESERVED the hype; why stuff hasn't been getting going, we can look into later.
 
Not to mention that it's close enough to the radar that the radar beam is only a few hundred feet AGL at the couplet's location. Let's just hope that there's nothing worthy of note in its path...
 
Tennie said:
Not to mention that it's close enough to the radar that the radar beam is only a few hundred feet AGL at the couplet's location. Let's just hope that there's nothing worthy of note in its path...
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I can tell you from experience...where it currently is, there isn't.

It literally might be destroying some of the oil pump stations I've worked at south of Midland though.
 
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