Severe WX March 29-30, 2022 Severe Event

[Bamamuscle]

Is this misinformation? I haven’t heard a local met say that this is a low risk storm system. Did I interpret it wrong?


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[Equus]

I think that's implied to mean specifically very low risk of discrete cells; we're all going to have to deal with the line but probably not many discrete cells over N AL

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Is this misinformation? I haven’t heard a local met say that this is a low risk storm system. Did I interpret it wrong?


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Low risk of discrete supercells with long-track violent tornadoes...not severe weather in general.

 

[Bamamuscle]

Low risk of discrete supercells with long-track violent tornadoes...not severe weather in general.

It didn’t give off that vibe though. He should clarify it. This thing may catch folks off guard tomorrow. I just left a staff meeting at my school and no one knew about the storms tomorrow.


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[Former Member]

It didn’t give off that vibe though. He should clarify it. This thing may catch folks off guard tomorrow. I just left a staff meeting at my school and no one knew about the storms tomorrow.


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Well, they aren't paying attention to what the potential is then. If a derecho is realized it can cause much more widespread damage than a tornado threat in many cases.

 

[MichelleH]

Is this misinformation? I haven’t heard a local met say that this is a low risk storm system. Did I interpret it wrong?


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Well, the fact that he is saying that makes me worry about tomorrow more. He's not exactly a severe weather expert. (Trying to be nice.)

 

[Bamamuscle]

Is this misinformation? I haven’t heard a local met say that this is a low risk storm system. Did I interpret it wrong?


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Here’s his reply to my question.

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[Equus]

People tend to take the risk of wind much less seriously if said wind is straight and along a QLCS instead of spiraling around a tornado, and that's a dangerous mentality. At least supercell tornadoes can be tracked effectively but with a QLCS/decrecho you got a wall of wind a couple hundred miles long tossing thousands of trees onto cars and buildings and causing much more widespread power outages than a supercell can muster up, all the while spitting out a handful of nearly impossible to predict tornadoes. Not at all a fan of strong QLCS/derecho days, they're highly under-respected as to the degree of impact they can cause. Tomorrow has the strong potential to be a very unpleasant day for a lot of people

 

[MichelleH]

OK, I'm not good at playing nice. He's an inept, narcissistic idiot who posts forecasts for North AL, even though he's up on the East Coast, because he thinks he's better than the mets in Huntsville. Well, maybe if he hadn't blown off the threat coming on 4/27/11 and went to a climate change conference on that day instead of doing his job as chief met at WHNT, he might not have gotten fired.

 

[MichelleH]

People tend to take the risk of wind much less seriously if said wind is straight and along a QLCS instead of spiraling around a tornado, and that's a dangerous mentality. At least supercell tornadoes can be tracked effectively but with a QLCS/decrecho you got a wall of wind a couple hundred miles long tossing thousands of trees onto cars and buildings and causing much more widespread power outages than a supercell can muster up, all the while spitting out a handful of nearly impossible to predict tornadoes. Not at all a fan of strong QLCS/derecho days, they're highly under-respected as to the degree of impact they can cause. Tomorrow has the strong potential to be a very unpleasant day for a lot of people

I would much rather have the threat of supercells, that like you said, easier to track and gone quickly. Long-term high winds with my neighbor's unstable trees...me no likey.

 

[TileDude]

For him to say North Alabama has a slight risk of damaging winds is out of line with everyone else that is much more familiar with the situation.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

For him to say North Alabama has a slight risk of damaging winds is out of line with everyone else that is much more familiar with the situation.

sounds like been sleeping under a rock last 24 hours or so lol

 

[bjdeming]

People tend to take the risk of wind much less seriously if said wind is straight and along a QLCS instead of spiraling around a tornado, and that's a dangerous mentality. At least supercell tornadoes can be tracked effectively but with a QLCS/decrecho you got a wall of wind a couple hundred miles long tossing thousands of trees onto cars and buildings and causing much more widespread power outages than a supercell can muster up, all the while spitting out a handful of nearly impossible to predict tornadoes. Not at all a fan of strong QLCS/derecho days, they're highly under-respected as to the degree of impact they can cause. Tomorrow has the strong potential to be a very unpleasant day for a lot of people

Thing is, there are no exciting visuals - a movie called "Wind Storm" isn't going to sell tickets (though "Wall of Wind" might, if they could show the onrushing wall somehow). People think they know the wind, too; derechos aren't common enough to show them how wrong they are.

 

[Equus]

Yeah except for shelf clouds there's not even much to look at and we won't even get that looks like being an after dark event; just no good all around. People forget non tornadic events very quickly here. I even remember the super nasty wake low wind event in 2009 that took out power for a week but most take no notice of wind potential unless there's explicitly a tornado warning

 

[warneagle]

By my count, the only wind-driven high risk in the Deep South was 2 May 1997. Not sure they'd pull the trigger on that for tomorrow but it seems like there's pretty good reason to be confident in a significant derecho event.

 

[brianc33710]

OK, I'm not good at playing nice. He's an inept, narcissistic idiot who posts forecasts for North AL, even though he's up on the East Coast, because he thinks he's better than the mets in Huntsville. Well, maybe if he hadn't blown off the threat coming on 4/27/11 and went to a climate change conference on that day instead of doing his job as chief met at WHNT, he might not have gotten fired.

He went on a climate change conference on the day of that generational event??? It wasn't like no 1 knew that was coming in advance! What an idiot! Jason Simpson's definitely an upgrade!

 

[Bamamuscle]

From what another forum said the SPC has never gone higher than moderate for even the worst forecasted derechoes.

He went on a climate change conference on the day of that generational event??? It wasn't like no 1 knew that was coming in advance! What an idiot! Jason Simpson's definitely an upgrade!

This is banter but Jason no longer works for WHNT. He went into the private sector.


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[Equus]

Wind-driven 60 hatch High Risk days aren't super rare in the upper Midwest and Ohio Valley but they are quite rare here, they would verify for quite a few derecho events in this region but SPC tends to max out at 45 hatch/moderate for some reason in the southeast. Lots of trees to rack up storm reports to easily verify higher probabilities than are issued for. Interested to see if they go for it.

 

[Marshal79344]

Speaking on the tornado threat only, I've got a bad feeling that we will see a bad tornado come out of the southern more semi-discrete mode, especially late in the evening in the Mobile and Florida Panhandle region as broken supercells and a semi-discrete mode are expected to interact with better wind shear and kinematic support as the night goes on. There will undoubtedly be multiple spin-ups within the line, but those will probably be very hard to track and see.

 

[brianc33710]

I remember way back we had tornado warnings in storms in February 1990 & March 1991 that turned out to be 100+ mph straight line wind events.