Severe WX May 2019 Plains Severe Event

[bwalk]

10% hatched would've more than covered this event. And with these parameters...sheesh. What the hell did we just witness guys?

Hopefully, the ‘experts’ will do a thorough analysis so we can learn from this. Schools and businesses closed and people took off work. I imagine millions of dollars in work/school time productivity and retail revenue were lost due to this event. I have no problem with that from a safety perspective but can we learn something for ‘next time’ from this?

Usually people tend to just shrug their shoulders and move on. I just don’t see the value of not trying to learn from events like this. My .02.

 

[Evan]

The much stronger cap on 18z sounding should’ve been the first red flag.

In hindsight, sure. But at the time, that stronger cap tended to make us all believe that junk convection or an early round of stabilizing storms wouldn't happen, and thus the tornado threat would be even higher once the cap broke. It didn't help that the HRRR bought into that 100% and said Oklahoma is going to get raked by tornadic supercells once the cap broke.

Maybe it was group-think and everyone only saw the potential downside of a stronger cap instead of the potential upside that a cap might prevent convection altogether. I simply don't know, but I think we'll find out it was more than just the capping situation over the high risk area in OK. Mid-levels were also a good bit warmer than forecasted.

 

[Evan]

I let myself fall into the hype of this event; usually due to very few events really reaching their peak in recent years I pay little heed to significant outbreak forecasts. I almost canceled all of my plans today including work just to armchair chase and I am super glad I didn't...

Absolutely going to be a learning experience for me.

I was more skeptical 48-72 out and thought the bust potential was moderate to high because of storm mode issues or early convection causing problems. When the HRRR came into range and consistently showed discrete supercells I became less skeptical.

Then, when early convection didn't seem to be an issue because of the stouter cap, I jumped all the way into believing that the risk was even higher and that the bust potential had decreased. Didn't see the forest for the trees. The question should have been why wasn't the convection firing like the HRRR showed, and what issues existed along with the stouter cap?

Lesson learned. And if you live by the HRRR you die by the HRRR. Shouldn't put your marbles all into one basket...

 

[Equus]

Couplet rapidly wrapping up over Tulsa.. maybe not over entirely

 

[Timhsv]

 

[SilentShadow87]

when's the last classic plains outbreak we've actually seen?

Probably 4/14/2012 or 5/24/11 depending on your definition.

 

[Equus]

Power flashes just N of Tulsa metro in rapidly developing supercell cluster there. Likely TOG. That ramped up fast

 

[Equus]

Nice hooking supercells with low level mesos extremely close to Tulsa's radars. Figured we'd get a nighttime surprise or two.

 

[Kory]

You take this out the Plains and put it in Dixie, it probably wouldn’t have failed via cap break failure.

Much closer to the mid level source for EMLs. That’s why I’d much rather messy convection out in the Plains because failure mode is often cap break failure.

 

[xJownage]

Since i started following things...2008 had may 24 kansas wedgefest among several other days, 2009 didn't really have any (april 29 bust), 2010 had may 10, 2011 had may 24, and 2012 had april 14. Since then, when have we had a day where we've had multiple long-track supercells with strong tornadoes? We've had some strong tornadoes and incredible events (June 16, 2014 comes to mind) but nothing on the scale we normally saw.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Damaging tornado on the ground southeast of Locus Grove, OK.

 

[Evan]

Damaging tornado on the ground southeast of Locus Grove, OK.

Yeah, there's a clear debris ball and major CC drop. Not a good situation. I was about to post something a few minutes ago that the storms between OKC and Tulsa have a very good chance at producing tornadoes over the next few hours.

 

[Equus]

AMAZING debris ball on that thing wow

 

[Evan]

Tornado emergency for Leach.

 

[xJownage]

Tornado looked to weaken and dissipate just moments before smashing leach. Thank god, that might be the strongest radar signature I've seen all year.

 

[Equus]

That's a taste of what we could have had all day, very scary. No doubt violent potential there. However it almost certainly DID hit structures off to the west so damage reports will surely start coming in soon.

 

[xJownage]

It looked like it was already showing another meso right after the first one occluded, but now it looks like everything's got undercut by the RFD.

 

[Equus]

Late night one shot wonder? I'm concerned that the cells near Wichita Falls are eventually going to pull a stunt like that in the middle of the night when they reach that part of the state. Decently high probs tornado watch in place overnight for much of central OK.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Looking a satellite imagery there was very thick canopy of trees in its path. That was most of that debris signature.

 

[Dtjet]

Hopefully, the ‘experts’ will do a thorough analysis so we can learn from this. Schools and businesses closed and people took off work. I imagine millions of dollars in work/school time productivity and retail revenue were lost due to this event. I have no problem with that from a safety perspective but can we learn something for ‘next time’ from this?

Usually people tend to just shrug their shoulders and move on. I just don’t see the value of not trying to learn from events like this. My .02.

I agree with you 100%,, I do not see just Shrugging todays events off, I do believe all of this will be analyzed for a few days.